Edwards' rise in polls

[redqueen]

Some talking head mentioned that it had something to do with the endorsement from the Des Moines paper. Does anyone here agree that that was a likely contributing factor?

What does this say about the electorate? Are the claims about 'letting the media pick the candidate' possibly far more accurate than many would like to admit?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

1. The Endorsement Alone Didn't Do It

What the endorsement did was convince people to consider taking a second look at Edwards. So his events became packed. And they liked what they heard, because Edwards is a fantastic speaker.

If Edwards was a bad speaker, he would not be where he is today in Iowa.

So yes, media coverage absolutely helps. But you need to have more than that in order to sustain the numbers.

DTH

[Padraig18]

2. The only media responsible for his rise is...

... the coverage of his overall positive and upbeat campaign. I'm sorry, but I just don't buy the whole 'my/your candidate is losing/winning and it's all the media's fault' thing.

[arewethereyet]

3. I think the endorsement was more a reflection of that reality

than a cause of it. But it never hurts.

[redqueen]

4. So his bump in the polls preceded the endorsement?

I thought it was the other way 'round.

[Padraig18]

9. There is no clear nexus.

I tend to agree with DTH's analysis.

[arewethereyet]

13. I'd say that the bump in the polls was happening anyway

and that maybe it was a little better as a result of the endorsement.

[cthrumatrix]

5. IF Gannet newspapers around the country do the same...I'd would

think thats more than a coincidence...we will see.

[JohnKleeb]

6. I think the reason why Edwards has caught is John Edwards

Ive seen him with crowds and he does well.

[Jerseycoa]

7. I agree with DTH

Edwards is amazing on the stump. That's what first drew my attention a couple of months ago, before he took off this way. I watched him running around Oklahoma on C-span and saw how he connects to people. He wasn't quite ablaze then, but you could see it all waiting for a lit match. Amazing and wonderful, really. Of course, that newspaper is very influential, but in itself, without Edwards doing what he's doing, I doubt we would be seeing this. In fact, I suspect he received the endorsement because of his talent, not the other way around.

[Bake]

8. Edwards is a fantastic stump speaker

So saith the cable talking heads. It stands to reason, since Edwards made his fortune talking to juries (for which I respect him immensely!!). I like Edwards, and I think in a few years he will be a HUUUUUUGE candidate and a real threat to the Pukes. This is his warm-up year.

Bake

[AP]

10. Edwards got only one of 4 newspaper endrsmnts. -- Kerry got other three.

I think this is more of a case of voters embracing the ideas now that they're paying attention.

Also, it's refreshing that there are independant sources of info in Iowa which don't feel obligated to sell the narrative the national media is pushing.

[jenk]

11. Edwards was rising BEFORE the newspaper endorsement

[goodhue]

12. Des Moines Register endorsement was key factor

Edwards is great on the stump but that is nothing new. He has been on the stump in Iowa for well over six months now. But he was not taken seriously by voters as a real contender until the Des Moines Register endorsement. What it says about electorate is that their political landscape is in some significant part a media construction.

Similarly, other key factor was omnipresent Edwards TV ads. TV ads have hugely helped both Edwards and Kerry. Ads however have not helped either Dean or Gephardt much, which says something about the effectiveness of negative ads in primary context -- not very.

But I wouldn't hold helpful endorsement or effective ads against Edwards. Another great thing about Edwards is his message of hope, which seems strangely familiar to me.

[rucky]

14. Am I the only one who has "Clinton" in the back of my mind?

Edwards is poised to be the next "comeback kid". that's been in my mind for some time now.

If that's as obvious to everybody else as it is to me, then there's part of your answer.

[redqueen]

15. Hadn't thought of that

Interesting.

[AP]

16. I think part of the narrative on this guy is that he goes from down to up.

That's the message of his whole life.

If it wasn't planned in the campaign for him to start low and finish high, then it should have been.

The worst thing for him would have been if he was top of the polls last spring, went down and then came back up.

It's so much better that he goes from 3% to winning. It fits in with his life story. And, as Al Sharpton said at the CNN debate, it's a great symbol for people on the downside of opportunity. It shows them that they can look beyond their horizons and chose to try to do something greater with their lives than they might otherwise think possible.

[leyton]

18. I think that might have been his strategy.

I don't know John Edwards or his aides personally, unfortunately. But I have met a few of his volunteers around Charlotte, and at least one of them told me, the strategy was to peak at the right time.

Who knows? It may have worked.

[AP]

19. Another part of this strategy is that you need a Goliath to be a Davey.

And the question I have which will probably never be answered is, was Dean the sucker who took the bait. Or is Dean actually doing a noble thing along the lines of what's-his-name in A Tale of Two Cities -- is he letting himself be hanged so that a greater man can come out of the primaries with the right narrative arc to defeat Bush.

It's a far greater thing...

[leyton]

22. I don't think Dean is Sydney Carton

because if he's got hopes for a David and Goliath, I think Goliath would be Bush and David would be Dean.

Wow, we're mixing our literary metaphors here, aren't we? :D

[AP]

24. mbali wrote a great post once about how...

...he was Chance the Gardener.

[rucky]

That's everybody's favorite story

Democrats, at least. and with the voters, it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. We see it time & time again in IA & NH.

The voters in those states are very aware of the influence they have. They almost always go against the media-dubbed frontrunners, as if they're thumbing their nose at the media, saying "We're writing the script here - not you". As well it should be.

That's also why Kucinich is still in play, the way I see it.

[Nadienne]

17. Nope

You are not the only one with "Clinton" in the back of your mind. And apparently neither am I... :-)

[bearfartinthewoods]

20. almost a year ago, Edwards was speaking on C-span

btw...they are re running it right now. a customer was waiting for his wife and watching our tube. he seemed transfixed. i said something to him and he replied..."i know that guy. he's their new clinton".

i started paying attention to Edwards that very day.

[cryofan]

21. Rise of both Edwards & Kerry fueled by anti-corporatist populist rhetoric

Examples:
Edwards:"There are 2 Americas. One for the CEO's and the investors and the corporations, and one for all the rest of us" (That is a rough paraphrase)

Kerry: The stock market is not the economy.

[KittyWampus]

23. Edwards & His Platform Have Recieved Little Scrutiny

Just heard him say he will NOT cut Defense Spending. He wants to "maintain American strength".

[AP]

25. He has said over and over that he's taking the profit out of the defense..

...budget, which is why he voted against the 87 bill allocation.

And you know what's going to happen when a Dem wins in 04: the US will be attacked, thanks to Bush's pissing off the world.

[KittyWampus]

26. I JUST Heard Him Answer A Specific Question On CSPAN

Woman asked "will you cut Defense Spending"

He said "No, I want American to remain strong."

Your attempt to try and deflect attention from Edwards' willingness to allow Defense spending to remain at obscene levels doesn't work.

"Taking Profit out of Defense"? Does that mean Edwards is going to Nationalize it?

And if you are going to take "profit out" whatever that bullshit means... then is the Budget going to be less?
If the Budget is going to be less then he WOULD BE CUTTING THE DEFENSE BUDGET.

He won't because he can't. PERIOD.

And Edwards has yet to give any really specific answers to any questions besides taxes.

[jenk]

27. we can't beat bush by being weak on defense

and Dem that proposes cuts in defense spending will be grilled by rove

[DoveTurnedHawk]

31. Umm, No

Bush will not be able to pass the smell test on attacking a General for wanting to cut out waste in the military budget.

What will Edwards respond with when Bush attacks him for having no foreign policy experience?

DTH

[AP]

33. He'll say the best war time president ever (Lincoln) had the same EXACT

experience Edwards has.

[DjTj]

35. Bush's foreign policy...

...has not exactly had spectacular results.

Edwards would say that he would do what is necessary to keep Americans safe, and that Bush's unilateral actions have been wrong.

John Edwards believes we should always maintain our military, economic, and political strength, but that we should use it to promote our values: democracy, freedom, and human rights.

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/foreign-policy.asp

[arewethereyet]

29. no answers ? such as ?

I'm at a loss on that.

[AP]

32. He voted against 87 bil Iraq allocation because all it was was profit for

private contractors.

That's what he's against.

Clark said in the debates that Democrats are for people in the military and Republicans are for weapons programs.

Democrats see investing in people in the military as the way to have a functioning country. Republicans see shifting taxpayer money to private corporate hands through weapons programs as the way to go. The former actually makes America safer while the latter makes it weaker.

People in the military have been seriously underfunded. When Democrats say they don't want to cut military spending and they don't want to give away the military budget to private contractors, what they're saying is that they want to up the investment in the people. They want to raise salaries and give good benefits for soldiers. That's good. That'll make us safer. It also achieves a good (Keynsian) shift in economic and politcal power down to soldiers who largely come from the working class. It gives them opportunities that they turn into valuable social economic improvements.

Now, a candidate like Dean has actually voiced his approval for weapons programs and he was for the 87 bill Iraq allocation. That ain't good. And if any candidate thinks they can cut defense spending and take out the profit for weapons manufacturers AND bring soldiers back up to where they should be in terms of salary and benefits and quality of life AND keep America safe, that candidate is dreaming.

[DjTj]

34. War Profiteering...

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/cleaning-up-washington.asp

For all new Iraq contracts, Edwards will impose a cap on profits from Iraqi reconstruction. Contractors will be permitted to earn only a reasonable profit on their Iraq contracts, based on the average profits of comparable, competitively bid government contracts. This is a version of the excess profits taxes that were imposed during the First and Second World Wars. As President Franklin Roosevelt explained, in time of war, “the few not gain from the sacrifices of the many.”

And on defense:

Edwards believes that we need to maintain a strong commitment to national defense and continue to make sure that America's military men and women and their families are treated with the respect they've earned.

Edwards is committed to maintaining a military with the most advanced training, the most sophisticated technology and adequate resources to accomplish their mission.

Edwards believes that national defense will also be strengthened by the policies we pursue in the world ­ policies that seek to solve problems before force is necessary and bring allies to our side.

The men and women of America's military are the finest in the world, but we have to do better to help them surmount the special hardships of service.

He has some of the most specific policy proposals of any candidate:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/real-solutions.asp

[arewethereyet]

30. I think that you find that most Americans want America strong

so whats the problem ? Sounds like a winning stance to me.

[CivilRightsNow]

28. Edwards makes me dream of Camelot..

I dunno why.. but he represents something crisp and new. At this point, Dennis is my first choice.. Edwards and Kerry coming in at a close second and third.

[MuseRider]

36. Me too.

I dunno why either! Just listening to him and watching him inspires me even if I disagree. That is a powerful thing. Kerry does not inspire me like that but his long record keeps me with him. Edwards either is or will be a force for the Republicans to reckon with. I am sticking with Dennis but Edwards is on a roll.

[CalebHayes]

37. I think it was a combo of the Register's endorsement and MY endorsement.

:)