Hey Virginia! - Kaine up by 8 in Roanoke College poll

[DancingBear]

(snips from an email I just received)

"And today comes the latest evidence, in the form of a Roanoke College poll showing Tim Kaine surging ahead of Jerry Kilgore by 8 points (margin of error plus or minus 5 points)! In other words, according to this poll, Tim Kaine is leading Jerry Kilgore by between 3 and 13 points right now.

Interestingly, it now looks like this past Sunday's Washington Post poll, which showed Kaine ahead by 3 points, 47%-44%, was actually not "slanted against the Republican candidate in an effort to suppress Republican turnout," as the Kilgore campaign absurdly and pitifully claimed. In fact, if anything, the poll was slanted too heavily TOWARDS Jerry Kilgore, given today's Roanoke College poll results. Gee, I just can't wait to hear how the Kilgore campaign and his numerous apologists spin this one!

That's right, let's see how they spin findings like these from the Roanoke College poll:

*Kaine is leading by 4:1 among "moderates" and by 2:1 among "independents" *Kaine and Kilgore are TIED in Kilgore's home region of Southwest Virginia, while Kaine is actually LEADING by 5 points in the Valley region "

[Tiggeroshii]

1. YAY!

I'm hoping these Democrats prevail in the reddest of states! Blue Governor's is a start for a blue Senate! Congrats guys!

[davidwparker]

9. We're sick of * administration here too.

[Pirate Smile]

2. Woo Hoo. Awesome momentum. How many days until election day?

[DancingBear]

3. Nov. 8th n/t

[11 Bravo]

4. I'm going door-to-door for the Kaine campaign here in northern VA.

Kilgore is a smarmy little fucker who scares the Hell out of me.

[DancingBear]

5. Where are you in NoVA?

I'm about an hour or so west of D.C.

[11 Bravo]

6. I'm in Vienna.

About 1 1/2 miles west of the Beltway.

[DancingBear]

11. Fauquier County

About a half hour west of Manassas. :hi:

[11 Bravo]

15. I remember when Manassas was the end of the world.

Now you can hop on 66 and be there in 30 min. Howdy, neighbor!

:hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Actually, that's not what margin of error means

The margin is applied to BOTH numbers, not the margin itself.

You didn't give specific numbers. Let's say Kaine leads the poll 49-41. Therefore, Kaine's theoretical margin of support is 5 points either way of 49, which would be 44 to 54. Kilgore would be between 36 and 46. So the lead is actually not outside the margin of error because Kilgore's high of 46 beats Kaine's low of 44. That is where the 95% confidence level kicks in, of the poll being within the margin of error.

Pundits routinely make this mistake, even network talking heads. I heard Jeff Greenspan do it last year on CNN. I had to correct TIA on this post election last year and he threw a fit until links were provided to establish I was correct.

On edit; somehow I forgot to thank you for the poll and the awesome news, regardless of the margin of error technicalities. This race is potentially huge for 2008, since Virginia may be a pivotal state and we need to make sure no Harris/Blackwell shenanigans occur.

[DancingBear]

12. Um, I copied an email for discussion

I promise, if I want a detailed discussion on mathematical margins of error:re poll results I'll call you right up.

Honest.

In the interim, I think I'l happily digest this latest bit of news, thank you.

On edit: You're welcome. :)

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Yeah, I should have looked at your post more carefully

I didn't notice the mention of an email, just the 3 to 13 margin of error aspect.

I hope that was from an individual. If it's a company email or from a Kaine or Democratic group, they need to brush up on how polls work. Just a pet peeve of mine, since my job is in statistics.

[wakeme2008]

8. Two guys in an elevator today in Roanoke talking about

How dirty Kilgore was in this campaign. :)

OK I have to pass a sign for Kilgore outside of a Bug man place so I guess Kilgore has the Tom Delay bug businesses. :rofl:

[FSogol]

10. Hopefully some of this will rub off on Creigh Deeds.

Looks like he is trailing.

[The River]

13. That IS Good News

Maybe people are starting to recognize smear campaigns
and don't like it. Kaine has fought off those attacks
with good counter ads of his own. Might this be a sign that
Virginia is going Blue in 06 & 08?

[Rowdyboy]

16. Tim Kaine will make a great governor for Virginia....

And beating Kilgore will be SOOOOOOO FINE!!! What an obnoxious, classless, ass

[kansasblue]

17. I saw the Kilgore....

flip flop ads while in DC.

I try to be objective and they seems to invoke memories of the Kerry flip flop attacks. And normally one might think that they worked then and they'd work now. But it reminded me of Bush. And as such I think people in Virginia are seeing the ads as baseless and Kilgore as Bush-lite. Down he goes, with Bush, in the polls.

[snowbear]

18. Go Kaine Go!