Will Dean be damaged in NH primary by all the negative publicity?

[kentuck]

Although, as late as last week, most of the polls showed him in the 30% range. I think the latest polls show that he has lost some support and that Kerry has gained. There is no doubt that he created a media storm with his "speech". Perception is reality.

It appears that this may be a storm that Dean will have to ride out. There is not a lot of time to recover. However, between now and February 2nd - the next primaries, a lot of things could change. As it appears at this moment, if Dean can get a second place after all this negative publicity, it would have to be considered a victory for the Dean campaign.

But, if he were to finish fourth, God forbid, it would probably mean that he has been mortally wounded. It would be difficult for him to recover, realistically speaking. So, at this time, I would think Dean supporters should shoot for a second-place finish. First place would be a great victory and would indicate that people have put the "gaffe" behind them. But, under the circumstances, second place would have to be considered a "victory". Any thoughts?

[David Dunham]

1. I am afraid he'll be damaged in a big way.

[Melodybe]

11. He has to go prime time to fix it

he needs to strike now while the iron is still hot, while he is still in the news.

For gods sake what can we do to get him on Letterman and the Daily Show!!!

[kentuck]

12. That might help...

He could joke about it with Letterman or Stewart and perhaps, could be coaxed into doing his primal scream on nationwide TV. If he could somehow reduce it to humor,and lugh about it, it might help...

[Sir_Shrek]

2. NH is important...

He needs a strong showing for folks to forget Iowa. If he finishes more than 10 points or so behind the winner (providing that he doesn't win), the uphill grade gets steeper. I wouldn't count him out though.

[jmaier]

3. I suspect that it might

I'm feeling another 3rd place for Gov Dean but perhaps 2nd is within reach.

[LuminousX]

4. Of course, negative publicity always causes damage

the question is will it cause him to lose NH. Only time will tell.

[killbotfactory]

5. He's being McCained

"Unstable and angry... maybe even... insane?"

F*** you liberal media.

[sallyseven]

6. Polls should not be believed

The only poll that counts is the ballot box. Never believe the polls because they lie.

[chookie]

7. It's not fair but....

Every campaign has a moment like this, when the candidate and his supporters knows he is doomed.

Like -- Reagan's "I will not exploit my opponent's youth and experience" line.

George the First looking at his wristwatch.

Dukakis riding in the tank.

No -- it's not fair, but this is how it goes. I like Howard Dean, and will be forever grateful for what he contributed to this campaign. I have also watched in horror as he has been vilified in the press, and the subject of a shark feeding frenzy by his fellow candidates.

But because of that performance on Monday night -- he's doomed now.

Is it fair? No. Look at all the crazy shit that Bush does -- pumping his fist in the air and saying "FEELS GREAT!" in the minutes before he went on tv to announce the commensement of the Chimperial War. Falling unconscious after eating a pretzel. Lying in the SOTU address. Lying to DIana Sawyer. Dean went a little overboard -- and I accept his explanations that he was playing to the Deaniacs. But unfortunately, unless Trippi can perform some kind of miracle -- he's done. I HOPE I am wrong about this, truly I am.

I feel sorry for these guys. Running for the Presidency is so damned hard when you are a Democrat.

[HFishbine]

8. Remember how Clinton was doomed

when the Gennifer Flowers story broke during the primaries? Good thing it wasn't something as serious as yelling.

[chookie]

14. Good point

HF -- you're right about that.

And I would rather be apologizing to you for being wrong about my conjecture than be right about this -- because I am a great admirer of Governor Dean.

I think he has done a great job in sticking up for himself throughout this campaign, and has overcome a number of adversities. I look forward to him coming out on top of this one, as well.

But is it just me, but ... doesn't it seem like the press has it in for this guy? If he's not being "McCained", he's being "Gored."

I must admit that I was somewhat influenced by what the press eas saying about him -- and this was as a Dean supporter! But when I would see and hear the man himself, especially in unguarded moments, he seems like a great leader, and quite personally charming. For some reason, they are being selective about what they are reporting about -- they are not showing the stirring speeches, or the policies outlines, or even the moments of charm, but just the weird stuff. This sucks the big one.

[beyurslf]

9. Anything but a close second is doom beyond repair I think.

Really, anything but a win singals major problems still. He was up by over 20. If he takes 3rd or 4th.. or even 2nd without being very close... we have problems.

If Dean doesn't take NH, I would like to see Edwards do it.

[Pillowbiter]

10. Well, I am hoping this will be positive in the end

kind of like the saying "all publicity is good publicity". At least they are talking about Dean and not Bush's wonky string of lies called the SoTU.

And even if this does spell doom for Dean, at least he has taken the bullet for other candidates. As Bill Maher joked, "with all of the Democratic candidates, Fox News isn't sure who they should start a smear campaign on".

PB

[kayleybeth]

13. I'm afraid so.

Fairly or not, "the speech" is still being played over and over and over again on all of the 24/7s, and not being given much if any positive spin. On MSNBC a little earlier, they were interviewing Dean's "campaign embed" and he said something to the effect that the speech wasn't playing well with swing voters and that it may have been a mistake.

But who knows? I don't think it's wise to count Dean out yet. A win in New Hampshire is still possible for him, IMO. Not as likely as it once was, but certainly still possible. Even if he comes in 2nd or 3rd, he's got plenty of time and money to regroup and refocus before the next round of primaries. A lot can happen between now and then. I'm not a Dean supporter but I am not counting him out just yet.