Are we overlooking something? Question about polls

[TheFarseer]

Alot of people on here say that the polls are tilted towards bush and some obviously are. For instance, that poll that had bush ahead in Wisconsin 52-38 when Gore won it in 2000 was clearly not reliable. I've also heard that Kerry isn't doing as well as Gore with black voters and single women. Is it possible that these demographics are working to make the poll numbers what they are and not some sort of polling mistake as some people on here think? Sorry to be a downer but I've heard this line of reasoning a few times now and I just wanted to see what people think.

[JohnnyCougar]

1. From all I've seen, Kerry is doing great with single women and blacks

Rove releases these "reports" to energize Bush volunteers and campaign workers. Nothing else. I wish people would stip pining about polls here. They're not always accurate.

[Pirate Smile]

2. Zogby has said the trend regarding Blacks is as good for Kerry as

it was for Gore. There have been a lot of polls lately that actually show Kerry is consolidating his base and getting the gender gap back, almost 90% of the Black vote, the gap favoring Kerry from young people, a positive gap for Kerry from Catholics, etc.

I'll have to look for those polls. There were quite a few with a lot of very encouraging trends.

Multiple polls have Bush's approval rating at 44% - very low.

[sandnsea]

3. Demographics look good

We do, in fact, have women, minorities, gays, youth, seniors, and even Catholics. I have no idea why these polls say what they say, I think the media just wants people to keep watching. With all Demographics, including Catholics, there's just no logical way all these states could be this close or have Bush ahead. I think it's just media games.

[pinkpops]

4. Well, if they were asking the same people the same

questions over and over I would conclude these are very fickle people. But I believe it is a different group each time, selected by whatever methodology is used by the particular poll, all by telephone. With the much-reported reliance by many folks on cell phones and answering machines, and with the margins so close, I don't see how they serve much purpose besides their inherent "push" on those who follow them. And fact is, most folks are so entrenched they can't be pushed.

[smiley_glad_hands]

5. Kerry is up with White Catholics, Women, Young Voters, & Blacks.

The same polls that the media triumphs (gallup..) are the ones that were least accurate in 2000. Kerry will win in a landslide.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Kerry share of women's vote is rising. Ignore polls +tive or -tive. GOtV

Get out the vote.

[tedoll78]

7. I'll level with you.

Here's what I think will happen:

- Kerry will win all of the Gore states, with a few exceptions perhaps.

- The first shaky Gore state? New Mexico. I've seen some pretty un-encouraging polls coming out of there. But don't fear.. if we lose NM and win NV, we break even (5EVs apiece).

- Nevada looks likely. Early voting (which tends to help the GOP) has tilted about 5% in favor of the Dems. We've gained ground on voter registration by party, and our turnout forces there are excellent.. especially now that early voting is available.

- Ohio looks likely now. Four new polls out this week show Kerry up in Ohio, albeit narrowly. Gallup's registered voters model shows Kerry now up by a whopping 6%, for what it's worth. Add those 20EVs to our column.

- Wisconsin seems to be coming home. Both a Zogby poll and a Wisconsin Public Radio poll give Kerry leads there this week. the Senate race has tilted fully into our side, so that might actually function with upticket coattails in our favor.

- Iowa looks weird. Some polls put Kerry ahead, while others put Bush ahead. Flip a coin, but watch this: the GOP registered 9000 new voters this year. The Dems registered 50000. Yup, you read that correctly.

- Also about Iowa - about 70% of the early ballots were cast by Dems.

- New Hampshire is looking like Kerry country. Gore lost the state by a mere 8000 votes in 2000, and Kerry's workers from Massachusetts have been flooding the state. Most polls show Kerry slightly up there, and Bush's vote ceiling is almost always 47% - pretty deadly for an incumbent.

My real opinion is that new voter turnout will make this election a lot easier than many think. These new voters are about 2-to-1 in favor of Kerry, and the vast majority of polls don't include them in their surveys. I'm usually skeptical about claims of "tons of new voters," but the registration numbers tell me that this is real and not some made-up phenomenon. Our ground game this year, judging by those numbers, is better than the GOP's. And we have all of those 527 groups on the ground in key states, ready to go.

So keep the faith. I refuse to tell you that we'll definitely win, but I will tell you that I think we're in good shape. Cheers! :hi:

[Pirate Smile]

8. Here is a DU thread that lists a bunch of t;he new polls.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1135274