PA, Casey, Santorum: a cautionary tale?

[welshTerrier2]

i'm not from PA and don't claim to know the details of what's going on in the Senate race there ... i do know that i don't like Casey because of his abortion stand and i do know that i don't like the Democratic Party stepping into races too heavily before a primary occurs ... we all want to beat Santorum; the question is whether the Party's elite can force this to happen or whether they should let Democratic voters choose the best candidate ...

the article below makes a very disturbing case against Casey ... unlike my view, which would reject Casey as a candidate because of his views on abortion, the article makes a case against Casey because they think he's going to lose ... i'm not posting this either to support or reject the author's finding; i'm posting it so that the issues he raises can be carefully considered ...

Chuck Pennacchio and another progressive Democrat, Sandals, have fared better against Santorum than Casey has fared according to a recent Zogby poll ... Pennacchio's lead was 4.4% higher than Casey's lead ... those who support Casey are very confident he can win and point to a 10 or 11 point lead Casey currently holds over Santorum ... the article below seeks to raise serious doubts that Casey's lead will hold up, especially among urban blacks in Philly and Pittsburgh ...

The race should be about more than just winning; but it should also be about winning ... the question is, is Casey the right man for the job?

Note: just for the record, i am NOT ENDORSING (or rejecting) the author's conclusion that blacks will vote against Rendell as a punishment for his support of Casey ... i found his arguments and the poll results more persuasive regarding Casey ...

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source: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_rob_kall_060129_opednews_com_2f_zogby_.htm

The poll (of PA voters) came up with some powerful findings which this article will discuss. For starters 85% of Democrats are more likely to support a candidate who supports impeachment.

100% of the African Americans in the poll now believe that the Iraq war was unjustified. Zero percent of the African Americans polled support the appointment of Alito to the Supreme Court. 80.3% oppose it and 19.7 percent are not sure. That helps explain the huge drop in support PA Senatorial candidate Bob Casey sees from African Americans when they learn his positions. How huge?

Casey loses virtually 50% of his African American support (think Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) I was shocked until I checked the poll's issue question demographics and found how strongly the African American Community feels about those two issues. <skip>

Philly and Pittsburgh Blacks, who Rendell must retain, to win, will be choking on their vote for Casey, ready to find a way to punish the Democratic Insiders who betrayed them by fielding Casey. I think they'll abandon Rendell and support Swann in damaging numbers.

[creeksneakers2]

1. You can't count out name recognition though

Issues like these aren't going to play a major role in the outcome.

[welshTerrier2]

2. let's hope so ...

of course, name recognition doesn't explain the Zogby polls results that showed Pennacchio (a household name??) with a 4.4% larger lead over Santorum than Casey has ...

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[creeksneakers2]

4. Pennachio only polls better after voters are given issues

When the same poll just asks for voter preference only by candidate names, it comes out:

Casey 50.5% Santorum 38.7%
Pennacchio 40.3% Santorum 41.3%
Sandals 39.5% Santorum 41.2%

So for the minor candidates to fare better than Casey, those same issues would have to be known to 100% of voters, which is unlikely.

[welshTerrier2]

6. grasping at straws ...

you've highlighted the exact problem the article is pointing out ...

it's January; the Democratic Party and PA's big name Governor are pushing Casey like crazy ... and right now, he's looking OK ...

Pennacchio is new; he's struggling uphill against his own Party's elites; voters don't know either him or the issues ...

what the article is pointing out is that all that is very likely to change ... Santorum's people are going to make damned sure that Dem voters know where Casey stands on the issues ... issues like impeachment and right-wing Supreme Court justices are a big deal to many Democrats ... calling Pennacchio, and even Sandals, "minor Democrats" when they are already matching up very well against Santorum seems more like wishful thinking than reality ...

more than anything, i resent the Party's heavy-handed support for Casey this early in the process when two other candidates are so obviously viable ... "winning" has been the excuse we've been given for supporting someone with Casey's immoral views on freedom of choice ... that excuse is seeming pretty lame given the current polling ...

[AX10]

3. The DSCC needs to reconsider Casey.

[nickshepDEM]

5. Here is a good article explaining why Casey will win in PA.

Casey Homers

The Moose praises Bob Casey.

Middle income social traditionalist voters used to constitute the mainstream of the Democratic Party, particularly in a state like Pennsylvania. Many of these former Democrats are Catholics who are alienated from a party that is perceived as shunning pro-lifers and mocks people of faith. Yet, these folks would be comfortable in a party that embraced these "seamless garment" voters who both are pro-life and pro-universal health care.

Governor Bob Casey was one of the few Democrats in the nineties who was able to maintain the loyalties of these voters. And his son is someone who ably appeals to these estranged Democrats. That is why Rick Santorum genuinely fears Casey as an opponent.

The lefties are now in a rage against Casey for endorsing Alito's nomination. They should take a Xanax and settle down. Since when did a Supreme Court nomination become a litmus test in a party? Could it be because the Judiciary Democrats did such a swell job in persuading the American people that Alito was a threat to the Republic? Probably not. After all, a slew of Republicans voted for Ginsburg and Breyer, and it did not emerge as a test of party loyalty. Russ Feingold bravely voted for John Roberts and that is not evidently held against him.

Casey has a clear tie to Alito because he upheld the abortion related case concerning the law that was advanced by his father. More importantly, the Santorum forces were attempting to pry progressive pro-lifers away from Casey on the issue of judges. Now, Santorum ran into a political brick wall.

Will the Democratic base now abandon Casey because of this move? Probably not - real Democratic voters want to defeat Santorum, above all. But despite all of the claims of the lefty bloggers that they want to defeat Republicans, first and foremost, they are making more difficult for one Democrat who has the sense to appeal to progressive traditionalist voters who once reliably identified with the donkey.

It's refreshing to have a Democratic candidate who can do better in a Knights of Columbus Hall than at a People for the American Way confab.

http://bullmooseblogger.blogspot.com/2006/01/casey-homers.html

[welshTerrier2]

7. right-wing talking points

the article you posted is nothing but a parade of right-wing talking points ...

the part about Ginsburg and the republicans is especially abhorrent (and false) ...

[nickshepDEM]

8. One more thing? What do you mean by...

"Chuck Pennacchio and another progressive Democrat, Sandals, have fared better against Santorum than Casey has fared according to a recent Zogby poll."

The latest Zogby poll did not even poll Pennacchio and Sandals vs Santorum. At least according to this link...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

Every poll conducted in the last 6 months or so has shown Casey blowing Santorum out of the water. Usually by a margin greater than 12%. The smallest lead I have seen is 10%, and in all cases Casey was over 50%.


Ill give me endorsement right here, right now. Want to win in PA? Vote Bob Casey Jr.

[nickshepDEM]

9. Casey vs Santorum POLLING INFO.

http://www.davidwissing.com/polls2006pa.php

You show me a democrat who fairs better than that, and I will kiss your ass.

[welshTerrier2]

10. here you go ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2403736&mesg_id=2403736

[nickshepDEM]

11. First of all... Its ZOGBY.

He's probably the worst pollster in the nation, IMO. No one takes him seriously anymore.

Remember this? This should be a required disclaimer posted at the top of every Zogby Poll. "Election is Kerry's to lose. Kerry 311 EV's - Bush 213 EV's"

Second, its one poll. The link I posted in post #9 shows 10 or so polls with Casey blowing Santorum out of the water.

Third, the poll conducted was one of those 'online' interactive polls, which are extremely flawed IMO, and many others tend to agree.

[welshTerrier2]

12. i hope you read the articles

the OP in this thread and the one from the link i provided in my previous response both link to articles on "OpEd News" ...

in the OP in this thread, i used the phrase "a cautionary tale" followed by a question mark ... i did that because not all will interpret the warning in the same way ...

i truly hope you read both articles in detail and consider the warnings they provide ... if you dismiss the way the poll was conducted, fine ... so be it ... personally, i find Zogby a highly credible polling source ... the articles are looking beyond the mere "top numbers" found in the poll and i think they've undercovered Casey's soft underbelly ... time will tell ...