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Let's roll with history not our nerves. Kerry was too good to go down mumbling because things didn't and actually couldn't go his way in the pre-primary positioning contest. Dean was untested but that doesn't mean that his advantages will now evaporate because of press judgment- and again, DU dismay.
Clark hasn't begun his actually vote-getting yet. The caucuses, where delegate selection erases popular polling, would have been a media feast on what would likely be seen as "coming up short". Dean's meltdown was so fast it was too late for any second thoughts or last minute organization flurry. Edwards threw together a lot(but not all) at the last minute but he had spent a lot of time pressing the flesh to demonstrate his raw vote-getting appeal. Clark reaches a whole different group of voters that may well eat into Kerry support while giving Edwards a run for his money among other groups. Dean may win or actually be a spoiler for just about anyone.
Media stupidity mirrors the worst in political calculations. The campaign advisers(except those that know they are doomed and maybe even some of them) can't believe they can't determine the future- that it resides in the voters- that they don't really get how the voters work despite all the polling. The contest mentality and need for quick news and quicker wisdom is a rolling joke. Kerry is now "the guy" even again- as they did with Dean- almost lead with the factors that prove otherwise.
Out of the media mouths come the conditions- then the ridiculous, immature judgments. Though we accurately mistrust them for other reasons as well we get sucked into the breathless manufactured opinion stratosphere. This happens by way of how we think most people are conditioned by the media. And we pull fake wool over our own eyes?
Nobody said this would be easy- well maybe some ranting optimists did. But was Clinton elected? Was he deposed? The media was dead wrong and pushing the daisies up for Clinton whenever they could get the chips down for him. Especially in primaries, for both parties, the media never got it or got it right. If so, they were lucky.
Let Clark prove himself. The only problems he has are: building up a wide base of support away from other strong candidates and getting himself individually out there to the voters. I still hear on DU the same rote blurbs I hear at work or from reportage on the streets. Every candidate is a tag line until the voter gets to hear the one on one message and BE REASSURED about their character and potential. Debates, if anyone listens, are a rarefied intramural, beat the clock contest, great for choices, but with the impact dissipated among several dueling intelligent issue artists that wobble as they try to make asides to the listeners. It's a lousy place for a stump contact, but it does something. They don't destroy the memes though.
The best thing on TV is actually to watch a campaigner in action, on and off stump, pressing the flesh. There you can see what going right or wrong. But only the mass of voters can decide so we can't project absolutely beyond our insights anymore than the ratings dazzled pundits do.
The news from Iowa is that Kerry is a factor still, which makes the crystal ball cloudy indeed. The other news, barely sinking in to the thick skulls of the media, is that not only is Edwards alive but a personal dynamo in vote-getting, an extremely strong case that Clark can make too, I believe. Dean and Kerry(I go out on a limb here)with their perceived negatives and their two man war may put themselves into real jeopardy and effectively knock each other out- but the real decisions will be made- no surprise- in the next couple of rounds of actual VOTES. Ta-da. Without a clear decision from the North the Southern states may sink our alleged frontrunners like stones. The media designated frontrunners(Dean, Kerry) in fact face a huge obstacle unless they dominate the momentum bigtime. I don't see how they can, but that's me.
Might as well save the handwringing and start socking away some real dough for November.
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