Two Honest (I Swear) Questions !!!

[WillyT]

1) What does the Kerry\Edwards movement in Iowa portend for the Clark campaign???

If we're going as a group, back into the 'experience' fold, will Clark's campaign have motion in NH and beyond?


2) If the anit-war vote has been usurped by the 'I want to feel safe' vote, what does that mean our chances are in November???

Are our 'National Security' credentials good enough?

:shrug:

Bonus question: Are polls relevant to ANYTHING anymore???

:shrug:

Still ABB here, you???

:shrug:

[ogminlo]

1. Yes and No

Once it becomes widely evident that Bush allowed or even encouraged 9/11 to happen, I think the national security race will go our way. Remember, the underfunded 9/11 commission is due to submit a final report in May. And Mike Moore's Fahrenheit 911 will come after.

Polls are basically rigged- take them with a pound of salt.

[WillyT]

3. I Tend To Agree, But Getting That 9\11 Traction Focused Is One Hard Nut !!

And as of tonight, I agree as to polls!!!

:shrug:

[windansea]

2. we'll soon have 2 frontrunners in NH

both have strong NS credentials

guess who??

[WillyT]

7. We'll See... I'm Blown Away About What Happend Here Tonight...

Not giving bad jujus here, but watch out for that wind!!!

It blows hard!!!

:shrug:

[arewethereyet]

19. Kerry and Edwards ?

Lieberman ? Come on, who ?

[liberalmuse]

4. Only an unschooled opinion...

1. I don't know. We'll find out in NH, I think. If Dean does well in NH, Clark will likely do well, too. Things can change drastically in the next few weeks. I'm still holding out much hope.

2. Our chances are nil. If people aren't going to come out and vote against the war, or The Patriot Act, or any of the other heinous things Bushco is doing, then I see Bush winning another term, as horrifying as that thought is. If there is no Dem who is going to stop this unjust war and try to counteract the policies the Bush corporate machine has already set in motion, and further, who will likely continue on with some of Bush's policies, most notably this insane 'War on Terra', then what really is the point? The question in this case is: Do you want your doom quickly under Bush, or do you want it pro-longed while having all your hopes continually dashed until you go completely insane under a Democrat who on the average has been known to support about 90% of Bush's policies?

[izzie]

5. My thoughts are that the Dem are getting so anti-war that....

The party would be silly to run a general. Kerry is a good one. a hero. who showed he hated a foolish war.The last thing on turning over war rights is just beyond me.

[trumad]

6. Which foolish war are you talking about?

Psss... Clark was wounded too ya know?

[loudnclear]

8. The anti-war activists were right. BUT there is more to Kerry and Edwards

than the Iraq vote.

They supported a lie and didn't know it but they now have to distance themselves from the Bush policy now.

The only true anti-war votes are Kucinich and Sharpton.

WE MUST NOT LET THE MEDIA AND THE RETHUGS DEFINE US BY PUTTING US IN THE ANTI-WAR, PRO-WAR BOX. IT IS NOW ABOUT GETTING OUT OF IRAQ and the rest of the issues: the economy, jobs, taxes, deficits, arrogant foreign policy, treatment of citizens at home, privacy, the environment, infrastructure, energy!

[Adjoran]

9. Exit polls are saying

that 75% of Iowa caucus-goers were against the war, yet Kerry and Edwards and Gephardt combined to win 80% of the vote.

I think what it shows is that most Democrats have the same main interest I do: winning in November.

For Clark, it certainly helps that Dean was hurt so badly in Iowa. On the other side, the publicity over Kerry and Edwards will be the media flava-of-the-week (after SOTU).

Clark has the advantage that he was not expected to do well in NH anyway, and his current polling is far above predictions. If he can hold in the 20% range, it will be considered a victory for his campaign, no matter who wins.

[Clark4Prez]

10. If tonight proves anything...

It's that predictions don't mean squat. I doubt that last week, anyone would have predicted Dean to get less than 20% in Iowa. I remember a few Dean supporters predicted 50% for him and in December after the Gore endorsement, that was not as unrealistic as it seems tonight.

In short, things can turn on a dime and don't buy stock in the poll numbers.

[snyttri]

11. Poll numbers are notoriously bad for the Iowa caucuses in particular,

they are not as bad for primaries.

[LTR]

12. As a Clark supporter

I think Edwards is the one to look out for. The guy is gaining serious momentum.

Edwards is my #2, Kerry my #3. But I still think Clark will reign supreme when all is said and done.

[sandnsea]

13. Bush caused the war, most people get that

Seems to me.

[Jack Rabbit]

14. Interesting questions

EDITED for typing

I think the anti-war vote is still there, but it is subordinated to the anti-Bush vote. Whatever ideas the worst Democratic candidate has about foreign policy, he's not going to invade a sovereign state after lying to the people about the threat it represents in order to give it away to his campaign contributors. Nobody else could be that bad.

The Magistrate and I had an interesting discussion on another thread this evening. Our consensus is that Democrats just want to beat Bush and are looking for an electable candidate to do so. Dean is electable, but may be less so than Clark or Kerry.

In my view, if the anti-war vote had any influence that has thus far been felt, it is in vetoing Lieberman. DU isn't representative of very much except the left flank of the Democratic Party; Kucinich gets support here way out of proportion to his national numbers. What we have seen in the informal polls on these boards is that Lieberman has almost no support here and that far more than any other candidate, he would cause DUers to stay home or vote Green -- even against Bush. Lieberman can't hold the Democratic Party left flank and therefore can't win any more than could Kucinich, who would get very little support from independent centrists. Lieberman will go nowhere in New Hampshire and quit before March.

Kerry made a comeback tonight. Whether it will be sustained remains to be seen. His numbers look good in New Hampshire. He's at 19%, tied for second with Clark.

Edwards made a good showing tonight. Whether it will be sustained remains to be seen. He's running in the mid-single digits in New Hampshire.

Dean took a step backward tonight. However, he's still leading in the latest New Hampshire poll with 25%. Nevertheless, the pressure is now on him to win in New Hampshire. If Clark or Kerry overtakes him in the coming week, that person will be the new anointed front runner.

If the trend seen in Iowa tonight toward a more electable candidate continues, Dean could be in trouble.

[WillyT]

15. Great Analysis Jack !!!

Besides anti-war, I'm also so concerned abvout the Union movement.

With the union candidates (Gepahrdt and Dean) not doing as well as expected in this caucus, I hope that whoever the eventual nominee is, they will be fervent union supporters in their own right.

It is first and foremost an issue of getting rid of *, but we cannot afford to continue to ignore the devolvement of the union movement from here on out. If we are to be anti-Shrub, and therefore anti-corporatist, we have to shore up , develop, and support the unions. Or else, there is no point to all this!

IMHO!!!

:shrug:

[Jack Rabbit]

16. The first order of business is to beat Bush

That's not because Bush isn't a Democrat, but because he isn't a democrat. He seized power after losing the last election and uses his power to subvert civil liberties and constitutional checks and balances; he runs the government in secret; he lies brazenly about the rationale for his decisions. He is a threat to very foundations of American constitutional government.

We are in the same position as was the French left in the early 1940s. They resisted the Nazis and were willing to follow a sober political conservative like General de Gaulle to do it. This is not the time to look for the perfect candidate. The one who can beat Bush is good enough. If the only way to defeat Bush were to nominate McCain, I'd be willing to do it.

Once Bush is out, we can pursue goals like reinvigorating the union movement without fear of Bush's national security apparatus looking over our shoulders. We will not be hindered by an administration that uses national security as a pretext (although never a real reason) to frustrate our goals. We will expect again a government that at least plays by democratic rules and recognizes Constitutional limits on its power.

The climate of fear and repression will end. That is why we must support the Democratic Party's candidate, regardless of who he is.

[WillyT]

17. Well Said, And Thank Goodness The Rest Of The Dem Field...

was 'allowed' to feel comfortable with the positions that Howard Dean articulated. Whatever else, he gave a well needed and well deserved kick in the pants to the rest of the field. (Except for DK, CMB, and AS)!!!

I truly beieve if he had not exposed the anger laying in the ruins of the Democratic electorate, we'd be reprising Election 2002 as we speak!!!

:shrug:

[arewethereyet]

18. lets see

1. big trouble
2. disagree with the premise but it can be trumped with jobs and economy

bonus: polls clearly predicted the momentum that showed. numbers off, but the Des Moine Register poll had it nailed by place.

not bad AND you can get your ball scores for only 50 cents !

[WillyT]

20. I Agree The Second Premis Is Shaky, But...

The current meme repeated over and over on all the networks\cables that I saw, was that Dean lost 'steam' when Saddam Hussein was captured. Ergo... we are 'safer' now.

Not buying any of this mind you, but the American people may be.

:shrug:

[no name no slogan]

21. The "war" is over-- but the occupation goes on

The IWR vote is not even that important amongst the supposed "anti-war" crowd anymore. However, the cost of the occupation (in human and monetary terms) is STILL the big white elephant in the living room that the Dems will need to address by this fall.

Also, healthcare is proving to be an important issue, as well. And this is an issue where all of our candidates' positions are STILL better than whatever the Repubs can cobble together by November.