Here's why we should have let them go nuclear, and what we shoulda done

[CTLawGuy]

First some background on the country's attitude toward the nuclear option:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
"That means that, had Democrats held firm and forced moderate Republicans to reject the unpopular "nuclear option" that Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., was attempting to impose on the Senate, Owen might very well have been kept off the court. National polls showed an overwhelming majority of Americans opposed Frist's plan to bar judicial filibusters , thereby allowing confirmation of even the most objectionable of the Bush administration's nominees."

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0526-21.htm

and...

"As the showdown on the so-called "nuclear option" approached, polls showed that the American people opposed scheming on the part of Senate GOP leaders to eliminate judicial filibusters by an overwhelming 2-to-1 margin. "

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0525-21.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------

Some have been talking about how horrible it would be if Frist went nuclear, so even something so little as an indeterminate delay is a great victory.

But, my view is it isn't that horrible at all.

There are three possible scenarios related to the nuclear option.

1. Frist cannot break the filibuster, so he calls on Cheney to declare the unlimited debate rule void. Cheney does, a senator objects, and the objection is denied by a majority of senators. this is the worst case scenario, and as I will show later, it's not that bad.

2. Frist tries the nuclear option, but nervous moderate repugs, staring at a disapproving public, join with united democrats to uphold the objection to it. Hence the nuclear option is aborted, and frist loses, end of story. This is the best case scenario.

3. Frist was only bluffing. He understands that going nuclear would be political suicide but was hoping that he could scare Dems into capitulating, leaving him free to get what he wanted, and not have to go nuclear. If the dems force him to act, he will make up some excuse and no option will be carried out, but leaving him free to try later.


We could have won in each of the three scenarios. Let's go from best to worst.

Scenario 2: The public (67%) is angry at frist and the Repugs for their utter disrespect for the rules. The religious right is furious at Frist and the Repugs for failing to get their judges on the court. Dems bash the Repugs during the campaign for utterly trying to break the rules.

Scenario 3: The public will probably not care that much, but the Religious right will be livid at frist. this would be a major victory for the Dems, making the Repugs look weak. Not as much political attack material as scenario 2, but we definitely look good.

Scenario 1: the worst case - the senate goes nuclear and it is upheld. Realize what they just did is essentially ignore the rules, and declare themselves above the rules. You might think they are free to ram judges through. But the Democrats can shut down senate business. So Bush's agenda grinds to a halt as everything is filibustered. The Democrats have one clear message "The Repugs showed that they have no respect for the rules, and we cannot allow the senate to work if it is in chaos. We are acting to protect the rules, democracy and fairness." The shutdown will get a lot of media attention, and considering the overwhelming opposition to the nuclear option, the public will blame the republicans. People still believe in the rule of law and basic fairness. the moderates will put extreme pressure on Frist to reverse the nuclear option.

I think in any scenario, the Democrats will come out ahead. It would be ugly, but that is politics, especially when you are dealing with thugs as we are. It also shows we are willing to stand up for what we believe in, and a lot of voters will respect that.

[RedstDem]

1. I Think It Would Have Backfired On The Republicans

Big Time, & Frist Will Definitely Try It Once More Before It's All Done, But I Really Think That He Didn't & Won't Have The 51 Votes He Needs Including Darth Cheney,

[Goblinmonger]

2. I agree

I have been saying basically the same thing since the compromise was struck. The way it is now, we have nothing different except that "Aren't corporations the best thing since sliced bread" Owens sitting on a bench for the rest of her life.

[CTLawGuy]

3. yeah,

the compromise wasn't really a compromise at all, just a net gain of 3 judges for them, and time for us.

[Goblinmonger]

4. And really not a net gain of time

As soon as we filibuster someone, they will trot out the nuclear option and we will be back to the three options you detail above.

[kentuck]

5. They didn't give a damn about the polls...

They have the media in their pocket/ They can almost always talk themselves out of almost any predicament.

[CTLawGuy]

15. they could only convince AT MOST 33% of americans

that they are right.

The reason they do so well with talking is becuse the Democrats cannot get their act together enough to get a strong message of opposition out.

Take the war for example. The dems didn't have a coherent message of opposition to the war. So the only message anyone heard was a pro-war message. so it's no wonder people favored the war.

[kentuck]

16. But the judges would still have been confirmed ?

And we would not have the capacity to filibuster Bolton or other judges? What would we have won?

[CTLawGuy]

17. read scenario 1 again

we would shut down the senate until they rescinded the N.O. Therefore NOTHING would get done.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. I can only dream we'd get the GIFT of your Scenario One

I want it

I want it bad

I REALY want it

And then I want every Dem to not just do the easy ting and slow down the Congres, I want them to allow the Repubs to do **whatever the fuck they want** in Congress. By leaving.

I want every Dem, not only in the Senate, but also in the House, to just saddle up and ride out of Dodge.

Go back home and get on **local** (NOT national) teevee and speak to the citizens.

Go back home and hold small, local meetings with the citizens - free access and open questions. Unfiltered and unrefuted by the cabal's footsoldiers.

Go back home and walk the fucking streets, talking to **everyone**.

Go to Little League games and soccer practices, county fairs and church services, American Legion halls and union halls, shopping malls and parks .... go to wherever the citizens go ....... and talk.

Use the right words. The words that demand attention. Like 'one party rule' ..... like 'overreach' ...... hell, even like 'dictatorhsip'.

Be clear and have the leadership insist on lock step messaging. No wimps. Only truth tellers.

[CWebster]

7. Interesting post

:kick:

[rhett o rick]

8. I agree with what u said. But I believe to wrest control from the

Reich Wing we need a moderate coalition of Dem's and Repub's. If the fab 14 can resist the pressures from their parties, they may be able to mute the power of the Reich. I admit that i am backing off some what. The temptation is there to fight to the end now, but that might be like wrestling a pig in mud. We need to work toward a moderate coalition.

[LSK]

9. with todays media, the dems would be blamed for shutting down the Senate

The public has no clue about what the Senate rules are and barely know what a filibuster is. However it would be all over CNN/FOX/MSRNC that the democrats have shut down the Senate.

Remember in this media climate, the truth is irrelevant.

[CWebster]

10. So, we should lay down and die?

[Stinky The Clown]

12. Absolutely NOT ... and there's no need to lay down

Just do something SO BIG and SO BOLD, that we'll get our story out there.

And in the process we'll look like David as compared to their Goliath.

And david was the good guy then and will be the good guy now.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. I agree about the media and how a slowdown would get spun

See my post 6, above.

If we do that, there's NO WAY the media can spin it cuz our elected officials will be there with the citizens watching it on teevee with them and telling the truth ... not the spin.

[CTLawGuy]

13. then how do you explain why

67% of Americans oppose getting rid of the filibuster?

Americans are disgusted with Republican rule of Congress, and the Nuclear Option would be the last straw. they are smart enough to know that the repugs ignored the rules, as long as the Dems are willing to say so, and loudly.

[CWebster]

14. maybe they are afraid it would wake people up

Like the last crisis in Government--the Clinton witch hunt.

[demo dutch]

18. Who believes the polls! Not me!