Romney leads comfortably in IA. Big pack from 2nd-6th separated by 5 points

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Romney 35%
Ghouliani 12%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Tancredo 9%
McCain 7%

=POLL: McLaughlin (R)/Hart (D) Iowa Rep Caucus

A new statewide survey of 500 past Republican caucus attendees or new registrants who say they are likely to attend a Republican presidential caucus in Iowa (conducted 8/20 through 8/21) sponsored by One Vote 08 and conducted by McLaughlin & Associates (R) / Hart Research (D) finds former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (35% to 12%) in a statewide caucus; former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Fred Thompson both trails at 11%, Rep. Tom Tancredo at 9%, Sen. John McCain at 7%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.==

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_mclaughlin_rhart_d_iowa_r.php

This is interesting. Huckabee and Tancredo have risen. Huckabee is understandable due to Ames but Tancredo is a surprise. This is good news. If Romney wins Iowa and Ghouliani and Thompson finish behind Huckabee and Tancredo that would crippled their candidacies. Is that likely? No. I think Huckabee has a solid chance at finishing 2nd or 3rd (we'll see how FT does once he actually enters the race. He should receive an early bounce). How great would it be, though, if Ghouliani finished 6th in Iowa? :rofl:

[saltpoint]

1. It doesn't appear that John McCain has exactly swept Iowa Republicans

off their feet, does it.

On Tancredo's startling rise -- yes -- I'm a bit concerned about it. My guess is that a lot of his support is from the faction of Republicans who want to round up the 12 million or so illegal immigrants and ship them south again. That's a dangerous and unstable faction of the population and I'm sorry to see them (in part) as a factor in Tancredo's rise.

It's nothing to celebrate, Tom Tancredo, celebrate though ye will.

Appreciate this glimpse into the Puke landscape out in Iowa, draft_mario-cuomo. It helps us fix our targets for the 2008 campaign. We need to know what we're up against. Thanks for posting.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

3. McCain tanked in Iowa after the immigration bill debacle

And conversely Tancredo's rise is due to immigration. Right-wingers are obssessed with kicking 12 million people out of the country, even though that is impossible and would wreak great havoc on our economy and society (i.e. what about the legal kids of the illegals?).

Keep in mind Alan Keyes finished 3rd in Iowa in 2000 so Tancredo doing well would not be a shock.

Thank you, OC. :hi: It looks like Giuliani continues to weaken while Romney has consolidated his lead in IA and NH. A 4th, 5th, or 6th in Iowa would kill Ghoul. He could survive 3rd because the bar is so low for him there right now.

[saltpoint]

10. That's a very good read on the Tancredo 9% and McCain's big drop.

As much of a rightwing kook that McCain certainly is, he seems halfway moderate comopared to Tancredo. Tancredo is an ogre.

Agree also with your read on Giuliani. He still leads in most GOP polls (though not in New Hampshire!) and evidently he's not competing in Iowa. If he is, he's not making any inroads. I'm trying to picture the backalley thug Giuliani sloughing through the pig farms in Iowa's rural counties, blathering about ethanol. It's not a very convincing image!

[TwilightGardener]

2. Tancredo is beating McCain. He's only 3 points behind Rudy.

Holy shit, he's wacko, and yet he's almost out of single digits. This would be scary, except that Mittens has such a comfortable lead. Hang on to it, Mittens!

[draft_mario_cuomo]

4. Presumably Tancredo is within the margin of error of Ghouliani

I don't know what the MoE was but I doubt it was lower than 3. Isn't that the minimum?

I am pulling for Multiple Choice Mitt. He is the least electable of the top-tier repukes.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Huckabee Gets Big Bounce in IA, NH and SC

Huckabee Gets Big Bounce in IA, NH and SC

==The American Research Group released new polling results for the 2008 presidential caucus and primary races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to lead in all three states based on support from women. However, the poll is a bit of an outlier since most others -- including a new Time poll -- put John Edwards solidly ahead.

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, while Rudy Giuliani is ahead in South Carolina. However, this biggest news is that Mike Huckabee got a bounce from his second place finish in the recent Ames Straw Poll. Huckabee is now at 17% in Iowa, 12% in New Hampshire, and 11% in South Carolina.==

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/08/30/huckabee_gets_big_bounce_in_ia_nh_and_sc.html

He gained 13 points in Iowa, 8 points in New Hampshire, and 6 points in SC.

[TwilightGardener]

6. Two things will kill the "bounce"--Fred entered the race, and

Huckleberry decided to join Hillary on a national smoking ban. Stupid.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. That may very well happen. Polling suggests FT hurts Ghoul the most nationally

Of course, Huckabee was not a big enough factor then to have FT's impact on him assessed. I think Huckabee will suffer initially from FT entering the race but the key question will be how much staying power does Thompson have. Will he be like Wes Clark in 2003? If so, Huckabee would regain the support he will initially lose to Thompson.

[TwilightGardener]

8. Thompson and Huckabee will be duking it out for the Southern social

conservative vote. If Fred starts off strong, Huckleberry will stall. McCain and Huck, I believe, have the most to lose from Freddie getting in--Rudy and Romney have enough money, organization, and poll numbers to stay competetive for the long haul, no matter how he does.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. I agree they will be fighting for the South like Edwards and Clark in 2004

Good point. Ghoul will still be around regardless of who enters but FT has the potential to kill McCain and Huckabee. Great point on McCain. Thompson has a similar voting record as McCain and could finish McCain off by drawing a lot of votes from him.