This LA Times article I post below is a very good analysis of voting patterns. Essentially, where we got killed was suburbs, and not just any suburbs, but exurbs - the newer, more lower-middle class fast-growing counties. Filled with mostly white, younger families, the exurbs voting overwhelmingly Republican and provided Bush half of his popular vote margin and his margin of victory in many states. The exurbs also kept Kerry from doing better in Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, states were Kerry did significantly better than Gore in urban areas and more established suburban areas.
So what to do about them? They're growing very fast, and in the last 8 years, these counties have become MORE Republican. Ruy Teixeira and John Judis in
The Emering Democratic Majority said not to worry about exurbs because they still were very small and as they grow larger they'll become more metro and more mixed politically.
The problem with this analysis in my opinion is that it's too long-term. The exurbs, if their pattern of development matches other suburbs, will likely eventually become more mixed politically and more cosmopolitan. The problem is that I see this as a long-term trend, not one that will manifest itself in the next few cycles. I don't see this happening for some time, and so we need to somehow cut the margins down in these counties, even if we don't win them. Otherwise, we're going to have a difficult time winning.
My own belief is that we need to somehow combine a strong national security message with Edwards' Two Americas theme and Midde-Class squeeze. Kerry did much of this, but clearly this has to be pushed harder.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-fast22nov22,1,2248079.story?coll=la-news-politics-nationalTogether, these fast-growing communities provided Bush a punishing 1.72 million vote advantage over Democrat John F. Kerry, according to a Times analysis of election results. That was almost half the president's total margin of victory.
"These exurban counties are the new Republican areas, and they will become increasingly important to Republican candidates," said Terry Nelson, the political director for Bush's reelection campaign. "This is where a lot of our vote is."
These growing areas, filled largely with younger families fleeing urban centers in search of affordable homes, are providing the GOP a foothold in blue Democratic-leaning states and solidifying the party's control over red Republican-leaning states.
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In states like Ohio, Minnesota and Virginia, Republican strength in these outer suburbs is offsetting Democratic gains over the last decade in more established — and often more affluent — inner-tier suburbs. As Democrats analyze a demoralizing defeat in this month's presidential election, one key question they face is whether they can reduce the expanding Republican advantage on the new frontier between suburbs and countryside.