“A US-led global recession “?

[McKenzie]

I’m not an economist so I’m not in any position to comment on this article from the China daily. The only thing I DO know is that people in the US are getting pissed at Shrub et al, bigtime, as the article says. BTW, you probably won't need to install the Chinese language pack so just close the box that pops up when you click on the link.

Scary stuff.

<snip>

Put it simply, the Americans have been living way beyond their means for much too long. On top of this, the Bush Administration is cutting tax at least three times while fighting an expensive war in Iraq, which has already cost the country US$700 billion, and currently progressing at US$5.6 billion per month. Now the US economy is dependent on the central banks of Japan, China and other nations to invest in US Treasuries and keep American interest rates down. The low rates keep American consumers snapping up imported goods.

Any economist worth his salt knows that this situation is unsustainable. This includes the country's economic guru driver Alan Greenspan, who recently warned his countrymen that the federal budget deficit would hamper the nation's ability to absorb possible shocks from the soaring trade deficit and the housing boom. Now he may have to add two more worries: soaring oil prices and cyclones.

The US is now clearly in huge trouble, economically, socially, politically, and internationally. The Bush Administration bungled big in cyclone Katrina's aftermath in New Orleans, and then a minor rerun from Rita in Houston, and this will trigger the general outburst of people's dissatisfaction with the government, leading to great internal turmoil lasting for many years. In all likelihood, long-term interest rates are going to rise, and the greatest property bubble the world has witnessed is going to burst in the next one to two years.

The countdown is in progress, and there is no way that anybody can do anything to reverse it either by short-term measures such as fiscal and monetary policy, or through long-term reform of tax policy, entitlement programmes and even the entire federal budget. This is as inevitable as gravity, and it will take place under a new and inexperienced chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. I do not want to sound alarmist, but I see very bad omens.

</snip>

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-10/06/content_482807.htm

[tk2kewl]

1. "bad omens" indeed.

:(

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. I fear they are correct

we can only hope that the rest of the world is more merciful than we are, and that they take pity on us.

I hope all DUers are trying to live within their means, and live green. Folks like that will be the ones who are in the best position to survive the coming disaster.

[whatever4]

3. And the rest of the world hates us

They'll think we got what we deserved.

Most of us wouldn't be any different. We better not expect them to be. We'll be disappointed. It doesn't even matter if it's true, it's all about perception. We've been painted as monsters in many ways. We're greedy, too stupid to learn another language but our own, poorly educated yet we think we deserve it all, violent and gun toting (though I believe in weapons, most of the world does NOT) and let's not forget the torture. And that pesky little war or two.

Friends? Hell, we're lucky no one's taking shots at us already. What are we going to do, complain to the UN? Threaten with our military, our weak already busy military? Heck, and that only works for overt acts of aggression, which we won't likely be lucky enough to see. Why bother, when we can be taken out so easily economically? And who will believe it isn't justified, after all we've done?

Seeing as how we are on here, we'd be pretty hot on the lousy Americans TOO, had we been born in China. Or just about anywhere else; it's the only reasonable thing to believe. That the US is card-carryin' nuts, it's leaders and apparently most of it's people. Certainly it's soldiers...and they're all volunteer. All willing participants. All very much "with" the program. They don't even have to lie about it, it's not a propoganda war. The truth works in their favor, anyone that wants to discredit the United States. They don't have to exagerate a dog damned thing. THAT sucks. The truth.

We'd hate us too. But this isn't likely a revelation here. Sorry I rant so much.

What I haven't decided yet is if this was part of the plan. Remove access to foreign resources, separate us from our friends, like an abusive spouse? No idea. Not even sure I want to know.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. There is hope, however

I don't know if you have friends in other countries, but I do. They actually look quite favorably on most regular Americans; they are definately decent to me (but then I do speak a smattering of other languages and endeavor to find out about other cultures). So on an individual basis I think people from other nations like individual Americans.

[izzie]

5. Well it does look bad

Russia said they would make us spend our selfs out but looks like Bush is going to do it for China to own us. It is hard to see what will happen to the world making all these cheap things when their is no one there to buy them. Guess who buys? Guess who is being replaced with cheap labor? That large middle class that made us so rich is going down fast. Bush must have never done a thing on sociology in college.Eco.101 seems not to teach that you need to have people making money to buy the stuff made or no one will make the stuff.You do not end up with capital if you just play with stock. You need some thing people whan and can buy.

[1932]

6. Consumer credit is the new WPA. It's not making anything lasting and

it can't go on forever.

There is so little consumer debt that is productive -- borrowing for a reasonably priced education that makes you more employable at higher wages makes sense. Borrowing to own a reasonably priced home makes sense. Borrowing to own a reasonably priced, inexpensive to own and operate automobile makes sense. But are any of those three thrings descriptive of contemporary America?

People are borrowing to get educations in a crappy job market, to buy overpriced homes, and to buy SUVs when gas is $3/gallon. Furthermore, they're borrowing to buy a lot of consumer goods that do not return the investment.

[nashville_brook]

7. borrowing for food -- for the unemployed

even more WPA.