Hey DU, I need help with a stats class! Lets Talk About Hillary Clinton

[Joe the Revelator]

Poll question: Hey DU, I need help with a stats class! Lets Talk About Hillary Clinton

Hey guys, I need 30 of you to respond to this poll. I know its been done a million times before, but this time is actually has a bit of bearing because I will be presenting it to a Statistics class. So please, take the time to vote and then if you could leave a message saying which way you voted so I can anonymously put you into a data table. Thanks a million.





THE QUESTION IS:
If the 2008 primaries were being held today, could you please tell me if you think that Hillary Clinton should run for president,or should she not run for president.

[LSdemocrat]

1. She would probably be one of my top 2-3 candidates for 2008

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Thank you for your response nt

[Clark2008]

3. Don't want her to run because of the media propaganda

Real people who could beat a Republican might not get a chance.

And, I'm kickin' this for you. :kick:

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Thanks for the kick :)

I should have done this earlier in the day when more people were on. Also thank you for your response.

[JI7]

4. she can run if she wants to

[Selatius]

6. She can run, but I'm voting for someone else in the primaries

[Selteri]

7. She should run for Veep. N/T

[Synnical]

8. Clinton is too moderate for me

Boxer, on the other hand . . .

Then again, Americans generally do not elect Senators to the White House.

[mike_c]

9. I would not vote for Hillary Clinton unless she takes...

...a sharp left turn, particularly with respect to the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and other similar aspects of foreign policy. Pigs will likely perform aerial gymnastics first.

[Crunchy Frog]

10. I would very much prefer if she did not run. eom.

[usregimechange]

11. Why I voted no.

I don't think she can pick up enough political moderates and southern states but what is more, she is seen as a political opportunist. Russ Feingold, on the other hand, does what he thinks is right despite the polls. He was the only US Senator with the courage and independence to vote against the "Patriot" Act. He also sends his pay raises back to the US Treasury. That is the kind of candidate we need. We need someone who will stand up for what they really believe and do the right thing.

[Darkhawk32]

12. I vote no not because she's a bad person, but she wouldn't win ...

any states that Kerry didn't. Unfortunately.

[Lone Pawn]

16. Ironically enough, I think most people are voting no

for the opposite reason--she doesn't give off ENOUGH of a hard-left aura :eyes:.

Yes, I know the truth. Truth and a buck twenty-five will buy you a bottle of coke.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. At least five more....vote early and often...

Thanks again for all the responses and votes. you've saved my academic career

[Lone Pawn]

14. Certainly not.

[TreasonousBastard]

15. I think she should run if she wants to...

simply because she'll add a lot of interest to the primaries.

Wingnut radio bloviators might just have a stroke or two amongst them.

[bluedeminredstate]

17. I love her

but I think she would be too explosive. Plus I don't want a twenty four year Bush/Clinton hold over the White House. Two families shouldn't trade it back and forth for an entire generation.

[Terre]

18. Voted No

and not because she wouldn't do a decent job, but because I don't think she'd be a strong enough candidate to sway a majority of Repugs to our side.

Having said that, she gave one hell of a great talk at the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's Annual Hubert Humphrey Dinner this past Saturday. Unfortunately, I only caught the last half or so. If anyone is interested in listening to the C-SPAN video (RealPlayer), click here:

rtsp://video.c-span.org/15days/e040905_hclinton.rm

edit: OOPS! You'll have to copy and paste the above to another browser window. - Sowwy

[Orangepeel]

19. my "no" vote was the 31st vote

I'm close to indifferent, but in a forced choice scenario, have to say "no." 1) I'd like all the right wingers and talking heads who insist that she is running to be wrong; and 2) she'll suck all the air out of every room she campaigns in.

[jon strad]

20. Yeah, she should run

I must admit, I'm new to this whole politics scene but everybody I know thats not a super crazy, foaming at the mouth Republican has no problem with Clinton. Plus, I think her recent move to the center is just her jockeying for a run in 08, not a clear indication that she will behave in ways totally adverse to the values we hold as Democrats. Plus, it's a looong time from now. I'll wait to see how it all pans out, especially in 06, before too much presidential talk.

[ChiciB1]

21. Hillary Isn't Someone I Know Anymore....

She's changed a lot. She may still have a lot of good intentions, but she seems to be trying MUCH to hard to please the RIGHT side of the aisle. I can't respect that even IF it would get her elected!

I certainly HOPE we don't go down this road. I'm still a Kerry supporter, but also entertain the idea of a Edwards/Clark ticket too. I can't write Kerry off because even though he didn't dig deep into the trenches, I admire his intelligence and his grace. And I don't doubt that he's a TRUE Democrat to the core. While B. Clinton can still pack a room, he was always more moderate than I. I used to think Hillary was the Liberal one, but don't anymore.

I saw Edwards talking at the American University and he sucked me right in AGAIN! And his wife is a BIG BIG plus, so very intelligent and tasteful. Truly a joy to watch when she has given any speeches and especially when she fields questions. Goes right to the point and does a fantastic job, and totally believable.

[imenja]

22. Is this really a statistically valid poll?

One, it's not a random sample. Two, the question doesn't allow someone to express their views of Senator Clinton. Should she run. Why not ask, would you support Hillary Clinton in a bid for the Democratic nomination?

[Joe the Revelator]

23. Well for one, this is a super basic Stats course...

The main point of the "project" is just to show an understanding of hypothesis testing. The question is modeled after one found of www.pollingreport.com. My sample is random to a point, because i have no control of who will and will not take part in the poll. The focus is on people who identify themselves as democrats.

[imenja]

24. oh, good luck with the assignment.

[Joe the Revelator]

25. Thank you :) nt

[izzybeans]

28. Just a note. Your sample isn't random at all because the sampling

frame isn't random. DUers aren't a collection of randoms. There is something we all have in common. The likilhood of polling a republican is not the same as polling a dem. here and the independent factor would be unknown (as if we could boil it down to that). Just as polling college kids in your intro class is not a representative or a random sample, polling does not give you the equal probability of selection criterion to be a purely random sample. College kids have this quirky non-random midddle-classy thing going for them. There is a predictable distribution of people attending the DU, just as your intro class. You are flipping a coin that has the same image on both sides (with the occassional troll trying to snatch it up and run off to the paranoid sites spying on us).

What you are taking is a "convenience sample", which is always completely non-random. Even though you aren't picking and choosing who pulls the lever you still picked DU-a non-random place with rules and mods to prove it. Just like market researches in the malls over sample middle-aged white women (their target demo anywho) you are oversampling dems and to a much greater extent I would guess.

No harm no foul. That's just as many methodology catch phrases I could string together in two paragraphs.

[karynnj]

29. Your sample is not random, but there are ways to do something more legit

Please do not take this as nasty or as condescending. Although I fortunately never did any opinion research, I have done a lot of sample design.

The frame first off is not people who identify as Democrats, but people who are on DU.

It is not random at all because there is a bias due to the self selection. You will probably get more people who have strong opinions on Hillary to click on this thread. I would be very reluctant to tell a Stat prof that it is at all random.

To get a more random sample, you might find a few threads not dealing with 2008 and pm every n th person asking them to respond, explaining that it would really help you with your class (as you did here). Again, it would be important to describe the sampling frame you selected from as it is your universe. Any conclusions you draw should be extended only to this universe.

PS Don't forget to report the response rate.

[Joe the Revelator]

30. Thank you Izzybeans and Karyn....

I have an entire section of this paper that discusses things I could have done differently and problems that arose from gathering my sample. I think this is going to make a very good discussion.

On that note:

if my p2 description = (roughly) Proportion of respondents to a poll conducted on the message forum located at www.democraticunderground.com that would like to see Hillary Clinton Run for President.

would i be that far off?


Anyway, thank you for your help, both of my majors are non-math related and I'm just trying to tread water in this class long enough to get the credits and graduate.

[goodhue]

26. voted no

eom

[New Dealer]

27. I think she should run

She has every right to, and since she wants to be president, why should we tell her what she should and shouldn't do?

Will I support her in the primary? No, I don't think she's electable.

[StudentOfDarrow]

31. Voted yes.

I think we need a large primary so that we have multiple choices. Furthermore, she really would make a great president. Those who think she's a sellout are kidding themselves. Have these people never heard of Bayh or Lieberman? These are the real detriments to the Party. Clinton is a strong liberal on everything but several foreign policy issues, on which she is certainly no wingnut. I disagree with Clinton on a multitude of issues, but if she won the nomination, I would support her enthusiastically over any Rightwing fascist.