Global Warming for Dummies...

[ddeclue]

I got into it over global warming with a bunch of freepers at freakindiscussion, a freeper blog in Asheville NC and apparently have been banned from posting at this point.

Anyways my final post was in response to people asking what made me "such an expert" on global warming... apparently no proof is ever good enough for them.

So here is my final post to the freepers at freakindiscussion..let's just call it "Global Warming for Dummies"...

Why am I an expert?

BECAUSE as someone who develops test systems I understand data collection and analysis and I understand what a strong statistical correlation between two variables means.

There is a very clear and repeatable correlation between global temperature and partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere based on ice core samples demonstrated in the scientific literature and it is based on 650,000 years of historical data covering the last several ice ages.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/310/5752/1313

An obvious observation from this data is that when CO2 goes up, temperature goes up, when CO2 goes down, temperature goes down. It has been true for the last 650,000 years. Should I expect it to suddenly NOT be true in the future?



The correlation between the bottom graph(isotopes ratios of Hydrogen which in turn correlate to temperature) and the top graph indicating CO2 in ppm by volume is visibly obvious.

The present day is on the left hand side of this graph and each major dip in the graph data indicates an ice age as you move to the right.

Add to the historical correlation between CO2 and global temperature that there is clear evidence that CO2 has risen dramatically in the last 50 years.



From: http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/program_history/keeling_curve_lessons.html

This is the so-called "Keeling Curve" that shows a clearly increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere that any beginning statistics student could plot a nice linear least squares curve through. This graph in combination with the previous graph indicates that we are already above the highest CO2 levels in 650,000 years and that the rate is clearly increasing year over year.

Anyone with any common sense, then, can predict based on the historical record of the last 650,000 years, that as CO2 levels continue to increase so will global temperatures.

The partial pressure of CO2 is a repeatable measureable quantity and there is no other valid explanation for the year over year increase other than human activity in the burning of fossil (carbon) fuels.

Moreover, it has an obvious causal factor, i.e. we are burning these fuels much faster than plants can refix the carbon back into organic compounds.

This year over year rise in CO2 corresponds nicely when compared to the beginning of the industrial age adding another key element of the proof of causality.

At some point we will reach a "tipping point" where a small incremental rise in CO2 will result in a dramatic change in global temperature as non-linear effects begin to occur like the melting of the polar ice which will decrease the average surface reflectivity of the earth and result in dramatically more solar energy being absorbed and converted to heat.

This becomes a "positive feedback" system, as the system gets warmer, more ice melts and the reflectivity decreases resulting in more warming, etc., etc.

This results in a runaway change in the temperature until some new region of stability is reached and such a region may not be favorable to our continued existence on this planet.

Go read about chaos theory and non-linear systems if you'd like to learn more about non-linear phoenomena. I recommend the Gleick book for you as a layman.

Doug De Clue
Orlando, FL

[Champion Jack]

1. kicked for later