The Social Psychology of Dean's Plummet

[On the Road]

I've been dredging up my psych major past thinking about what happened to Dean last week. And there were a couple of factors going on that I haven't seen mentioned.


There's a lot of talk on DU about who was to blame. Obviously, Dean and his campaign were responsible for his image. And while the spin made it very difficult, Dean was not effective at countering his supposed negatives. It doesn't matter that the anger and instability were invented -- they were perceived and changed voters' minds.


Voeters can support a winner with personality questions. But losing in Iowa compounded the problem. No one wants to associate with a loser. It's not a noble trait -- in fact, it's a terrible commentary on human nature. But Dean became such a dominant front-runner partly partly because people saw him as a winner. When that image turned, so did his support.

The scream speech itself didn't help, but by itself it wasn't crucial. Personally, I liked the speech. I didn't see what the fuss was about. But some people, including even some Dean supporters, were turned off. Despite the media's irresponsibility (without the hype, how many people would have seen it or remembered it?), the speech was unsuccessful image management.


But what really created the perfect storm for Dean was the circle of taunts over the scream. The media acted like a bunch of Nelsons (the annoying kid on the Simpsons who goes "Ah-hah!.") For a couple of crucial days, it was difficult to find a Dean defender.

This is propaganda and peer pressure at its most destructive. It's basic social psychology -- the blue eyes/brown eyes experiment, for example. It doesn't matter what someone actually does. To be the subject of universal taunts is degrading. There is a sense of shame attached to the target. It is not harmless fun. Nobody is going to vote for a candidate who is universally mocked.

People can be attracted to a candidate if there are two clear sides. One reason Bush has survived is that he has a large vocal base of support. Dean needed immediate defenders in the media, from public figures, from call-ins -- all the people who belatedly decided it was overkill.

But it came too late. Three days is an eternity in the week leading up to a primary. All the people just making up their minds were immediately turned off. No one wants to support the universal butt of jokes.


The result was that the undecided voters were estranged. Cognitive dissonance says that you justify your choices to yourself, especially those which are ambiguous or unclear. You talk yourself into those choices. An argument you might have found persuasive a few days before is dismissed after a choice is made. All those persuadable voters suddenly became unpersuadable.

This is not good news for Dean. I think he is a wonderful candidate and has tried to do the right things to regain his footing (although it unavoidably meant giving some credence to the taunts). It will take a lightning bolt to change the campaign now. It's happened before, but time is running out.

[jsw_81]

1. I've noticed that many Dean supporters are going through the stages

You know, denial, anger, depression etc.

[ibegurpard]

2. stages of what?

you're talking about grief? A little soon for that, my friend.

[jsw_81]

5. I see that you're currently in the denial stage

[nolabels]

6. You are not doing that sig line any favors

ABB

[jsw_81]

8. Why?

Because I merely pointed out that a Dean supporter is in denial about his candidate's doomed campaign?

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nolabels]

13. Ridicule of people having difficulties is not a way to make freinds

Often others will even turn against you for such actions. As a matter of fact I think i will go contribute $50 to Dean just to make me feel better, thanks

[Capn Sunshine]

16. Get back to us in May

Hubris is a funny attitude.

The Bob Dole of the 21st century will yet shoot himself in the foot.

[On the Road]

4. That May be True

People tend to react to disappointment in predictable ways.

But I think most core Dean supporters have come back to Dean even if they were a little turned off by the speech.

I was mostly thinking of the mass of shallow supporters and undecideds where the nomination will be won or lost. You can staff a campaign with a dedicated core of supporters, but ultimately you have to win the casual voters over.

[jpgray]

3. Excellent post

I agree with all your main points. Certainly Dean erred in giving the media a perfectly packaged clip to "substantiate" their angry-Dean spin, but on the whole it says more about how the media can sensationalize the intangibles (earth tones, anyone?) to the point where they have irretrievably defined a candidate. And yes, that sucks.

[On the Road]

7. The Climb is Steeper with a Hostile Media

but if you're the kind of candidate Dean is, you just have to accept it and counter it. No candidate is perfect -- look at the missteps that Clinton made early on.

Any type of movement that challenges established power or practices has the same hurdles. Civil rights, suffrange, temperance, gay rights -- You have to be twice as good and work twice as hard. The ones that overcome those hurdles are the ones that succeed.

The problem now is the time frame. The primaries were arranged to annoint the winner of IA and NH. I love Dean, but time is running out.

[Gin]

9. Geez...since when did 2 states create the end result? Hell...why vote..

the outcome according to some here is Kerry and a done deal...

Just wait folks...when you are on top...the only way to go is down..it does'nt feel good but it does and will happen to all of them.

So enjoy the highs...Kerry supporters...the flip side hurts.

[no_hypocrisy]

10. You are correct. The masses will react in a herd mentality vs. individual

opinions.

And they will react to the emotional vs. the cognitive/intellectual.

Maybe Kazan's premise in A Face In The Crowd was correct, that political figures can be sold like manufactured products by a Madison Avenue agency to mindless consumers. If they feel good about their choice, that's who/what they'll choose. All other issues are too complicated and irrelevant to their lives.

It's a shame when opinions challenging the criticism of "the shout" are rare and muted.

Excellent post.

[On the Road]

11. Thanks -- A Lot of Politics

is managing people's herd instincts.

Dean managed his herd of core supporters very well, but didn't extend it well to the masses. They're different skills.

Several months ago, Dean had locked up his base and needed to solidify his support among less political people. That's what insiders like Neel are good for. Dean's campaign was a victim of his front-runner status -- why fix something that isn't broke?

[CWebster]

14. Right and I am going to keep on pounding this

Just prior to Iowa, all of the dirt was flooding the airways and print media attacking Dean. After Iowa the pounding doubled over the speech.

A week or so prior to Iowa, Kerry met with every media player of weight from Time, Newsweek, NYtimes, Slate, CNN, WP---all together in the same room.

The fix was in.

[cthrumatrix]

15. and the Osama ad "magically appeared" before Iowa

can't wait to see who paid for that...Gep , Kerry ..DNC or all three?

[nolabels]

17. Thanks, at least I can say I heard it here first

That might of been worth the other $49. Its fun contributing knowing it just burns their buns knowing that it's still happening.

I hope they are not thinking that they will win an audience that way. I never read any of the rags anyway, but a little more cement couldn't hurt ;-)