We have only 4 Dem senators left in the south? Who's vulnerable in '06

[fujiyama]

I can think of only the following:

Blanche Lincoln of AR (She won reelection easilly)
Mary Landriu of LA (won by a thin margin in a runoff in '02.)
Nelson of FL (he's up for reelection in '06. It'll be a tough fight)

Is that it? Other than Lincoln the other two will be facing tough fights in 2 and 4 years respectively.

What strategy is in place to stop these losses? Not only that but we have several vulnerable senators in the upper midwest. I heard that Dayton will have a tough fight, as will Cantwell, and possibly Stabenow.

Can you name the others vulnerable in '06?

[havocmom]

1. No point worrying about it until we assure legitimate elections

All the strategy in the world won't help until then

[UNIXcock]

4. Your post almost sounds like a concession ...

... the last thing we should be doing is discouraging activism and scaring potential democratic voters from the polls "because every election is rigged" - not smart

[havocmom]

9. Not a concession at all. Pretending we have fair elections = concession

Until we recognize the problem and fix it, we are giving the power over to the guys rigging the votes and going along with the pretense.

I fight like hell, but choose my battles. The one which will save America is the one which will restore power to those we actually elect.

[Hippo_Tron]

13. We need to worry about both

Yes, there are problems with voter fraud, at least to some extent. But the fact is that we've had several candidates loose in landslide margins before Diebold controlled the system.

[Obviousman]

2. Let's look at it this way

Once the dems realize they have hit absolute rock bottom in the south, they can only go up right? i mean, will it honestly take the taunting of the republicans that we are a "regional party" for this party to get moving?!

[Leilani]

3. Pryor is a Dem Senator in Arkansas

& if you count West Va, Byrd & Rockefeller.

Once they are incumbents, many are safe. Much harder to win an open seat.

[west michigan]

8. Byrd ?

How old is he? 84ish? Any which way I do not see him retiring. I think he will run again ...still sharp.

[iwantmycountryback]

11. He's 87 now.

If he retires I'm sure he could help a Democrat a lot who runs for his seat. If he runs for re-election he'd probably win with the only concern being he's very old.

[Yupster]

15. I don't see Byrd serving another term

He'll either be retired or lose his next election. I hope he retires. He reminds me of Bill Roth. Older with a similar malady. Surprise loss to a good candidate.

[fujiyama]

26. Do you think he could lose?

WV has been really trending republican in recent years. Bush won the state by 13 points.

Byrd himself is an institution in that state. I personally think he'd still win it pretty easilly.

[fujiyama]

10. Ah I forgot

that AR has two dem senators.

West Virginia will be very tough when Byrd retires. As you said we have a better chance once they are an incumbent. Of course, that didn't matter in Daschle's case.

[Walt Starr]

5. We will lose 5 to 7 Senate seats in 2006 if the DLC continues driving

the agenda of the Democratic Party.

[west michigan]

6. Stabenow in Mi

We have her coming up in 06 along with Granholm. She knocked off spence abraham in a tight race in 00. I see the right thinking that both of them might be considered vulnerable in 06. Michigan economy is not the greatest and they will certainly try to blame this on the Gov. Did not help starting out 2 billion in the hole after engler(R) though.

[iwantmycountryback]

7. How about the other way around?

How many Republican senators are left in the Northeast? Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, Specter, Santorum, Gregg, and Sununu. Snowe, Collins, Specter, and Chaffee are all moderates. Santorum is very vulnerable. And look at the other Dem areas like the left coast and Great Lake States. The only Republicans there are Gordon Smith of Oregon and Norm Coleman of Minnesota. It's clear that in places like this Republicans have nothing. The NY and Illinois state GOP's are a joke.

[pscot]

14. The moderate Republicans are the ones we need to go after

Emulate the Republican strategy. They have been picking off vulnerable red state Democrats for years. It's time to turn that strategy around on them. We learned in this last election that large amounts of cash can be raised through the internet. Money is what makes a candidate viable. It's what keeps the DLC in the saddle. To a large degree they control the flow of money, which in turn determines who is able to run for office. The fund raising power of the net changes that. Sites like this one can get behind a candidate and jump start a campaign with infusions of cash. I would be prepared to pay to see Santorum taken down, but we also need strong candidates to run against Snowe, Collins, Chafee and other so-called liberal Republicans who vote for the likes of Trent Lott or Bill Frist for majority leader. That veneer of liberalism they wear is mere camoflage. They are not our friends.

[quaoar]

29. Amen

If they aren't going to switch parties, they can find new careers. Target them all.

[American Tragedy]

17. It is unconscionable that Republicans have seats in OUR territory

if the Democrats really wanted to, there is no doubt that they could take those offices. Surely a truly progressive candidate could decimate those so-called moderate Republicans?

And Santorum has really got to go. I don't live up there, but I would gladly donate to any campaign that would knock that guy out.

[LiviaOlivia]

12. Conrad of North Dakota top of the GOP hit list

He and his staff where awesome yesterday.


http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_11_21.php#004080

11-21-04

It's worth noting that the "Istook Amendment" (see the last post about the technical issue of whether it's an 'amendment' or a 'provision') was discovered in the appropriations bill by a staffer for North Dakota's Kent Conrad. And Conrad is right at the top of the list of senators the GOP is going to try to knock out in 2006.

That, presumably, will clear the way for other middle-of-the-night Istook Amendments.--Josh Marshall

[Yupster]

16. My most vulnerables are

Byrd in West Virginia, Dayton in Minnesota for the Democrats. Santorum for the Republicans.

Dayton wouldn't be as vulnerable except for the closing his office in Washington because of terrorism fears. That's going to come back to haunt him in my opinion.

[American Tragedy]

18. Why do you think Byrd is vulnerable?

The guy is practically a god in West Virginia.

[high density]

19. When Byrd retires, do you think another Democrat would take his place?

[American Tragedy]

22. I honestly don't know

But if West Virginians can continue to embrace a Democrat who vocally opposed and voted against the IWR, and has fought Bush every step of the way, surely there is still hope.

Men like him and Feingold and others seem to indicate that outspoken Democrats can prosper, even in states where this would seem unlikely.

[Yupster]

24. It will be a tough 50-50

open seat race.

[fujiyama]

27. If Byrd runs again

I think he'd win.

But if it's an open seat I'd definetely give the republicans the advantage.

[Yupster]

23. I think Byrd is vulnerable because he will be

88 or 89 years old when his reelection comes up.

He also is afflicted with Parkinson's Disease which is degenerative in nature. He already shakes when he stands or speaks.

I believe that two years from now it will be quite a bit worse than it is now.

I believe that there's a real chance that he will shock many voters with his appearance by next election time. He may have to run a Strom Thurmond like campaign where the candidate can't appear in public.

This worked for Thurmond because South Carolina was such an overwhelmingly Republican state. I don't believe it would work anymore for Senator Byrd in West Virginia.

I think the more apt analogy would be Senator Roth of Delaware (of Roth IRA fame). He was in his 70's (I think) and also had Parkinson's (I think). The Delaware Democratic Party found a strong candidate to put against him, and he was forced to actually campaign.

He fell off his tool during a debate and that was it for Senator Roth. A sad end.

I hope Senator Byrd retires. We don't need 94 year olds in the senate.

Then again, maybe I'm wrong and he'll be a healthy 89 years old senator coming off another easy win.

[dreadneck]

20. Sam Nunn, where are you?

Georgia's former senator, Sam Nunn, is exactly the kind of Democrat who can win in the South. Sadly, he's left public life, absolutely disgusted by the tone and tactics in DC.

Sam, where are ya?

[Lefty48197]

21. MI Reps are scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for an opponent for

Debbie Stabenow. They're talking about Betsy DeVos and Spence Abraham's wife.

[west michigan]

25. heard she stepped down...

...from her chairmanship a few weeks ago? devos. if so then will devos shoot for gov or senator?

[fujiyama]

28. Ah I didn't know who they were looking at

I think both Granholm and Stabenow have the advantage.

I heard the republicans making some noise, saying that more people voted for Bush than for Granholm.

I don't think they'll win it, but then again the state was a lot closer than I expected...