No question that Andy Hurst has an uphill struggle against Tom Davis, who has parlayed constituent service and his original reputation as a relatively "good government", moderate repub into substantial cross-over strength in a district that is fairly evenly split (or even marginally Democratic), even though Tom has clearly jumped the shark and no longer deserves his reputation as a moderate.
Whether Andy can pull off the upset is a question, but he's making a better run at than anyone has in years (in 2004, Kerry and Bush each got 49% of the vote in the district, while Davis trounced his Democratic opposition by a 60-39 percent margin).
Andy has an ad that he's going to start running on TV that could really give him a boost with those that don't know him and don't know Davis' real record.
You can see the ad at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Kx5ZsURa20