What's your gut feeling about the upcoming elections?

[Poiuyt]

And do you see the trend going one way or another. Do you see one or both Houses of Congress changing hands? Let's assume for a minute that the elections will NOT be stolen and that there will be no election fraud. Does that change your thinking? (I still feel that if the polls show one person way out in front, the RNC can't steal it).

[still_one]

1. we will take at least one house

but it has nothing to do with what the Democratic leadership has done the last six years

[graywarrior]

2. Diebold. That's my gut feeling.

But I'm a total pessimist, and paranoid to boot.

[pacalo]

9. I'm an optimist, but my gut feeling is that you're right. Diebold.

[Imagevision]

17. I believe Diebold will take care of November elections, heck,

they need a win as badly as they did in 2004, how can they possibly lose??

[saltpoint]

3. House flips blue. Gain 3-4 seats in the Senate.

Plus a good handful of governor's chairs.

Then it's on to 08 and we win the White House also.

Order blue place mats and champagne glasses now.

[ladjf]

7. What do you have in mind about the rigged elections?

[saltpoint]

36. The most striking thing for me is Rick Santorum's fall. I'm happy to

see it -- don't get me wrong -- I've hated him for years.

But Casey is leading consistently now in the polls in Pennsylvania, and Santorum is having to struggle just to bear up. Santorum has a pile of cash, but Casey is formidable and will be spending a buck or two on this race.

It's going to be extremely difficult to catch up for Santorum.

In California, Schwartzenegger doesn't any longer enjoy the clean slate celebrity status he held against Gray Davis. The polls were right in that race, within distance of their predicted margins, allowing for fluctuations among polls. I expect they'll be right this time also, and I'd like to see Angelides beat the crap out of Arnold.

Democratic energy at the polls has been pretty good, then very good iin 04, and I think it's going to be outstanding in 06 this November.

That's where I stand.

[ladjf]

37. I believe that you are saying that if the Dem majority is large

enough, the rigged elections could be over-ridden. I do agree with that. In 2000 and 2004, the key states of Florida and Ohio were most definitely rigged. But, if the Dem majority had been say seven or eight percentage points, they might have carried the day. I'm just wildly speculating here, however.

[saltpoint]

38. Another interesting possibility is Florida. At one point the Rethugs

felt that Bill Nelson was beatable, but of course Kathryn Harris appears the likely GOP nominee, so not only is Nelson likely to hold the seat, but money that might ordinarily have flowed more freely to the GOP statewide may be slowed considerably, simply because Harris is such a drag on the ticket.

Lackluster candidates like Harris -- well, ok, DISASTROUS in her case -- and a strong pro-Democratic wave of polling leading into the election, may also suppress the Republican vote nation wide. I wouldn't have even considered a shot at the Senate turning, but this might be the year. I'd love to be proven wrong on that one, for sure. We have to hold seats in Minnesota and New Jersey, and then pick up Virginia, Missouri, or another state where Dem candidates are slightly behind right now. It wouldn't bother me one bit to see Webb whomp Cement-Head Allen in Virginia.

Not one bit.

[ladjf]

40. Those seem like reasonable possibilities.

[JHH]

4. The Repuks will steal another one

[Patchuli]

11. Not if we don't settle for it again.

I believe the people can make a difference if we all stand up and refuse to allow it.

[ChipsAhoy]

54. It hasn't worked before.

Remember the cloture vote?

[ClassWarrior]

5. We've got a helluva lotta work ahead of us.

That's my gut feeling. Now let's get going!

NGU.

[youngblue]

6. There's alot of work to be done

Just make sure you're doing your share.

[LA lady]

8. Not good

If you follow state polling not the National polls, it looks like we will gain 3 Senate seats and 6-7 House. Having incumbency is a hard nut to crack. My area is VERY red and the Repuke will be re-elected easily.

[Alpharetta]

10. News commentators are so glib with the Republican talking pts

It just rolls off the tongue. They've had practice. Working for FoxNews is their dream job.

[Totallybushed]

12. I don't

like our chances as much as some people do. Although I don't think they are hopeless by any means. I think we will make some gains, but I don't see gaining control of either HOuse of Congress.

Several reasons. First, the Republicans have a lot of time left to turn things their way. What are the odds, say, that Osama will be brought out of storage.

Second, Too many people are thinking that the elections have been stolen, but too few are doing anything effective about it.

Third, we don't have the media.

Fourth, even if we did, we haven't been able to properly frame our message.

Fifth, "framing" is a crock, anyway. It's weasely and dishonest. What is wrong with just straight up saying what we stand for and what we will do? Why do we need to appeal to the mushy middle? We know what radicals the Republicans are. If the choice is between the right and the left, the "moderates", or as I prefer to call them the "uninformed and unpassionate" will have to choose one or the other, for they will have no place else to go. And all polls show that the voters agree with us.

In short, I feel that our "leaders" are playing to our weaknesses rather than our strengths. But that's just my opinion. Nice if I'm wrong, huh?

[leftofthedial]

13. election fraud

terror

fear

and massive PR and disinformation campaigns

[Lost-in-FL]

14. stolen

[Imagevision]

15. I believe this WWW 3 BS will influence bigtime,

[Skittles]

16. Dems will get more votes but repukes will retain power

same as the last few elections

[Coyote_Bandit]

18. Ours is a very politically polarized nation

If we Dems work hard we may pick up a few seats. Performance is largely irrelevant to idealogues. And the political left and the political right are not yet on speaking terms. Hard to convince anybody to change their mind and vote your way when they completely tune you out. You know?

[Awsi Dooger]

19. We'll gain everywhere

State legislatures as well as House, Senate, Gov. The senate is the highest profile and that may be the ony disappointment. We're much more of a longshot to retake the senate, or even come close, than posters here generally want to believe. Only favored in two pickup opportunities right now, Pennsylvania and Montana.

When I see posts saying we'll take one of the two chambers but not sure which one, it's like saying, well I'm confident Duke will contend for the national championship in football or basketball next year, I'm just not sure which. If we take the senate, the House is coming along for the ride.

This cycle sets up in our favor. Many more House seats have popped up on the competitive list in the past month or so. Even Charlie Cook is acknowledging that in his latest report and he's generally hesitant in that regard. It's just a matter of getting an equal split, or better than that, among the very close races.

[niallmac]

20. Repugs will deflect a lot of Pro Dem sentiment with more fear.

They are the War Party now and just like Big Brother they cannot afford
to be without a war ever again.
I don't know what it will take to make the American public
just say 'No' to 'Fear.'

[Imagevision]

21. Why do any of you think we simply won't be "Diebolded" again??

[Awsi Dooger]

29. I don't think we've ever been Diebolded

Certainly massive low tech suppression and fraud in 2000 and 2004. Georgia 2002 is oft cited as Diebold reversal but funny how the ones who scream that ignore the early exit poll releases that showed Chambliss and Perdue ahead. Here's one link showing Chambliss ahead by 4: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/000507.html

I thought we went by early numbers. Besides, Georgia pre-election state polls historically overstate the Democrat, long before Diebold. Blatant examples in '94, '96 and '00.

If we lost something due to machine, it might have been New Mexico's electoral votes in 2004. Those were push button DREs and the under vote percentage was ridiculous, especially in pro-Kerry areas. The state margin was only 6000 votes so avoiding the under votes could easily have changed the bottom line. This year New Mexico switches to paper.

Don't brand me as pro-Diebold. I'm anti-punch card. The best replacement for that mess is what I prioritize. Optical scan has an excellent history especially if over votes are not allowed. Electronic machines looked like a great idea but not only the fraud issue, the high cost of upkeep has been ridiculous and that trickles down to less money for training the poll workers on how to use the machines.

[natrat]

22. fraud here to stay-we will not pick up either chamber

[Imagevision]

23. By November, the US. will be fighting along-side Isreal bombing Iran...

[Stinky The Clown]

24. Having just read the replies thus far, I'll take a contrarian view

I think we will take back the house and at least get even in the Senate. The races like Webb's in Virginia, are still too far apart to see us winning, but I like the trends, so even the Senate is possible.

I base all this on some serendipity and some gut feelings. I honestly think the electorate is pissed off. And that bodes well for us. Where we fall down, if we do, is in making a solid case for people to vote **for** us rather than against them.

[Sam Odom]

25. Will gain in both Houses but...

Remember!

YOUR congressman is worthless but MINE is doing a good job. This is why NATIONAL polls are skewed.

[AndyTiedye]

26. Like This

[Cookie wookie]

27. I don't have any intuitive feeling about November

yet. Without Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia installed across the country I believe the Dems would have a good chance to take back at least one house.

Because of HAVA (Steal America's Vote Act), electronic voting has been installed across the country. "Of the 26 states that mandate voter verified paper records, only 12 require regular audits" (p. 4, "The Machinery of Democracy: Protecting Elections in an Electronic World", Brennan Center Task Force on Voting System Security, NYU School of Law).

"All three voting systems have sigificant security and reliability vulnerabilities, which pose a real danger to the integrity of national, state, and local elections." (p. 3)

The report evaluates various types of vulnerabilities and the number of accomplices needed. The most likely attack in my opinion after reading the report would be a Trojan Horse targeting the top races on the ticket statewide.

But get this, because it's all important, the report says:

"....we have assumed our attacker would not want to add or subtract more than 10% of the votes for a candidate in any one county (or switch more than 5% from one candidate to another), for fear that a greater change would attract suspicion." p. 23.

With the republican base weakened and what I think is a real possibility that they will not have a great turnout, what the Dems activists must do is work as hard or harder than in the Kerry race to get the vote out. Lose the apathy. I was as depressed and discouraged (maybe more so if we're going to have a contest) about the Kerry loss and what I believe was another stolen election. And I certainly haven't liked the cowardly behavior of Dem leadership.

But we've got to let all that go. Forget the past. It's over. The more people we get out to vote the better chance we have to defeat the machines, if they are set to steal the elections across the country, which I believe they are.

Once we get Dems in, we can work with them to get all the safeguards we need for our voting systems. I support the Holt Bill, but also would like activists to get stronger bills in their states, which they are all working toward as hard as they can.

For those who come to DU but don't work as election integrity activists, I say do it. Get out there and join a group in your state and start working for them. These groups are undermanned. If we'd had Georgians storming the capitol, we would have gotten rid of Diebold, but we didn't because people are inert until they have some great reason to move, and the general public still doesn't really "get it." They have to be educated and inspired to protest. To tell their states that they do not consent. Until we get a real movement going, and as long as people sit back and criticize and tear down or even destroy good activists and groups, we're not going to have some magic hand come out of the sky to save us.

BTW: Attacks on Georgia and Georgia activists have been made, totally ignorant and unwarranted, over the weekend. If the attackers had been on the ground working on the issue, rather than relying on what has amounted in the first 2 years to be less than a dozen activists doing all the leadership and most of the work in GA, then things would have been different. Not might have, would have.

[left is right]

28. I'm divided

OTOH, they can 't afford to lose, for fear of prosecution for fraud/theft/and war crimes; so, by any means necessary they will retain both houses. And, on the other hand, if we manage to take control of one or both houses, we won't be able to lead. If we thought the hounding of a twice-elected President, the labeling as liar of a respected VP/candidate, and the swift-boating of our latest candidate was bad, we haven't seen anything, yet. They will make that look like school girl gossip. In fact, they have preached hate for so long, that it wouldn't be surprising if at least one liberal isn't assassinated.

[zeemike]

30. The Repugs must remain in control of the congress

To prevent investigations into all of the scandals that they have before them.
The Demos will gain seats but not enough to take control, and we will be told by the media that we have a great victory and will win the next time.

[w8liftinglady]

31. I can only speak about my district in Texas..the Christian Right

has hijacked it.Unless the Dems REALLY push the "benevolence" of the Democratic Party,they don't stand a chance.I hope the rest of the country can make up for Texas.

[ChipsAhoy]

32. You don't really want to know my gut instinct. n/t

[Son Of Spy]

33. If we can keep the voting mostly honest..

We will fucking CREAM them!

Yep I've got that old-time religion!

[Son Of Spy]

34. If we can keep the voting mostly honest..

We will fucking CREAM them!

Yep I've got that old-time religion!

[sampsonblk]

35. Only Foreign Policy could win this for us - both houses

Events are changing rapidly. And we would be wise not to underestimate Bush's ability to influence them. I suspect that at this very moment, he and his crackpot friends are trying to figure a way to keep this present Middle East flare-up going, and use it as a way to gain votes.

If our side can present a sensible, strong alternative to Bush's disastrous foreign policy, then I believe we will take both houses. If we can't come up with that, then I expect we will take the House by a tiny margin and gain just a few seats in the Senate.

[Jim Sagle]

39. Thanks to Diebold, the Pugs will make massive GAINS.

The media will say it's because the Dems were negative, weak, divided, pro-gay, and without a plan.

The Dems will be too busy licking Pug ass to say anything.

[blues90]

41. I see hope only if RFK and Pap get their suit unsealed

If not then i can't say , it is really difficult to tell how it will go . The primaries did not have such a good turnout and this may be an indication that does not look good . I don't want people voting and deciding at the polling place .

I don't run into many people talking about it in public and I don't trust the black box voting . well shall see .

[rucky]

42. I want to puke.

Then again, I'm in Ohio.

[AtomicKitten]

43. Election fraud will facilitate a miraculous GOP victory.

It's worked so nicely for them in the past and nobody's going to stop them. Why bother letting those pesky voter decide?

[Totally Committed]

46. I agree...

Unless we fix the machines, this will remain a one-Party country.

TC

[CPMaz]

44. Close the gap in both houses of Congress,

Maybe retake one.

[graywarrior]

45. Knowing that the elections are still going to be controlled by Diebold

and voting anyway, is like knowing smoking causes cancer, but still continuing to smoke. I'm amazed that dem candidates are not making this an issue....a big issue. It's probably the most important issue for 2006. I swear, if the republicans take charge again, I'm done. I go underground.

[primative1]

47. Blatent Fraud will Be Rampant ...

My gut feel is that if you are assuming that the upcoming election will be anything but an excersise in spinning away blatent fraud you are extremly naive.
What would lead you to assume that the party in power that has personaly profitted so enormously and has had so long to institutionalize their grip on power through all means available will somehow now yield to the will of the people they so disrespect?
Guess again. They will only leave at the barrel of a gun.

[spanone]

48. New electronic voting machines here in TN. It WILL be stolen.

I wouldn't assume for a second that the elections will not be stolen.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

49. Gains in both houses...

...but not enough to take control of either. This is assuming that the political situation in November vaguely resembles the situation today (no more terrorist attacks on US soil, no major moves towards victory or defeat in Iraq, no more Katrina-esque disasters horribly mismanaged by the feds)

[ChickMagic]

50. I'm worried that I'll get arrested

We've been using optical scanners at our precinct
which aren't great, but at least there's paper. I
heard that we're going to be required to get the
touchscreen machines. I'm going to fill out a blank
piece of paper with my choices and hand that in.
If they don't take it, I will, one at a time, tump
those machines off the tables.

I doubt I could physically do that, but to the
OP's question, it will be stolen. We may take one
house barely.

[truebrit71]

51. They will be stolen again. The obedient press will tell us this is a

..validation for the pResident's "policies" and that once again the Democrats failed to come up with anything other than negative campaigning and that the only true path to happiness and enlightenment is to switch allegiance to the gop.

Then they start to arrest and "re-programme" Democrats en masse.....

That's my deepest fear.

If we don't take the House this fall we are completely and totally fucked.

And I will be moving back to England whilst I can still get my wife and family out.

[SaveElmer]

52. Gains in both Houses...but not control in either

Three in the Senate (Montana, Pennsylvania, Tennessee)

Seven or Eight in the House...

[windbreeze]

53. I have to ask.....what makes you think

there are going to be midterms???
The current disaster taking place in the ME...could, if manipulated correctly by all concerned...cause a strike here, or some other disaster involving American citizens, that could in turn, cause martial law..cessation of constitutional rights, and elections....
Sorry...just had to say what I've been thinking since this whole thing started....we know * wants to invade Iran...there is NO question about it...so what would it take?...and why haven't the Americans in Lebanon been rescued yet...do they have a part to play?....never underestimate your opponent...the "decider" is capable of anything, as long as he gets his way...and the more worried they become about losing control...the more dangerous they become also...jmo, of course...
windbreeze

[Dr Fate]

55. Democrats are acting just like they always do- so I have no idea.

My gut is we will lose, just b/c most DEMS are still acting like the same spineless poll checkers they were acting like in the last 3 elections we lost. They are still ignoring the base (who has been RIGHT about nearly every thing) and listening to polls & belt-way conventional wisdom (Which has been wrong about nearly every thing).

I look forward to being 100% wrong- maybe they will all brandish their weapons just in time or something. I will stand up in my chair and cheer IF it does.

I predict Rove will come up with all kinds of stuff for the media to repeat and DEMS will be too frightened to get aggressive & call them liars when they do it.

I think the media will kill us and since many top DEMS are too frightened to say a damn thing about media bias, they will get away with it.

[LincolnMcGrath]

56. Well Stated Dr. Fate

:yourock:

[Dr Fate]

57. I wish it was all 100% wrong.

Hopefully it will be.