Virginia Senator Warner's departure puts GOP in bigger bind: Safe Senate seat now in play

[DeepModem Mom]

CNN: August 31, 2007
Warner's departure puts GOP in bigger bind


Sen. Warner recently suggested that President Bush have some troops home from Iraq by Christmas

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Senator John Warner announced Friday that he will retire after his current term expires and will not run for re-election in 2008. The five term senior senator from Virginia was first elected to his seat in 1978.

The announcement of the 80-year-old Warner’s retirement puts Senate Republicans in a bigger bind as they try to recapture the chamber from the Democrats in next year’s election. Virginia was once a solid red state, but Democrats have won most of the major state wide elections in recent years.

Warner’s seat will definitely be in play next year. Rep. Tom Davis could run for Warner’s seat. The moderate Republican from northern Virginia has long eyed succeeding Warner. But Davis is a moderate Republican and would most likely face serious competition from a conservative candidate. One possibility is former Governor Jim Gilmore, who gave up his bid for the White House last month.

On the Democratic side, party leaders are hoping former Governor Mark Warner (no relation) will run. Warner left office after 2005 with very high favorable ratings. He also considered running for president but never officially jumped into the race. Warner would be considered a very strong candidate and could have a good chance at taking the seat away from the Republicans....

The problem for the GOP is that they will be defending 22 of the 34 seats up for grabs in next year’s election. And Republicans could have trouble holding on to a number of seats. Besides Warner, Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado is also not running for re-election in 2008. Democrats made major gains in Colorado in last year’s election and are eyeing Allard’s seat. And it doesn’t help the Republicans that the Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver next August....At this early date only one Democrat up for re-election next year, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, appears to have a tough fight ahead....

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/08/31/warners-departure-puts-gop-in-bigger-bind/

[MADem]

1. Yep--and maybe another WARNER will run for it....nt

[Joe the Revelator]

2. One can only hope nt

[unhappycamper]

3. Rep. Tom Davis is a moderate?

Really? :shrug:

[onenote]

4. once upon a time, sort of

Davis' reputation as a moderate is based more on his early years in Congress than the positions he has taken in more recent years, after he became part of the repub leadership. In his early years, he received 40/50 percent scores from pro-choice groups, but with his ascension into leadership, and his eye towards a statewide run, he's turned more ardently anti-choice. His scores from other interest groups moved from the more "moderate" range to more extreme RW positions. He still is relatively pro-gun control (his lifetime score from the NRA is "D") which in and of itself makes him more moderate than many repubs. He also is a supporter of voting rights for DC (albeit with the pairing of another vote for Utah). He has retained (although it has slipped in the last two elections) support from constituents who regularly vote Democratic, in part because of his prior reputation, in part because he is very strong on constituent service (protecting the interest of government employees who are a big portion of his district), in part because of relatively weak (in terms of voter name recognition) opponents, and in part because he is a tireless campaigner who makes it a point to appear at numerous local events.

In the end, however, he may have a problem with a statewide run because he has tried to be all things to all people and no one is likely to be that enthusiastic about him.

[usregimechange]

5. i.e mark warner