Is Hillary Electable? Memo indicates they are concerned. Polls indicate they should be.

[jefferson_dem]

Poll: Is Hillary Electable?
Posted: Thursday, June 28, 2007 4:58 PM by Mark Murray
Categories: Democrats, Republicans, 2008
From NBC's Mark Murray

Earlier today, Howard Wolfson, the communications director for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said in a memo: "As Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."

But those polls only tell part of the story. According to a new Mason-Dixon survey, given exclusively to NBC/MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers, Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating.

In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates: Giuliani (64%-36%), Fred Thompson (62%-38%), Bloomberg (61%-39%), Obama (60%-40%), Edwards (59%-41%), McCain (58%-42%), Biden (57%-43%), Richardson (57%-43%), Huckabee (56%-44%), and Romney (54%-46%).

Moreover, 39% say they recognize Clinton favorably, while 42% say they recognize her unfavorably. By contrast, every other candidate has a net-positive favorable rating: Giuliani (43%-17%), Obama (36%-21%), McCain (33%-28%), Edwards (32%-28%), Thompson (25%-12%), Romney (24%-20%), Biden (21%-20), Bloomberg (20%-18%), Richardson (19%-15%), and Huckabee (16%-12%).

The poll was taken of 625 likely general election voters from June 23-25, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/28/248165.aspx

[rinsd]

1. Memo indicates concern?

That was a joke by Wolfson for crissakes

[SaveElmer]

2. You are mischaracterizing the memo...

Which was a Second Quarter Report on the Clinton campaign...don't know why you felt the need to do that...

I guess Hillary Detractors have a new poll they can quote, now that previous favorite Rasmussen shows Obama performing worse than Hillary against Repubs, and Edwards' negatives rising into the mid 40's...

Funny how a poll can show that 52% would not consider voting for Hillary, yet in the vast majority of polls, more than that say they would vote for her over Romney...kind of a disconnect there I think...

[jefferson_dem]

3. Do you honestly think they would have even addressed the "E word"

if they weren't concened about public opinion or perceptions regarding her ... electability?

They felt the need to trumpet her positive electability numbers. What does that mean now that more negative ones are on the horizon?

[rinsd]

4. Doing a little bit of mind reading?

"They felt the need to trumpet her positive electability numbers."

Perhaps it was in response to the recent Edwards line of attack that he is the most electable?

"What does that mean now that more negative ones are on the horizon?"

More? Have her favorable/unfavorables changed drastically?

[jefferson_dem]

7. Ok. So they wanted to respond to Edwards attack...

"just because."

Within the past couple days, some Hillary supporters have been celebrating that her negatives aren't as high as some had claimed, relative to the other Dems at least.

"Have her favorable/unfavorables changed drastically?"

I like the way you put that "drastically" qualifier in there. Rasmussen had her at 49 Fav vs 48 Unfav. Now this M-D poll has her at 48 for vs. 52 against. I suspect you are not happy with those numbers.


***

By the way, i see you did away with your Yankees icon. You haven't given up, have you? I have little room to talk. My Braves are in the dumps but still are only 3.5 back of the Mets.

[rinsd]

9. Haven't given up on the Yanks though this week has not been pleasant.

Just wanted to make sure people here were clear on who I support for the nomination.

Your Braves were quite disappointing in interleague ;-)

"Within the past couple days, some Hillary supporters have been celebrating that her negatives aren't as high as some had claimed, relative to the other Dems at least."

Haven't seen that but then again I was out for a couple of days.

"I like the way you put that "drastically" qualifier in there. Rasmussen had her at 49 Fav vs 48 Unfav. Now this M-D poll has her at 48 for vs. 52 against. I suspect you are not happy with those numbers. "

I put drastically because her negatives have been fairly static for the last few months. Am I happy about them? Of course not. But I am enocuraged that she continues to raise a great deal of cash, that she has made progress in head to head matchups and that she has made gains in the early primary states(whther extending her lead or closing in on Edwards for IA).

[SaveElmer]

11. There is a difference...

Between addressing the concerns of others, and actually being concerned themselves...

Since it is a popular meme among certain sectors of the Party that she will have electability problems, they addressed it...doesn't make it a reality

[Bitwit1234]

5. She has just as much chance as Obama

The more electable one is Edwards. If they won't vote for Hillary because she is a woman, who you think Obama would get it being black. There are too many racist and sexist in this country to let either of them win.

[Capn Sunshine]

6. you might be right

except for the Oprah Winfrey factor *

I'm positive that Hillary has too many negatives to win a general. The most negative aspect of all is her berserker field troops and retread campaign staff responsible for losing efforts like the Kerry Campaign.

Now, I've heard wingnuts say they admire Barack Obama for his stands, I've NEVER heard that from one of them about Hillary. Nor do I expect to.

But it indicates to me the charisma factor might put him over.





* she's backed every winning candidate since '92.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

8. That means Oprah, who is now endorsing Obama, supported Bush in 2000 and 2004

No surprise there...

[Josh]

21. I think she supported the Dems -

I think the inference is that both Gore and Kerry won. A lot of people around here believe both elections, not just 2000, were stolen.

[flpoljunkie]

10. The Republicans' nightly prayer...

[snowbear]

19. That cartoon is too funny... look at the Hummers on his PJs and the oil wells on the quilt...

Too flipp'n FUNNY! http://eliteleague.co.uk/forum/images/smilies/lol!.gif

[Arugula Latte]

12. No wonder the Republicans are pushing her. nt

[cascadiance]

13. Perhaps she sees this as the sign beckoning Gore to enter the race...

If in fact she starts to look like she has the Dem nomination locked up, and it looks like she has an uphill climb to win the general election, perhaps that collection of facts would be what solidifies Gore coming into the race, to upset that apple cart that has us headed to disaster one way or the other.

[churchofreality]

14. I think the Obama campaign has infiltrated DU

And I'm frankly sick of all the Hillary bashing.

[sleipnir]

15. You might be right

It's pretty high, now adays.

[Forkboy]

16. LOL...that's like one twin calling the other ugly.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

17. EXACTLY.

All of the "fanboys" of various candidates are doing their fair share of bashing.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

18. And yet, once again, you provide nothing for the basis of your post.

Seems rather convenient. Why should this poll not be considered valid, in your opinion?

[snowbear]

20. You need a REALITY check Mr. Church.

Go check out any of the other large progressive forums --- ANY of them.

There are more Hillary-friendly DU'ers than at any of them!

Then again... we could have one busy Hillary supporter with 26 user names..

Seriously though. If you are sick of Democratic Underground.. why are you here?

[Bucky]

25. Infiltrated? Are you nuts? Jefferson Dem has 4900 posts in DU; you have 276.

Just who is the "infiltrator" and who is the long established DU member? Here's another test to see who might be an "infiltrator" -- JeffersonDem has a little star by his name. That means he puts his money where his mouth is.

Where's yours?
.

[illinoisprogressive]

22. I'm in the 52 percent. Never ever vote for her.

[Bucky]

26. If you won't vote for our nominee, you're not a real Democrat.

Sorry, I don't have a lot of respect for fair weather patriots. Mrs Clinton may be the last Democrat I want to see nominated, but if she is the nominee she'll by our last line of defense from this country's rapid slide into monarchy. If you can't see why any Democrat is tons better than any Republican, you might be on the wrong discussion board. I'd have a lot more respect for both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama if their supporters on DU didn't act like a spoiled bunch of titty babies.

[bling bling]

27. I would never have guessed. You only tell us that 1500 times a day. n/t

[illinoisprogressive]

23. check this out from Daily Kos on Hillary and electability

A presidential win for the Dems in Montana? Probably not--it would take a remarkable Dem landslide to pull that off. But Matt over at Left in the West reports on an interesting M-D poll showing surprising strength for the Dems in some head to head matchups:

McCain and Giuliani poll the best, but McCain looks increasingly unlikely to win the nomination. And Giuliani's numbers will slip as the public as a whole gets a closer look at Mayor Insano. After that, Fred Thompson is someone who could clearly take the state, but both Barack Obama and Bill Richardson are right behind him (who would have thought -- in order to win Montana, the secret strategy is simple, run a
black man or a Latino -- why didn't we think of it before?).

Clinton doesn't fare as well in the head to heads.

[Yukari Yakumo]

24. Other numbers

Rasmussen's assessment:

HRC v Ghoul -- 45% to 46%
HRC v Mitt -- 50% to 41%
HRC v Fred -- 48% to 43%

Obama v Ghoul -- 39% to 51%
Obama v Mitt -- 49% to 37%
Obama v Fred -- 47% to 44%

Ed v Ghoul -- 45% to 45%
Ed v Mitt -- 51% to 33%
Ed v Fred -- 50% to 41%