Looking over RealClearPolitics' LV battleground numbers, bad news and very

[Guaranteed]

good news, in my analysis:

Let's do the bad news, first.

Iowa isn't looking very good, at least by the LV polls RCP has posted, even when factoring in the challenger bump, and taking out the totally ridiculous Mason-Dixon poll that has Bush up by 5 points in NM, 10 in Nevada and 3 in NH (have a look at it across the BG states- they're ALL skewed toward Bush). They don't have many polls posted, though, for Iowa, and you never know.

The really good news, is this, though:

It looks like we're going to win Ohio, and, very likely, Wisconsin, too. PA's also locked up in our favor. The reason this is good news is that even if we lose Iowa AND NM (NM looks like a real toss-up, probably the least predictable of all the states), if we take Ohio and Wisconsin (assuming we win MN, which is looking very good for Kerry), all we need is NH (or FL or NV or any of the leaning-Bush states that we've counted out) in order to win.

That, to me, is awesome news.

I think we're going to win.

Have a look for yourself, but look very closely- it's kind of unnerving at first.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

1. here's my take

Wisconsin is ours, PA is in the bag, Iowa also, Ohio - Yes, but I think the re-thugs have something up their sleeve the way they talk about winning it, die-bold maybe? NM - 80% chance in my opinion. NH - Kerry, FL - up in the air.

[Guaranteed]

2. If we get all those, we win easy. nt

[archineas]

3. ohio and bbv

i live in ohio, and it's my understanding that only 3 rural counties will be using electronic voting, and even then, i'm not sure those counties are using diebold machines.

i know that i'll be voting with the usual punch card ballot...

j

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. I think the damage is going to come through the bogus voter

registrations. In florida, they duped students to registration forms that change their party. Now, the kids who have registered in two counties, may have the legitimate and illegitmate ballots invalidated.

[Norquist Nemesis]

18. New Mexico's showing some pretty big problems

with BBV. On another GD04 thread is a post about a woman who went to vote, pushed Kerry first time and green X showed up next to Bush, she cleared tried a second time...same thing. It took the third time before it correctly showed Kerry.

Of course, this was before she touched the 'cast my vote' part on the screen, but there's still no record. It's hard to say exactly how it was recorded.

[cthrumatrix]

5. rethugs are down to "theft as their only option"....and pushing shit polls

[bushwakker]

6. isn't rcp a rw site?

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. Yes. One of the guys from RealClearPolitics.com was on C-SPAN

this morning, via phone, and said that he and his business partner were both RIGHT of center. He also said that the Mason-Dixon Polls are the BEST ones for accuracy and fairness. I know nothing about Mason-Dixon polls so I don't know if what he says is true. Anyone know anything about them?

[DemocracyInaction]

7. I think we are going to win Iowa. In fact, Iowa is more do-able than

Wisconsin. Wisonsin is the one that has been teetering for months. If Wisconsin is coming around, you can be sure that Iowa is doing just fine. There is a strong union vote there and Vilsak will be beating the bushes for Kerry.

[lefthandedskyhook]

8. NM update

This state is divided into 5 voting segments -- 2 dem, 2 rep, 1 swing. Sandoval county (where I live) is the swing segment and will almost certainly decide the presidential race for the state. The volunteer effort is burning rubber here and is out-pacing our opponents by a factor of 5. New registrations, early voting, and absentee ballot numbers are WAY up (NM is now one of the most highly registered states). The GOTV effort is truly organized and will probably win it for us on Nov. 2 as it did in 2000. Its not over 'til its over, but there is every reason for optimism.

[in_cog_ni_to]

10. Greg Palast said that NM will be this years FL debacle.

:( He said if he had to choose a state where "Dirty Tricks" will take place, he chooses NM. I do hope he's wrong. :scared:

[lefthandedskyhook]

12. He is at least partly wrong

Election protection here is formidable. I voted absentee, but Palast had me worried about my vote being counted. The election protection folks informed us that all we have to do is check our names against the voter rolls after the election. In any close state this double check will expose dirty tricks. We had a Q & A period at a training event and they had answers for everything the audience brought up. Its still a fight, but the outlook is not as bleak as Palast presents it.

The new voting machines are absolute crap. An attorney explained on the radio yesterday that when she voted it took as many as 3 attempts to get the correct box to light up. Thankfully, the volunteers at the polls will be focused on prevention of all errors.

[in_cog_ni_to]

13. That's good to hear!

I'm glad we're prepared!

[annabanana]

14. check this thread for early NM problems

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1138123

machine problem warrents a closer look NOW.. before 11/2

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. We can win without NM (and Iowa, Florida, etc...)

This map illustrates what BullGooseLoony just told us.

[lefthandedskyhook]

16. Yes, heard about that

This report is part of the reason I think we can prevent serious trouble. With enough volunteers and the right instructions, even these horrid machines will not ruin this election. *crosses fingers*

[Teaser]

11. About Iowa...

Jerome Armstrong of Mydd.com has this to say:

From what I've read though, the Vilsiak machine in Iowa is the best in the nation, we've had primary's there with every Dem counted and accounted for, and working the state now 4 years straight. The early voters for Dems are going to have in excess of a 50K (could be as high as 80K I've read) lead heading into election day. It would take a massive slew of Republican voters to overcome what the Dems are building in Iowa.

So we may be OK.

Good news on the other fronts, though.

[CornField]

17. About Iowa

IOWA: Added 80,795 voters overall, an increase of 3.9 percent. Democratic voters signed up at more than twice the rate of overall growth, adding 48,561, a 9 percent increase. Republicans added only 6,487 voters, up less than 1 percent.

Chin up!

[WI_DEM]

19. has Mason-Dixon shown one state for Kerry yet?

if not, that says alot.