Josh Marshall: Will Sen Lincoln Chafee (RI) Leave GOP?

[On the Road]

Look at the last paragraph of his blog entry:

(February 17, 2005 -- 01:39 AM)
Some very bad news for Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) of Rhode Island ...

An independent poll - specifically, the Brown University poll -- shows potential challenger, Rep. Jim Langevin (D) beating Chafee 41% to 27%.

---snip

Says the poll's director, Brown Professor Darrell West: "Langevin did very well because he has very few negatives and Lincoln Chafee's negatives are starting to rise. Chafee has alienated part of his Republican base but not yet won over Democrats so he's trapped between the left and the right."

---snip

If anything, I would think such bad numbers would push Chafee toward some conspicuous bucking of his party and president - presumably on Social Security.

But, honestly, with numbers so poor, it's hard to say. I think West has it right: he's trapped.

Is the Jeffords option the only answer?

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2005_02_13.php#004830

[TheFarseer]

1. Would Dems take him?

If I had to guess, I would guess he's finished politically.

[On the Road]

2. I Think Dems Might Actually Take Him

if there were any doubt about who would win the election. It would be a safe choice for both.

However, the Jeffries comparison suggested he might become an idependent.

[GOPBasher]

3. I like Chafee a lot, but right now I wouldn't vote for him simply because

he's a Republican, which helps them keep their majority. It's as simple as that. If he had all the same positions but called himself a Democrat, I'd vote for him. Good politician, just giving another number to the wrong side.

[DrGonzoLives]

4. Funny thing is

He would be more liked here as a moderate to liberal Republican then as a centrist Democrat.

If he switched over to the DNC, mark my words, he would be roasted alive here constantly.

[On the Road]

5. If You're Right, His Days May be Numbered

of course, he's also likely to change his voting record quite a bit if he defects, either to an independent or a Democrat.