Kerry is getting majority of "undecideds" near end of campaign...

[kentuck]

Since the beginning of the campaign in Iowa and NH, there have more "undecideds" than the number that supports most of the candidates. When one added up all the support of all the candidates, the total was usually between 60 and 70% of the total possible turnout. Now that the campaign is nearing the end, it appears that most of those folks are turning to Kerry and Edwards, with Kerry getting a slight advantage, in my opinion. Howard Dean, who was ahead in the polls for most of the time, does not seem to be getting much support from these "undecideds". Those are the people making a difference in the polling. It is not that Howard Dean is losing support, but that others are gaining support. This is my opinion on the turn in recent days.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. Yes, Kerry is getting the undecideds but Dean is also losing support

down 8% in one week in NH. In that same time period, Kerry is up 9%, Edwards up 5%, Clark up only 1%, Leiberman down 4%, and undecided only down 2%.

But in Iowa, where it is really the end of the campaign -- well they have to finally make up their minds! lol

[On the Road]

2. The Question is WHICH Supporters

If Dean's caucus-goers from a couple of weeks ago are still attending tomorrow night, I think he'll win.

The Iowa caucuses will come down to a question of core supporters. They can be thought of like an election with very low turnout. Dean's campaign must be successful at managing the emotions of its new and unseasoned base. It will be a real test.

[creativelcro]

3. it doesn't matter what they say they'll do...