What would you do if another Great Depression hit?

[NickB79]

There has been a lot of talk about rising energy prices, the housing market bubble deflating, the smallest GDP growth in years, the massive deficits the US is running up, etc. I am personally becoming quite worried about a second Great Depression setting in.

I'm curious if any other DU'ers have given much thought to how they would survive through it? Move to the country? Stay in the cities? Resort to crime?

[Avalux]

1. Probably do what they did during the first Depression.

Consolidate - a lot of family members living together - grandparents, aunts & uncles, kids, etc.

[Ishoutandscream2]

5. Yep. My mom and in-laws all own their own homes

Plenty of land for planting crops, too. Unfortunately, we would have to move with the parental units because, of course, we have a good sized mortgage to pay off (among other things).

[NickB79]

18. That's my plan as well

Between my dad and his 7 brothers, they own over 1000 acres of farmland in central Minnesota. All of them live within 15 miles of the 200-acre family farm my grandmother still has. With all of us working together, we should do ok. Most of the land will not be farmed simply because diesel fuel may become too expensive to run the tractors daily, but there shouldn't be any problem growing at least enough food for ourselves and some to sell. The land could be set up for grazing livestock, however, so that would be a source of income instead of crops.

My girlfriend's biggest worry about living on the farm is boredom. She would be lost without an extensive library of books to read or her Playstation to play on :-)

[BILL53]

63. great depression day

yep, people had land back during the great depression day and lost it! if you owe you will lose it unless you can cough it up at once!

[Warpy]

13. My grandparents were fairly well off

although my mother remembers eating oatmeal three times a day for over a year, she did manage to eat something three times a day. Nobody took in boarders and they kept their own homes.

My paternal grandmother fed anyone who showed up hungry, always kept a pot of something on the stove. If my grandfather was around, they had to weed the flower beds after they ate, but my grandmother was a softer touch and just fed them and wished them well. I've already given food to homeless people in my area, so I guess that tradition will continue.

One thing that will change is that we're all going to have to rediscover the lost arts of mending and simple appliance repairs. I know how to do 'em both, but gawd, it's been nice not to have to.

[Jawja]

51. My Mom

talks about how her Grandparents had everyone and their wives and children living with them as well. My Great Grandfather ran a mill and my Great Grandmother had a big garden and they fed whoever came along hungry. They didn't take anybody in, though, except family.

[Singular73]

2. I would laugh every time a freeper perished from starvation

[Raydawg1234]

8. you make me sick

[Singular73]

9. I dont care.

[Raydawg1234]

31. Laughing at the death of another human being, you sound like a freeper

[Deja Q]

45. Humans care about others. Freepers care for nobody save themselves.

Or 'except for themselves', perhaps? Or both... either way, they only give a frig about themselves. Even newt gingrich divorced his wife when she was in hospital!

Why should I help a scumbag who goes around proudly telling people he doesn't donate to charity?

Hell, why should I answer his constant questions he asks at work? He thinks being so macho and alone is cool, let him have a glimpse of that it TRULY is like. No more double-standard shit.

Let him laugh. Right now I'm torn between crying AND laughing. These blind jerkwards have supported the folks who are about to exterminate us to ensure their financial viability. It's not christian, but it's reality.

[sarcasmo]

69. Freepers care about the bottom line, life before birth and JEBUS.

They sure don't care about the elderly or the poor.

[Jara sang]

54. Fuck republicans, freepers, conservatives the whole lot.

I wouldn't laugh, I just wouldn't care about them period.

[Township75]

26. What would you do if you die before them...

and they end up laughing at you as you perish from starvation?

Unless you are really overweight...then maybe you could outlast some of them.

[mtnsnake]

71. If he dies before them, he sure won't be worrying about what he'd do!

LOL!

[NanciNice]

28. I don't laugh when others starve.

I couldn't--my mind doesn't even know how to go there.

[txaslftist]

3. I guess we're about to find out...

[YOY]

4. Move to Europe...I married a European so it wouldn't be hard

Write a short email to everyone I know who voted for the shithead and tell them to soak their Bush given "freedom" up and that I tried to warn them, but they called me an evil liberal!

Yeah, soak it up!

[pitohui]

16. the great depression was world wide

don't see how moving to europe would make any difference, all it would do is make you more vulnerable to be poor in a foreign country where you may or may not be able to get aid

[YOY]

22. When her family already has a farm with livestock and vegetables and

everything one could need for low-level sustinance...it wouldn't be any worse than here...but less freepers to tempt me to kill them.

[pitohui]

24. okay that'll work

but keep in mind as a farmer at least in usa during the depression you were eligible for less aid than was offered to others

my dad has a story abt not eating lunch for a yr, the family was poor but because they had a farm he was barred from the public lunch program, as it's rather difficult to eat tobacco he just didn't get to eat

[BrotherBuzz]

6. Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without.

Strange, I've been living by that credo for years and thrive. Perhaps I can make a fortune teaching rich yuppies how to survive if and when those dark days return.

[proReality]

14. The very quote my grandparents used...

and we've been living by. And it doesn't hurt once one gets over the feeling they have to have every toy in the toy store.

[Warpy]

15. Oh, poverty has caused me to learn how to do a lot of things

I can fix a toilet, bake bread, rewire almost anything, knit yarn I spin myself, do drywall, grow veggies, do interior and exterior painting, and make my own clothes without a pattern. Oh, and cook incredibly nutritious food for practically nothing.

I'm willing to teach newly helpless right wing yuppies how to do this stuff, but it's gonna cost 'em.

I'm compassionate but I'm no pushover. It'll just be my turn.

[BrotherBuzz]

20. Maybe money challenged, but never let them label you poor!

Together, we can lead the sheep to safe pastures. Perhaps we should incorporate and franchise! ;)

[ChickMagic]

7. I'd go into a great depression

I honestly don't know how or if I'd survive.
But I would be somewhat cheered up by freep
distress.

[BrotherBuzz]

11. Don't worry, there are Luddites like me who will help you....

Seriously

[ChickMagic]

36. Thanks for that

Knowing that DU exists keeps me sane. :hug:

[lvx35]

10. Organize

pull people together for protection. Start living in groups, communist style. They say it was greed that caused the first one.

[RufusEarl]

12. Depression coming?

I was talking to a friend about just this subject last night. Coming home the other night I noticed a guy walking with a bedroll, and it made me think of the great depression.

It also made me think of the difference between then and now, and the one thing I couldn't shake was our population. With so many people in this country @ 300 million, it will turn into complete havoc.

Lawlessness on a scale that boggles the mind, goods and services no longer available to the general public, homelessness on a grand scale, it's frightening to even consider.

[Deja Q]

40. Hence the "Patriot Act" and all of its added provisions.

They've known for some time.

But there are other ways if the liberals in elected office dare fight back...

EMP. It's as simple as that. (I've made :tinfoilhat: posts on DU and EMP is all over google. Until they censor it away.)

[Cats Against Frist]

17. All that stands between me and rural survival is one tank of gas

That is, if it's during the part of the year that I live in Iowa. I could drive to my parents' house -- guns, well water, hunting skills -- and my aunt, across the street, runs a large dairy farm. The child molester down the road has a chicken empire. Atkins, baby!!

If I was in Seattle, however, and it were some kind of immediate disaster, I'd be screwed.

This is a good time to bring up my beef with new urbanism. There are tons of languishing rural communities, but the good liberals have to move to the coasts and the hip cities, and then, when they turn 40, need to re-create the style of life they rejected. I live in rural Iowa, and I can get all the independent films, baked tofu and microbrews that I want. And how nice is it to go to the local hole-in-the-wall, and find a bunch of boho liberals and anarchists at the bar?

[lvx35]

19. Yeah, hip cities are the liberal bane

sucking years of expensive rent out of pockets to live in what amounts to an elitist setting that you will have to leave when you are 40. We need to stop cluster-fucking onto fault lines and start making better places of the town we're in.

[Cats Against Frist]

32. It could also be said that it helps the Republicans

With the Democrats representing a larger percentage of the population, the overflow in cities and liberal areas could easily turn several Red States blue -- Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada -- and keep the red menace out of borderline states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine, NH, etc.

It's true -- and there are places in Red States that could easily be turned it to full-on liberal enclaves, and save the whole damn state. Eastern Iowa could damn near secede into a blue state. We have Iowa City, the literature locus of America, tons of organic farms -- and there are these BEAUTIFUL, BEAUTIFUL river towns, like Muscatine, IA that have fantastic Victorian and Early 20th century houses with all kinds of character -- and an already built town center, with the right infrastructure for a hopping little community. It's a shame.

[lvx35]

55. Well sure, absolutely

Not to mention that a lot of those landlords in cities like Seattle and San Francisco are millionaires at this point (charging $1500 a month for holes in the wall will do that) which makes many of them republican. In smaller towns working people can afford to put a down payment on a house instead of renting till they are 40...Its good to remember that after 10 years of city living, the hole in the wall cost you $180,000 you will never get back.

[Warpy]

29. I moved from Boston to New Mexico

for a lot of reasons, house prices and climate being two of the chief ones. I get what you mean about how largely rural areas have changed now. The northern part of this state is solidly Democrat. The southern half is infested with Texan ranchers. My own neighborhood is now inner city, but was built in 1952 when land was cheap and the supply looked endless, so I've got a huge amount of land compared to all the new McMansion farms (and even working class housing) in this town. All my neighbors have been turned into active Democrats by the present administration. There are two huge health food stores and half a dozen different ethnic markets within the range of my electric moped, and the thrift shops are great here. Visual arts are the big thing out here, and even thrift shop art is wonderful. Supermarkets are carrying large sections of organic and whole foods. The only thing I can't get much of is fish that is fresh enough to eat without loading it up with garlic and tomato to disguise the fact that the last time it swam was at least four days previously.

Since I can listen to my favorite weird radio station in Boston online now, the only thing I still miss about the city is the subway system. I spent the first two years out here checking out all the street corners for T signs, wondering what a city this size had done with its subway system. I mean, it really should have one, right?

All in all, moving out here where I could own a home that wasn't a badly renovated floor of a Jamaica Plain triple decker was a good idea. I'm very glad I did it.

[Cats Against Frist]

33. I hear you, about the fish

But there's this guy, who, in the summer, fishes out of the Gulf, then drives straight up here, fresh fish, packed in ice, to sell in the parking lot at the local DQ. Unfortunately, he probably won't be fishing too much, this year, because of the hurricane and the oil spill.

Even outside of Iowa City, there is community-supported agriculture, a health food store, a good natural fibers yarn store, community theater, a local cheese factory, and the Amish make all kinds of fresh and handicrafted goods. Plus, the thrift out here is amazing. A cool table that would cost you $300 in one of the thrift "boutiques" in Seattle, would set you back about $50 here.

When I lived in Seattle, full-time, I spent every dime I had on getting by -- with $800 rent for a 700 sq. foot bungalow, a 1985 Peugeot that I couldn't afford to insure, shit food, and late paymens on all my bills. I'm now paid up, living in a 2600 sq. foot Victorian house, with an acre of land, a 2001 station wagon, and almost everything I purchase is organic or good for the world, somehow.

That's the best part -- being able to afford quality, made-in-the-USA goods from union shops, and making quality choices for my family and community. Could be the smartest thing I've ever done.

I'm actually in this "phase" of deciding if I'm going to stay forever, or move back to Seattle, permanently -- and I think this post shows that I have my mind pretty made up.

[pitohui]

21. i would do as my forebears did i'm sure

in a deflationary style event like the great depression, cash is king, some of those old ladies purchased swamp land for pennies which became property worth millions in their old age when the interstates were planned and built

a little amt of savings becomes a lot during deflation

it's an ill wind that blows nobody any good, i'm afraid

if the housing bubble really did deflate (it won't, that's a dream of young people who see how impossible it is to buy manhattan, coast california, etc. homes on their incomes) but say it did, the people w. any little bit of savings would be idiots to run off to the country when they could buy at the bottom and retire in wealth in their later years

[NanciNice]

23. Depression

Aren't we already having one? If not, what are the signs?

[pitohui]

27. the GREAT depression was a deflationary event

i doubt it could happen today

there was 25 percent unemployment, prices dropped like a rock for lack of consumers, credit not as widely available to soften the impact, w. credit even the un and underemployed can string things out, so prices don't fall so sharply and suddenly

[sarcasmo]

70. Come to Michigan with the latest Ford job cuts, I bet unemployment here

will be approaching 20percent.

[area51]

75. "Aren't we already having one?"

Yes, I believe we are already having one. If you lose your job, it's extremely difficult to get another. A dying economy produces very few jobs. Never mind the official unemployment rate; I'm sure it's much higher than that.

And welcome to DU, NanciNice.

[bush_is_wacko]

25. A good friend of mine is already living the Great Depression.

She is inches from being thrown in the street (don't worry she can come here if that happens but I don't know how much longer we are going to be able to hold out either) Her electricity has been shut off twice while waiting for heating assistance to come through. She lost her $12 dollar an hour job w/o benes. two days before Christmas and has not found another yet. Needless to say with two teenage girls she has ALREADY been living in poverty for several years because her scumbag ex-husband wasn't paying her any child support until this month. She is driving around in a 20 year old car on bald tires and having to beg for gas money from friends and neighbors. She has spent the last two months going from food bank to food bank and trying to squeeze in job interviews in between. She looks so thin I'm surprised the wind doesn't blow her away!

I am very worried about her but she is still plugging away. With all this going on SHE STILL REFUSES TO TAKE MOST OF THE HELP SHE IS OFFERED. She just wants a damn job and enough food in her kids belly to survive.

I call that a great depression and the reality is I don't feel too far behind her.

[pitohui]

30. i don't call that a great depression and here's why

in the great depression there was a sense of this happened to everyone, even stockbrokers killed themselves because they lost all, the rich and poor were in the soup together

what is happening to your friend -- what has happened to many of my friends --
is there is NO sense of community, it is considered by the GOP and social darwinists to be a personal failing, "god wants you to be rich" and if you are poor it is because you are being punished for wrong you have done (having kids out of wedlock, getting a divorce, or just having the bad taste to have a skin color they don't like) and so there is no feeling of we're all in this together and no one should be blaming themselves

rather people are being hit w. constant blame for being economic victims

one of the worst things abt modern poverty is that it is so isolating, that the poor person is blamed by society and in the press for being poor

the attitudes of the great depression era were completely different

you knew you weren't alone then

[bush_is_wacko]

34. Even the wealthy are only one Chinese monetary withdrawal away

from losing it all, unless they have invested most of their money in China or Euros ,IMO. Our money has no monetary value.

As long as the poverty stricken stay out of the wealthy neighborhoods they will continue to be blamed for their poverty but I should add to this statement the fact that I have seen more homeless people walking around our streets lately than ever before. I happen to live in an extremely moderate home but we are surrounded by fairly wealthy people and we live in the suburbs. Eventually, the wealthy will take notice of all those people walking around with back packs and bed rolls. they will likely only take notice to complain until they start to feel some economic downturns. It just seems to take them a little longer than the rest of us.

We are not in a Great Depression yet and until we get there you will not see that kind of camaraderie. I agree modern poverty is extremely isolating and I wonder if anything will change with regard to that isolation when the bell truly tolls for us all. I sure as hell hope so because the alternative is pretty damn bad. If people were dying of starvation back then they will be dead on every street corner if no one is willing to help each other.

[Deja Q]

42. Incorrect. They'll just "Pull a Gates". And Gates isn't very patriotic...

Gates, in January 2005, converted his "earnings" to the Euro and then dissed the dollar.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aO.Rl7JwFWy8&refer=news_index

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gates, whose net worth of $46.6 billion makes him the world's richest person, is betting against the U.S. dollar.

``I'm short the dollar,'' Gates, chairman of Microsoft Corp., told Charlie Rose in an interview late yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down.''

I hope that when the dollar goes down, it takes the Euro with it. These bloodsucking leeches need to pay for the problems THEY CREATED.

[pitohui]

44. the dollar already went down

we're still here :shrug:

[Deja Q]

46. For how long? If it wasn't down, how come things still run?

They're not ready to pull the plug on us yet.

Oil is near $70 again, yet gas prices are still 80 cents short of what they were the last time oil was $70. They want things comparatively stable until THEY are ready.

[pitohui]

50. oh god it's still down, i'm just back

you haven't been to europe lately have you?

the dollar is and has been v. weak against the euro and the british pound pretty much since bush and snow got it and started in w. the "weak dollar" policy

things still run because a weak dollar apparently has some advantages for businesses, for instance, we get more tourism because europeans come here because their money goes a lot further and they buy stuff (see under las vegas shopping malls) because it's a better deal, also, it's good for import/export

but it's sure hell on you and i, the little guy, when we gotta travel

relative to gold, dollar is at the worse since the early reagan years, gold just hit a 25 year high!

and we all know it takes a lot more dollars to buy oil than it did pre-katrina


i guess it's like canada, their dollar is not worth for shit, but everything still runs fine, you adapt here and there and keep on going

[tabasco]

67. Damn straight.

The Euro started out at 80 cents.

Today it is $1.22 but has been higher.

That's a big difference for people that like o go over there on a few thousand bucks.

[bush_is_wacko]

74. The dollar is STILL way overvalued. In fact it is practically worthless.

We owe more money to China than there are people in China. Many whistle blowers have been trying to tell the public that there is also a shit load of $$$$ missing from a whole lot of federal gov't entities. This is not a small problem. This administration has pilfered our coffers BIG TIME. Our stocks are way overvalued, STILL. I can't yet figure out why China hasn't pulled the plug on us but I have no doubt they eventually will. And they aren't the only ones we owe money to.

We are still here and even in the event they do pull the plug we will STILL be here. We will just drop even further into the realm of a third world country. Those that have a lot of money have likely already converted to markets with REAL value so I think as far as a Great Depression goes it will be a lot different this time. The people jumping from windows aren't likely to be the big time wealthy. Instead, this time it will be average people like me who have 401K's and IRA's that have been sitting for years untouched and not really gaining much.

We ain't seen NOTHING yet when it comes to the dollar devaluation. I don't know how "fixable" it is. Frankly, I feel sorry for the next President whether he be Dem, Liberal,or Repub. This country will have to deal with this mess. We are overextended and claiming bankruptcy really isn't an option for us. No ones going to erase our debts for us. We have way too many. It's become the "American" way.

[catmandu57]

35. We would do okay

We may have to go to my mils, I wouldn't like it, but... Anyway we live in a rural area, My mother in law has a house and land a few miles from here next to the Missouri and Nodaway rivers. They also still have the original homestead, we could farm it and it's timbered to supply wood for building, heat, etc.
It wouldn't be a great stretch from the way we live now, our greatest luxury is a monthly visit to the Chinese Buffet, so, we'de get by.

[triguy46]

37. The dreams of my hippie youth will pay off

Our house and 15 acres is paid for. Have been a corporate drone for 25 years, the payoff being I'm debt free, kids earned full rides. I can grow enough veggies and raise enough chickens to get by and have more to sell.

[MadHound]

38. We would do OK, for we've been preparing

Moved out to the country, growing our own food. Will have a woodstove this summer, so we'll have heat in the winter. Hopefully it will hold off until I have the wind turbine installed, thus will have electricity.

Would probably have to sell off some spare land in order to pay off the mortage. Would probably take in some friends and/or family who were less fortunate.

It would be rough, but having been homeless at one point in my life, I know I can deal with it. Sadly, many others won't.

[Deja Q]

39. Read 'Final Exit' and then do it. :(

Personally, I think something bigger is going to happen at just the right moment. The US is no longer economically viable. Therefore they will want to stop our empty usage of oil so more of it can be used on the mindlessly exploited overseas.

And it can be done without ruining the environment too. Though the time it would take for us all to die would be considerable. And highly unpleasant.

[pitohui]

41. jeez is that marvin the depressed android or what?

i know i can always count on you, toad, to bring a little ray of sunshine and hope into any discussion!

:-)

[Deja Q]

47. Yes, but unlike you I also have medical problems. No money = no meds.

Live in pain or die painlessly?

Tell me that the next time you get all sarky on me, m'kay?

BTW: I am neither optimist or pessimist. Only theoretical realist.

[pitohui]

52. i had chronic pain for i'm embarrassed to say how many yrs

makes me sound old

but, yeah, i know it's no fun to have intractable pain

i just find it easier to laugh than to cry

not willing to die painlessly quite yet, they'll have to drag me away kicking

courage, i know you can make it

[NCarolinawoman]

43. I would turn my entire yard into a vegetable garden.

I'm already half-way there. Hopefully, since I have a large yard, I could share this food with others. I would also have chickens for eggs, not meat. They are good foragers when alowed to run loose. They are happier,too.

Then, I guess, I would have to learn about canning techniqes.

Oh, I would stop throwing out socks when they have holes in them. I would sit down and darn them. LOL.

[leftofthedial]

48. repukes create depressions

when allowed to rule for more than half the time

check it out

[Cleita]

49. I'm thinking of converting my savings to Euros, but

I don't know enough about it yet to really do it. I do feel it's going to happen, the inflation. Somewhere down the line the feds are going to have to devalue the dollar to reduce the crushing debt Bush has incurred for us. It would be one way of doing it.

I really wonder if there is anyway to track what they are doing with their money. You know Cheney and company. If we knew when they start putting their money into different currencies or gold, it might be a tip off that they are about to do something.

[pitohui]

53. you missed the boat

it's the same as people advising you to buy gold when the price just hit a 25 yr high!

the dollar already dropped like a rock against the euro, the time to buy was years ago when the currency was just introduced and the dollar was strong against the euro, too late now to get the big movement, it has already happened

cheney and the rest have financial disclosure, the problem is the voters just didn't care that he gets performance-based returns from halliburton and thus had every incentive to start a war if that is what it took to keep halliburton out of bankruptcy because of their asbestos claims

they aren't secret abt this stuff, snow said flat-out he supported a soft dollar policy and wham, our dollar went soft, the euro is strong, and here we sit

it isn't a question of them being able to keep their dealings secret, they can't, it's a question of the information isn't used by most of us

[Cleita]

59. I think I did too, but even if I got Euro tomorrow wouldn't it

be better than a year from now?

[pitohui]

61. no why would it?

if you had bought your euros last january would you be better off, no, because it was already too late, and you'd have been eaten alive by the currency exchange costs, which have also become obscene

the euro vs. the dollar has settled into a range where it bounces around a little but the dollar overall maintains its weakness compared to pre-soft dollar policy

when you just have random bouncing around in a small range, the little guy ends up slowly losing everything over time to transaction costs

it's like a dice game, ever play dice? the transaction costs for dice are less than for currency if you play the pass line w. odds, yet, you notice, if you keep playing, even if you start out winning, eventually you lose all because even a small transaction costs end up slowly eating you alive

currency speculation is v. much a game for experts played w. money they can afford to lose, because often times they do lose and big time, millions and sometimes billions of dollars

[Cleita]

64. Thanks. This is what I needed to know.

It doesn't make me feel confident but at least, now I know to sit and bear whatever the market throws at me.

[kineneb]

56. watch Hubby slowly die from kidney failure

and then I would drift into depression due to lack of meds. That is, if the brown stuff really hits the fan.

otherwise...

We live in the country, so I have been building raised beds in the garden and planting fruit trees. Our overhead is quite low and we are surviving on a minimal income. I learned canning and preserving from my grandmother, and the weather here allows for drying fruit outside. Utilities would be a problem.

[Cleita]

60. Oh, I'm so sorry.

My husband died from kidney disease a year ago. I know how hard it is. My thoughts and good wishes are with you.

[kineneb]

66. thanks

Hubby is on dialysis, but through a catheter in his chest. Without the machine, he would slowly die, as would all the other dialysis patients now covered by Medicare/Medicaid. Living with renal failure would become a privilege for the wealthy, like everything else.

[Cleita]

68. If this gets cut off by these bastards, then I know we are

in Hell. Medicare and Medicaid covers this for all dialysis patients because no health plan will. It was one of the safety nets.

[burrowowl]

57. During the Great Depression

America was still rural and could grow food.
Transport will break down so getting food and buying food will become problamatic (bread costs 2 cents a loaf, but many still couldn't afford it). And even if you own you home, will you be able to pay the property taxes?
The U$A is in debt, like it wasn't in the 30's, who will loan the U$A money?
etc.

[pitohui]

62. not so, there was a drought, they couldn't grow food

that was sorta the point of my dad's story above, even some gov't officials stupidly thought if you lived in the country, you could grow your own food, not necessarily so

what happened in great depression is because of the drought going on for years, the dust bowl came and soil basically blew into the atmosphere

thus farmers had to leave their land or else die of hunger and thirst for nothing grows w.out soil or water

as the drought is predicted to affect much of the midwest and really all of the actual west, then i think most people who fantasize abt being safe and secure on their safe little plot in the country are going to either die or else end up abandoning their land a la the joads

the northeast is supposed to miss the worst of the drought effects of global climate change but how many of us have snug little farms in upper ny state, not too many methinks

[burrowowl]

72. Dust Bowl

and in the mid-west, the present bread basket of the US, the same conditions of promoting soil erosion are occurring. Scary!
Also my grampa watched tons of potatoes being bulldozed into the earth because grocery store were not getting enough money to pay for the costs and transports since noone could afford them, this was at the beginning before FDR got the Gov't into relief.

[meisje]

58. The next great depression will hit DU on Tuesday

:nuke:

[Dogmudgeon]

65. Don't think it -- or WORSE -- can't happen.

Let's look at JUST the "Peak Oil" phenomenon, separate from the USA's terrible balance-of-payments situation, the decline of the Dollar, the financial hemorrhage that is the War on "Terrah", and the other economic diseases vectored to us by the verminous policies of the Bush Administration.

Right now we're on a "bumpy plateau". That's a Peak Oil state. So now, instead of having a predictable oil market, no one knows when the plateau will turn into a decline. Thus, the price of oil is brittle and jumpy. Every time the price changes, instead of changing by a few pennies, it changes by several dollars. And this will only get worse.

Until ...

Until we realize that we've actually been in decline, or post-Peak Oil. At that point, there will be a multi-market panic unless the Gummint steps in and closes the markets.

Why?

Well, in order to avoid a depression, we have to keep our averaged, long-term growth at a certain point. No one is certain what the exact point is, but the corresponding energy consumption growth has historically been 2.5-3% per year. And when I say "depression", I don't mean a recession brought on by the crash of some small financial market composed entirely of paper. No, I mean a depression that happens when the actual wealth of a nation declines -- severely.

In an oil production decline, OPEC and several American oil think tanks have estimated that the decline in available oil will be OVER 5% per year as a result of decreased supplies alone. The decrease in the ability to buy petroleum-derived energy will be steeper because several other factors enter into the equation.

Instead of 3% growth, we'll have a 5% decline. That's an 8% shortfall; the almost-immediate development of a gap of approximately one twelfth of the economic power we need to avoid lapsing into decline, the economic equivalent of a severe catabolic crisis, sometimes called cachexia by physicians; or, more commonly, wasting.

Five years after the end of Peak Oil and into the post-Peak economy, avalable oil will be down 25% and the price will be well over the magic $180/bbl price that petro-economist Matthew Simmons estimated was oil's highest stable point.

Five years after the end of Peak Oil, we'll be able to buy LESS THAN 75% of what we need; and that will cost three, five times as much as it used to. And that's a brief time. We've had the Bush monkey on our back for SIX years this week.

Can you imagine what will happen when a quarter to a half of our required energy disappears, and we have to pay out the sweet patootie for the rest?

Here's the sad, sick irony: residential and domestic use of energy is about 1/8th of the entire energy use, and with some quick thinking and re-engineering, we could cut that by 50% without causing so much as a shiver. But the main problem any energy shortage brings is an impact to the financial and economic system. Small industries and transportation will quickly go bankrupt. So the lights won't go out, and the Internet will probably stay up, and most of us will be unemployed, and be kicked out of our apartments and heavily-mortgaged homes within a few months by a terrified financial class struggling to pay their own bills.

There's also a second fear involved. Over the past 50 years, the entire world has become dependent on high-energy food production. For fertilizer, we use ammonium nitrate recovered from natural gas production, though we can literally pull the nitrogen out of the air with a high-energy conversion process. Each calorie of vegetable-based food we grow requires five or more calories of energy. And it's more critical in Asia, where breadbasket areas have been made out of deserts and steppes.

The impact of a "power-down" on agriculture will be far more profound than simply on our way of life. This is exactly the issue on which the neo-Cons ridiculed Paul Ehrlich, who predicted famines for the 1980s; but Ehrlich didn't take into account our ability to put so much energy into food production. At some point, we WILL run short of "second chances", and the laughing will stop. And keep in mind, this is happening at a time when our climate is changing. If we are at the beginning of a climatic Heinrich Event, the temperature will spike in a few years, and then crash. The weather will turn cold and dry for several centuries.

This is where the dire predictions of "Die-Off" come from -- much less energy, much less food, and much less population in a generation -- or "much less". The USA will fare the best, as usual, but it will still be a terrible situation for most people to deal with. Places like south Asia may just plain starve in entirety.

Bad enough news for you? Well, let me tell you, that's just the start of the Devil's Chain of Causality. Most of those poor, arid, impacted areas will want to survive, too. They are mainly non-Arab Muslim and ostensibly Buddhist nations, and when they start to starve to death, they will be seeking a pound of flesh -- preferably in edible form -- from their rich Muslim cousins and the Developed World. Don't look for the Dalai Lama to start throwing nukes, but the Pakistanis already have nuclear bombs; the Indonesians have a huge population on what amounts to two large and dozens of small islands and a history of leaders who have been corrupt, violent and dumb (the good ones always seem to die young); and then, of course, we have China to deal with.

Is there any way out of this terrifying scenario of the future? Yes -- we can stop the bullshit laughing about "granola" and "Kumbayah" -- and our own outdated antinuclearism, as well as recent cynicism that all anxieties exist just to serve Bush -- and immediately get to work on energy production technologies. Hopefully, whoever is president in 2009 will have enough intelligence to initiate something like the Manhattan Project for energy.

This is one of the strongest reasons why the Al Gore haters should ease up on their spite. We may not need him, or even get him, as President, but we're going to need his expertise -- especially controlling the historically bad habits of the nuclear industry, which will be both vital and demand strict public oversight. Although many reading this may bristle at the prospect of nuclear power, it may be what saves us. And if we have to twist a few corporate arms and kick a few ideological testicles to keep it safe, so be it.

As it is now, we've dallied and dithered so long that we will certainly not be spared at least some pain. This "pain" is the kind of thing that we will want to keep to a bare minimum, since it will entail far more than just waiting in long lines for expensive gasoline on alternate days of the week.

What are we facing? A visitation by a band of very real Angels of Death, who will proceed to establish a New World Order that is, basically, one thousand Holocausts over the next 30-50 years. (This assumes you're not a "holocaust revisionist". If you are, adjust your math accordingly, and then go fuck yourself with some large, sharp power tools available from www.goatse.cx)

That's what a rapid powerdown, followed by an era of famine, intertwined with nuclear blackmail, set in an era of dramatic climate change, would do.

We have a choice: We either roll our sleeves up first thing Monday morning and get to work, or we resign ourselves to a world that will be visited by a half-century of unspeakable horror and mass public death. That's the price we pay for mismanagement of our large, complex "civilization".

I think it will be easier to achieve our planetary salvation through the application of work, creative thought, and a commitment to goodwill. That's the Liberal solution. I think it's the only humane solution. And that's why I advocate it.

--p!

[Porcupine]

73. I'll take the "mass public death" and a mochachino.

Seriously, there is no real momentum in the US towards acknowledging reality on so many levels. It just doesn't bother anybody anymore that the whole works teeters on the verge of collapse. Huge numbers of americans couldn't fix a toilet to save their lives yet expect their meals to show up every day at the store.

We are spending more than we earn as a nation and nobody seems to mind. Even weirder people keep lending us money. It makes as much sense as lending money to a meth addict. It just doesn't occur to us that maybe the rumours of the bridge being out means we should stop the damn train.

Personally I live in one of the most productive food producing areas in the world. An energy crisis will just mean we will be fat with a lack of spare parts. You can literally walk around the town I live in and feed yourself on walnuts, almonds, oranges and greens......in January. If you know how to make and fix things, and I do, you're home free.

[Bushwick Bill]

77. Great post

But, even if we conserve like mad, it may help a little at the personal level. However, it won't mean a hill of beans if a fraction of a percentage of Chinese add a few hundred million combustion engines to the planet. Suburbia and globalization is dead.

[earth mom]

76. Been living close to the edge for years now-we know how to do without

Thankfully, we have a half acre with a well that already has fruit trees. In previous years we've had a nice sized veggie garden. If a depression came, we'd enlarge the garden and try and raise some chickens and get some bees. Maybe we could make a few extra bucks selling some of the eggs and honey. :shrug: The biggest problem-if dh doesn't lose his job and we don't lose the house (!)-would be how dh would get to town (about 5 or 6 miles) to work if gas prices go through the roof or gas is in short supply. We've recently decided that we need some bicycles and will getting some very soon.

If we end up homeless and jobless.... well, a few months ago, I read an excellent book that another DUer recommended called "Into the Forest" by Jean Hegland that was about two sisters caught in a sort of end of civilization scenario. Don't want to give away the ending, but it's a great read for what may happen in all our futures. :scared: