Get a GRIP: Ignore SUSA, Strategic Vision, Mason-Dixon...

[TruthIsAll]

Trust Zogby, ARG, Research 2000 and...Gallup, when they try to make up for their skewed internals.

I will go out on a limb here: Kerry is doing even better than tonight's Election Model, which projects him a winner with 314 EV and 51.2%.

All POLLS, REPUKE AND DEM, UNDERSTATE KERRY'S NUMBERS.
I WON'T GO INTO THE REASONS. YOU PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW A FEW.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ChipTheShrub]

1. I've been lurking here Truth

and thank God for you! I've been on other sites and everybody is praising these polls! How dumb do they think we are?

[Kierkegaard]

3. Let them get all squishy over these idiotic polls.

Won't they be in for a surprise on Nov 3rd?

[Longhorn]

4. Welcome to DU!

:hi:

TIA is one of our treasures!

[newyawker99]

17. Hi ChipTheShrub!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[deadparrot]

2. Is SurveyUSA GOP, too?

I know the other two (and Gallup, a good portion of the time) are.

[DaveinMD]

6. SUSA

The main problem is how they poll. Its all automated. This method is highly unreliable. I would counsel my clients not to hire any pollster that polls that way.

[deadparrot]

10. Oh, okay. Thanks. eom

[Steelangel]

5. Indeed. That's what I told others many times..

but people tend to be panic about it *sigh*

Thank you for posting this topic.

[joanne]

11. We;lcome to DU!

:hi:

[Not Me]

7. I think you are right.

My next door neighbors, she: Dem, hispanic, didn't vote in 2000; he: Rep, anglo, voted for * in 2000.

They pulled up in their driveway and were excited about just having come back from voting FOR KERRY. (The know we are JK supporters by the lawnsigns, bumperstickers, and oh yeah, we're gay.)

Bottom line, I would not have counted them among Kerry or likely voters.

btw, I always ask people WHY they are voting the way they do.
Her response: "I am tired of his lies." Him: "Bush has really made a mess in Iraq."

[indyjones1938]

21. yeah but

keep in mind that in 2000 an est. 4 million born agains/evangelicals stayed home from the polls because of the 11th hour Bush DUI bombshell.

4 million voters is roughly equal to 4% in national polls.

Those 4 million evangelicals will be back with a vengeance this year and then some given Ralph Reed's GOTV efforts.

Dem registration efforts since 2000 have been at a net 4 million disadvantage. I realize that these anecdotes of "so-and-so-diehard-Republican-since-Herbert-Hoover" voting for Kerry this year are encouraging, but unless our new voters and registrants surpass 4 million it's not going to matter much.

[leftynyc]

23. That 4 million voter # was put out by Rove who I

wouldn't believe if he told me it was daytime.

[Spiffarino]

8. We all need to chill

Unless they show an enormous skew to one side or the other, polls are virtually meaningless. What counts is work, work, work. Get out and stomp some turf. Get Democrats out to vote. Take them to the polls if necessary, but don't let them get away with not voting.

[tritsofme]

9. On what basis should one trust Zogby Interactive polls

over someone like Mason/Dixon?

Or should we only lend credibility to polls whose results we like and them declare them GOP bought and paid when they return data we dislike?

[NMDemDist2]

12. Democracy Corp

http://www.democracycorps.com/pollingcharts/updatedpollingreport17.pdf

[BillZBubb]

13. Yep, they are all GUPER polls. The outcome is never in doubt.

Repugs always lead in GUPER polls until election day.

[xray s]

14. better indicator...look where Kerry's going...

Looks to me Kerry's internals must look good and now he is going after states Bush hoped to win.

http://www.johnkerry.com/ontheroad/

Reno, NV
Las Cruces, NM
Pueblo, CO
Boca Raton, FL

[Poiuyt]

15. I can never understand your statistics, TIA, but I still trust you

I don't know why, maybe I shouldn't, but I do.

The post that made me happiest was a couple of days ago when someone heard Paul Begala speak. He said that he had seen private polls that were supposed to be very very reliable. They showed Kerry with a good lead and he said that we really didn't have to worry (or something like that). I'm guessing that these were one of the polls that the candidates have taken.

[wanpete]

16. will do and thanks for reminding us to keep our heads up!

:toast:

[Roland99]

18. IGNORE ALL THE POLLS

Damn, people...half of each page is some damn thread about a poll!

[Stuckinthebush]

20. Polls are important

And the major pollsters are quite accurate as the election gets closer.

Keep an eye on Zogby in the next few days.

[Roland99]

22. At this point in the game, polls aren't going to matter

People up here froth at the mouth when some new poll shows a 1point Kerry drop.


It's madness.

[janx]

19. You pretty much just affirmed what I've been thinking about

how/why some Dems are still insisting that this race in "neck and neck"...