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In 1980, the Iranian Hostage crisis was brewing and many "pundits" thought if President Carter could get the hostages home before the election it would help him. Here is what happened to that good and honorable man. In 1980, as I recall it, in the last weekend, there was a "breakthrough" if certain condidtions would be meant--the hostages would come home. Carter cancelled his weekend campaign activities and went back to the WH where he studied the developments, then he held a press conference and said pretty much that while things were encouraging--he couldn't accept all they wanted.
Well, going into the weekend, Carter was picking up strength in polls he lost during the final debate when this happened. It got the entire country thinking about the hostages again and how they had been prisoners for about a year. Carter lost momentum and beginning that Sunday his poll numbers sank and we know the rest.
This bin-Laden tape is not a "October Surprise" which helps Bush because it reminds the American people of what Kerry has been stating all along--if we hadn't diverted attention from Afghanistan, there is a good chance Bin-Laden would not still be at large.
IMO, this helps bolster Kerry's arguments and is a set back for Bush.
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