You know, we just might retake Congress in 2006.

[UrbScotty]

Don't believe me? Hear me out.

Call me an optimist (because, naturally, that’s what I am), but I see a legitimate chance that the Democratic Party just might wind up with control of the House AND Senate in thirteen months.

Let’s start with the House, which I argue we have a better chance of retaking than the Senate.

Marshall (GA)
Barrow (GA)
Boswell (IA)
Melancon (LA)
Herseth (SD)
Edwards (TX)
Matheson (UT)
Ted Strickland’s open seat in Ohio may also become competitive.

We currently have 202 Democrats in the House. The Daily Kos lists 88 seats we could possibly win from Repubs next year. Of these, we must win 15 or 16 (depending on whether or not we gain Sanders’s open seat in Vermont) plus however many are lost to the other party.

Kos says 18 of these seats favor the Democrats, while 24 are toss-ups. Seventeen of the eighteen seats are listed below:

Beauprez (CO)*
Simmons (CT)
Shays (CT)
Shaw (FL)
Kirk (IL)
Nussle (IA)*
Leach (IA)*
Northup (KY)
Bass (NH)
Wilson (NM)
Walsh (NY)
Hayes (NC)
English (PA)
Gerlach (PA)
Weldon (PA)
Fitzpatrick (PA)
Reichert (WA)

*Beauprez, Nussle, and Leach are not seeking re-election.

Delaware’s at-large seat is seen by Kos as leaning Dem, except that Mike Castle usually wins by landslides. But if we win the other “lean Dem” seats plus Vermont, we could lose two seats and still have control.

See the Kos article to see a list of the toss-ups.

232 Repubs in the House - 24 toss-ups - 17 lean/safe Dem seats = 191 Safe GOP seats. 202 Dem seats - 8 vulnerable seats = 194 safe Dem seats.

Now what about the Senate? We would need to gain six seats (assuming Sanders wins in Vermont).

First, we will want to defend our seats. For the little name recognition he has compared to Tom Kean Jr. (son of the ex-governor), New Jersey’s Bob Menendez is off to an okay start, leading Kean in a couple recent polls. Just wait until more people link Kean to Bush, and it should be a more sizable lead.

Polls in Minnesota also put Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling in slight, statistically insignificant leads over Bush pal Mark Kennedy. Again, Kennedy needs to be linked to Bush.

Ben Cardin is the slight front-runner for both the Democratic nomination and the general election in Maryland. Voters need to be reminded that Michael Steele is the Lieutenant governor in a not-so-clean Ehrlich administration.

The State of Washington is home to Maria Cantwell, the most vulnerable Democrat seeking re-election, IMO. She leads her opponent, a wealthy businessman, by 11 points.

If we hold those seats (and that’s a big IF), we will need to gain six seats.

Bush-lover Jon Kyl will not be a shoe-in when he faces Jim Pederson, thanks in part to his sub-50% approval rating. Conrad Burns also has a low approval rating, while Brian Schweitzer’s is high. Look for John Morrison or Jon Tester to make this race competitive. Also look for a hot race in Rhode Island. If CONservative Steve Laffey wins the primary there - or even if Lincoln Chafee wins - we have an excellent shot at taking this seat.

Recent polls actually have Jim Talent and Mike DeWine LOSING their races (albeit by statistically insignificant margins) to Claire McCaskill and Sherrod Brown. Harold Ford also leads his potential opponents in Tennessee by small margins.

55 Repub seats - 7 vulnerable seats = 48 safe GOP seats. 44 Dem seats - 4 vulnerable ones = 40 safe seats.

Again, call me optimistic, and maybe I had a little too much egg nog last night. But I do think the way things are going, we could see the Democratic Party win control of the 110th United States Congress. Granted, we know how Bush’s spin machine likes to work, and who knows what kind of factor Diebold will play. But if we have fair elections, and if all of us work hard to elect a Democratic Congress (two more big IFs), I foresee quite an election for our party.

So I hope you all make a New Year's resolution to do your part for fair elections and for Democratic victories in 2006 and a Democratic Congress in 2007. Because if we do, impeachment may be a very serious possibility.

You gotrta believe, folks, you gotta believe.

[SteppingRazor]

1. I don't know about the House, but in the Senate...

I think we'll come very close, but not quite go all the way. I've got my Senate picks listed here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2322212&mesg_id=2322212

[IndyOp]

2. But First! The voting system must be fair... Get Dean to initiate

a 50-state Plan to inhibit, detect, and battle election fraud!

[Redneck Socialist]

3. You can take Bass (R-NH) off the list

He's not going anywhere. He's on the vulnerable incumbent list every two years and always wins handily. I could go into why but it's not of much interest to anyone unless they live in NH.

Call me an pessimist (because, naturally, that’s what I am), but I don't see a legitimate chance that the Democratic Party will wind up with control of either the House or Senate in thirteen months. :P (Sorry, I couldn't resist)

We will make some gains, but I'll eat this post (monitor and all) if we take back either house.

[UrbScotty]

5. Hope you're hungry (nt)

[Redneck Socialist]

6. We'll see

:) I hope you're right.

[UrbScotty]

8. Do I hear your stomach grumbling?

;-)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. My repuke conman isn't on the list

and I'm not surprised, as even Bill Clinton lost to repukes to take the 3rd Arkansas congressional district. But Jan Judy, a great Dem, did well against Boozman last time. My dilemma is this: should I support the local Dem candidate in hopes that a miracle could happen, or should I send money to a worthy Dem in a race that is more likely to be won?

[UrbScotty]

7. Decide after the primary, based on who wins that (nt)