Obama and Hillary are within 2 points of each other: Rassmussen

[illinoisprogressive]

Okay, Obamamaniacs time to whoop it up because He's Back!

For the third time in four weeks, a national Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Democratic Primary Voters shows Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama within two points of each other. This week, it’s Clinton 35% Obama 33%. Former Senator John Edwards is in third place with 14% support. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%.

However, the race may not be as close as those numbers suggest. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Democrats, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Among Democrats only, Clinton leads by eight percentage points, 39% to 31% (with Edwards at 15%). That’s little changed from a week ago when Clinton led by eleven among Democrats in the survey.

Obama does better when independents are included because he currently holds a two-to-one advantage over Clinton among those potential voters. Both the number and the preferences of independent voters is more volatile than the preferences of core Democratic voters. Some states have open primaries allowing independents to participate, others allow Democrats only. If the current trends were to continue throughout the Primary season, Clinton would handily win the states allowing only Democrats to vote while Obama would be competitive in others.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[Egnever]

1. and this is exactly why we cant have Hillary

She is quite possibly the only candidate in the field that we could lose with.

Although it wont suprise me a bit if thats who we end up with, last time we got kerry and god knows hes probably the only one that could have lost to Bush.

[disndat]

5. Kerry disappointed

He won and then didn't or wouldn't put up a fight in Ohio as Gore did in Florida in '00. What a crying shame!

[Rydz777]

9. Richardson

I seriously doubt that Richardson has only 3 percent support. I haven't made up my mind yet - it really is very early with a lot more campaigning ahead - but I admire Richardson, great experience and congenial style.

[karynnj]

11. 2004 was deemed a long shot for ANY Democrat in December 2004

Bush had a 60% approval rating - that was pulled down to slightly below 50% during the primaries.

Dean vs Bush was a Bush landslide in January 2004 when it was polled. Kerry was the strongest candidate. With a media that would have caled the Bush side on the SBVT, the terror alerts, and lies about Iraq, Kerry would have won in a landslide.

Consider too, that in September and October, the media covered very little of Kerry's rallies. He had incredible record breaking crowds. The media didn't really show this and replaced Kerry with their talking head saing what Kerry said. This lead people to say that Kerry didn't speak about things that he spoke about every single day.

[jefferson_dem]

2. As expected, Hillary's bounce was but a short-term blip.

GoBama! :applause:

EDIT: Note that Obama's support - 33% - is higher than it's ever been in the Ras poll.

[rinsd]

10. Hillary's polling went up as well. It appears the 2nd tier and Edwards took a hit this week.

[BeyondGeography]

3. Dems are sticking by Clinton; independents are trying to tell us something

as in, please give us an alternative to Hillary.

[illinoisprogressive]

4. And he is the alternative and why Clinton will loose. We need more than just dems to win

[CTLawGuy]

6. its sooo early

no one is paying attention.

hell, in 2004 when we started with Dean in June 2003, it was really freaking early canvassing in NH.

I think when push comes to shove, Dems will make a good decision.

[Egnever]

7. Dems will make a good decision.

I am not so convinced of that as you are. Where would we be now if they had chosen Dean instead of Kerry? A much better place methinks.

I hope for Americas sake that you are right though.

[CTLawGuy]

13. people were blinded by ABB

and so people were just looking for who they thought was "safe". It happened to the Repugs in 1996 as well. All they wanted to do was beat Clinton, so they nominated a mushy moderate they thought could win.

[wyldwolf]

8. Yay! Rasmussen is accurate again this week!

[Forkboy]

27. Live by the polls,die by the polls.

A wiseman once said that.

So did you.

[Colobo]

12. Nice! Go Skinny Dog!

[Bullet1987]

14. I'd really like to know the polling methods of all the polls that show Clinton with these HUGE leads

Odds are, they aren't taking Dems and crossover Republicans into the equation.

[AtomicKitten]

15. gotta love a horse race

:)

[rinsd]

18. We should send Rasmussen flowers.

Because every week he gives us something to bludgeon one another with!

:hi:

[AtomicKitten]

19. polls are like astrology

If they are favorable, we like them; if not, they are meaningless tripe.

And so it goes.

[elizm]

16. Also the young voters...

I don't believe the young voters are polled accurately in these polls as most of them don't have landlines. I think Obama's numbers are way better than being reported BECAUSE Independents can vote in the Democratic primaries in many states AND the young people are going to turn out in large numbers for Obama. January will look a lot different, I believe.

[rinsd]

17. Young people turning out in huge numbers means 15% of the voters in the primary.

The year that the youth vote supposedly came out in droves was 2004 when they accounted for about 17% of the GE voters.

[Colobo]

20. Let's kick this

[SaveElmer]

21. To reiterate...

This poll includes Democrat leaning independents...

From Rasmussen's own comments...

However, the race may not be as close as those numbers suggest. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Democrats, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. Among Democrats only, Clinton leads by eight percentage points, 39% to 31% (with Edwards at 15%). That’s little changed from a week ago when Clinton led by eleven among Democrats in the survey.

[Colobo]

22. Great. It shows the reach Obama has across party lines!

[SaveElmer]

24. Shows that 18 months out...

Independents are notoriously volatile...as Rasmussen himself points out!

[Colobo]

25. I admire your resiliency

You are very good at beating your candidate's drum around here. I'm learning from you.

[SaveElmer]

26. Well thanks...

You are doin a great job on Obama's behalf...

And really, I am a big Obama fan...if he is the nominee I will gladly support him as ardently as I am supporting Hillary now!

I truly believe Hillary would be the best President right now, but didn't want that to obscure the fact that I admire Obama a great deal...

[Colobo]

23. Dupe!