Awww shit. We have ourselves a race in Virginia. Webb down 10%

[nickshepDEM]

George Allen 51%
James Webb 41%

http://www.fromtheroots.org/story/2006/6/16/111911/772

[ruggerson]

1. good news

10% this far out is very doable.

[Mz Pip]

2. Nobody ever said this would be easy

It should be but people are so entrenched in their "sides" that they will support a moron over someone who might actually be capable of doing a good job.

I think Allen get street creds for running for prez. Never mind that he is a twit. He's running for PREZ!!! Hot damn. He must be good.

Don't give up. Allen needs to be called out for the idiot that he is. Take off the gloves and get down in the gutter with him. I am beginning to believe that this is the only way Dems will win. Claiming the high ground ain't worth diddly squat when someone is shooting at you.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[wildwww2]

15. Lawrence Chamberlin charge down from the high ground at the enemy!

And that is exactly what our Democratic leadership needs to do.
Peace
Wildman
Al Gore is My President

[Mz Pip]

23. Playing nice hasn't worked

The most effective political operative I can name is Karl Rove. THe guy is brilliant in the way he tears apart his opponents and now he is back and ready to roll.

Dems won't know what hit them unless they get their heads out of the clouds and start scrapping and attacking.

A couple of years ago I would not have said this. I would have said to take the high ground, that we are better than them, that our ideas not our attack should win people over. I was delusional back then.

Ideas don't count for much because no one pays much attention to the details. It's all about perceptions. People believe the Repugs are strong because they keep telling everyone that they are.

Keep it simple.
Don't be afraid to get dirty.
Battles aren't won by playing nice.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[LibDemAlways]

21. When The New Republic article came out

last month exposing Allen for the racist asshole he's been for decades, Webb called it hitting "below the belt." That sort of approach is not going to work. The repukes are going to pour vast $$ and effort into hanging on to this seat. Webb won't know what hit him once the mud starts to fly.

His best strategy would be to take on Allen blow for blow - shove his face in his past and make him own it. "Senator Allen, why did you spray racist graffiti on the walls of your suburban Southern California High School?" "Senator Allen, explain to African American voters why you kept a noose in your law office and have had a lifelong,well-documented love affair with the Confederate flag predating your arrival in Virginia as a college student." "Senator Allen, do you ever intend to unseal your divorce records should you run for higher office?" "Senator Allen, your sister wrote a book six years ago in which she paints a very unflattering portrait of you. Were the episodes she recounted about the physical abuse you heaped on your siblings accurate?"

Allen is a racist fraud and phony. He needs to be squashed. I just hope Webb has the stomach for it.

[Catchawave]

3. :D

"VIRGINIA: Jim Webb, coming off Tuesday’s primary win, narrowed George Allen’s lead to just 10 points, 51% - 41% in a new Rasmussen poll. Allen led Webb by 20-points, (50-30) in late April."

A ten point bounce :bounce:

[madfloridian]

6. Thanks for providing the context. Webb up 10 points.

:hi:

[williesgirl]

4. ANYTHING to get rid of that fucker Allen once and for all! I'm broke but

will be donating to Webb's campaign. Voted for Webb in the primary for this reason only.

[spooky3]

31. Me too--sent him a small contrib the day of the primary

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Maybe Webb can bloody Allen and keep him off the GOP ticket in '08

Top or bottom.

I'm more concerned about winning Virginia's 13 electoral votes in '08 than about this senate race, which is second or third tier in terms of a likely pickup.

[williesgirl]

7. We in VA feel differently - we have to PUT UP WITH HIM regardless

of the Presidential run. Rather defeat him now and it should also lessen the chances he'll get anywhere after that.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I would feel the same way if I lived there

But as an outsider, knocking out a GOP senate incumbent in a red state is so unlikely I don't like to get my hopes up. It worked in Arkansas '02 but that's about it, for several cycles.

[alfredo]

20. Does Allen wear a toupee? My wife is convinced he does.

It's important. It speaks about his image of himself. Or it could be a deception. Everything is done for a reason. If he is wearing a toupee, you need to ask why he feels he has to be something other than himself.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Don't know; I'm more of a mustache handicapper

I think mustaches are worth several points to the other side in a major statewide race. Women subconsciously don't vote for men with mustaches, at least that was Jimmy The Greek's theory in '48 Truman/Dewey, and it seems to hold up.

You're the second person ask about Allen wearing a toupee, since he was on Meet The Press. I thought it was natural but his face and speech are so weird I doubt I've ever focused on his hair.

[alfredo]

34. Bush has a weird face and odd speech patterns. Maybe Allen needs

to have God tell him that he is His choice for president.

[LibDemAlways]

27. I went to school with him,

and I'm pretty confident his hair is the real thing. He probably just colors it as it's amazingly brown for a 53 year-old.

[alfredo]

33. Something did seem unnatural about his hair. The uniformity

of color and shade may make it appear like a rug.

[TheCowsCameHome]

9. Maybe the diaper rash on Allen's face will get so bad he won't campaign

[Stinky The Clown]

10. You're not a journo major, are you? You got the wrong lead on your story

From your link: "VIRGINIA: Jim Webb, coming off Tuesday’s primary win, narrowed George Allen’s lead to just 10 points, 51% - 41% in a new Rasmussen poll. Allen led Webb by 20-points, (50-30) in late April."

There's no need for an 'aw shit' when the target of the 'aw shit' just bumped **up** ten points.

[thatsrightimirish]

11. past poll numbers

Rasmussen December: webb:29 Allen:57
February: Webb 37 Allen 49
March: webb 30 Allen 54
Zogby/wsj March: webb 41.7 Allen 48.9
Rasmussen April: webb 30 Allen 50

[BillZBubb]

12. The bad news is that Allen hovers around 50%

That makes Webb's job very difficult==but not impossible. Allen is an idiot, so maybe Webb can make Virginians see that. Of course, if they haven't seen it by now, it might not be possible.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Allen probably needs to implode

Like Bunning did in '04, although that level would be hard to match.

Virginia is trending our way so even a competitive race like this should pay dividends, in terms of registration and voter contact. I'll be interested to see how active Tim Kaine is for Webb.

[Stinky The Clown]

14. I'm even more interested in how selfserving Mark Warner will work for Webb

Warner should have been the candidate if he had the best interest of Virginia and the party at heart. This says *nothing* against Webb, but Warner could have won walking away and in the process destroyed Allen's chances in 08. But no .... Warner had to go for what serves *his* best interest.

If he winds up with our nom for the 08 cycle, I'll vote for him, but I won't be happy about it.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. It would have been idiotic for Warner to attempt the senate race

First of all, he wouldn't have been a cinch. You're still talking about an incumbent in a red state. He's 4/1 to win our nomination right now. In the senate race he might have been a 3/5 or 4/5 favorite, but hardly 1/10 or anything approaching that. The difference wasn't dramatic enough.

Plus, If Warner loses to Allen, he's finished as a presidential hopeful. If he wins, he's stuck in the senate, forced to give up the seat within two years, in fact immediately in practical purposes since campaigning begins in 2007. If Warner loses the nomination, or general election, he can always run to succeed Tim Kaine as Virginia governor in 2009.

2008 is by far Warner's best chance at the presidency. It's an open race, so you're not trying to knock out an incumbent of either party. Warner is in big trouble trying to evict an incumbent since his personality is hardly magnetic. He already failed to knock out incumbent John Warner in the '96 senate race, although the margin was very respectable for a challenger.

But I do agree with our base point; how active will Warner be for Webb? I'm guessing not as much as expected, and certainly not as involved as he was last year for Tim Kaine.

Warner doesn't want to be closely associated with a losing campaign. Go ahead and fault him for that. I think it's great handicapping, same as Warner's avoidance of too many foreign policy specifics so far. He can only get in trouble there. It's like the first round of a major golf tournament; you can't win the event but you can damn sure play your way out of it.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. We're hijacking this thread ....

..... but I can't not make one comment. If what you say is true about his chances in VA for the Senate, then how the hell does he see himself winning on the national stage. And gawd, if he isn't seena s having enough personality to beat Allen, how can we have **any** hope with him on a national ticket?

Anyway, in fairness to the OP, we might wanna make this a separate thread if it bears more discussion.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Warner knows Virginia is vital to the national stage

And he has a huge chance to win Virginia if he's our nominee. The state is trending Democratic in northern Virginia, to the point it's maybe 3-4 points red in 2008. That can easily be overcome by a favorite son atop the national ticket of the minority side.

If Virginia had far fewer electoral votes, or he was from a less populus state, or our base electoral number was quite a bit lower meaning adding Virginia was less meaningful, I don't think Mark Warner would be as kean on his chances in '08. Just my opinion. A theme of his typical speech is expanding the playing field and not limiting ourselves to 16 or 17 states. He may not say it outright, but he means his home state as the key to that expansion. Both sides know Virginia is incredibly important in '08. Frankly, the GOP has very few scenarios to keep the White House if they lose Virginia.

Against Allen for senate, he's running Virginian against Virginian so the +3 to +4 GOP partisanship works in Allen's favor. Admittedly, it's different in statewide races instead of presidential vote. Warner may be more popular than I'm estimating, in relation to Allen and how that race would unfold. My 3/5 or 4/5 is a guess.

The personality aspect is another opinion of mine, that personality doesn't matter as much in an open race as when trying to oust an incumbent. I'm not claiming it's an absolute, but I'm confident enough in the basics that I choose candidates partially using that criteria. Hence, John Edwards for 2004 and Mark Warner in 2008.

[Doctor_J]

18. Doesn't sound like much of a race

:-(

[thatsrightimirish]

22. Warner

He needs to campaign for Webb just like he did for Kaine. If Webb wins that would very much help out Warners chance for a presidential bid.

[LaPera]

25. Only 3.45% voted in Virginia, in the past primary...Republicans wet dream!

3.45% of eligible voters...UNBELIVABLE!

[LibDemAlways]

26. I noticed that, too.

That's voter apathy carried to the extreme. In the CA primary about 25% or so turned out - which was also pathetic, but under 4% - unbelievable.

[Stinky The Clown]

28. Historically ..... pretty typical in VA

[LibDemAlways]

29. Any theories as to why?

Californians are notoriously uninterested in politics, yet a quarter of eligible voters will show up for a primary. Why is Virginia, steeped in so much history and so close to the center of government, so apathetic when it's time to cast a ballot?

[Stinky The Clown]

30. You'll have to ask a knowledgable Virginian

Their general election turnouts are pretty much in line with the national averages. Their primaries are what's low. They also have no requirement for party registration in the primary so anyone can vote in any party's primary. That *may* have something to do with it, but I'm only guessing.

[spooky3]

32. no Sen. primaries since 94--many candidates are unopposed

remember that only NoVA is really close to the center of govt and participation was over 10% there. Most of the rest of VA is a lot like other parts of the country (very much like OH and IN where I lived previously)--not that interested in politics.