81% of Democrats Think Clinton Can Win if Nominated

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by her party. That’s up from 75% a month ago and the current total includes an astounding 50% of Democrats who believe she is Very Likely to win it all if nominated. No other candidate—Republican or Democrat—comes close to that figure. A month ago, 41% of Democrats thought Clinton was Very Likely to win.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Democrats think Senator Barack Obama is at least somewhat likely to win the general election if nominated. However, just 23% believe he is Very Likely to do so. A month ago, 69% said that Obama was Somewhat (43%) or Very (26%) Likely to win if nominated. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found that Democratic voters are beginning to see Obama as more politically liberal than Clinton.

Perceptions of electability for former Senator John Edwards have slipped over the past month. Just 60% now say he is at least somewhat likely to win, down from 73% a month ago. Only 17% say he is Very Likely to win, down from 24%.

Just 30% of Democrats think New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson would have a chance of winning if nominated. Only 6% believe he would be Very Likely to win.

Overall, Democrats are far more confident of victory than Republicans.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/most_electable_democratic_candidate


Posted before under a different header but this has a different spin.

[MADem]

1. I believe that. But I also believe that many in the Primary field could win if nominated.

There are a couple who don't have a hope in hell, but most of them could beat any of the GOP in a walk!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Tend To Agree

eom

[BobRossi]

2. Call me a 29%er.

Many Dems won't vote, independants will not vote for her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Think You Mean 19%

100% -81% =19%

But thanks for sharing.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TwilightZone]

33. ...

Wrong place....

[obnoxiousdrunk]

3. No way

81% of DU thinks she can't. I trust DU over all those polls.

[sufrommich]

23. How could you possibly know what

81% of DU thinks?

[grasswire]

5. not me

I believe that too many people would crawl over broken glass to vote against her. There will be no crossover from centrist Republicans like there might be with others. And she won't draw new blocks of voters, such as poor whites in the South who might be drawn to John Edwards.

[aquart]

7. None of which should be a concern in the PRIMARY.

[Peregrine Took]

8. Sorry, I won't be bulldozed into voting for her because I read some fercoctah

poll.

[Clintonista2]

20. I've noticed a trend with you Peregrine Took...

Every topic that has a pro-Hillary theme, has you posting in it saying "STOP BULLYING ME, I WONT VOTE FOR HER!." Nobody is asking you to vote for her. Are you hearing voices?

[jwirr]

9. Hillary can probably win but she will have a harder time because

of past history than the others. I think if the pugs keep putting nails in their own coffin almost any of our candidates could win. That does not mean that we would support them. I for one would like to see a real landslide that carries both the house and senate with it so that we can bring about real change. I do not think she is even close to that possibility.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Bad Info

It dawned on me and I deleted it.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

40. Gore Supporters Are An Intelligent Bunch

I agree completely with what you said.

People are going to be so disgusted with the repubs, that ANY Democrat who runs, will probably win.

But Hillary is going to make it Much, Much closer than anybody realizes. It will be a horserace, as the Corporate Media WHORES want.

[jwirr]

41. I hope so. We need to take back our country and FIX it.

[Carrieyazel]

42. I can't see Hillary winning if the pugs go with Ghouliani. This thing could be over soon.

[Hawkowl]

11. Win?

Do they mean win like President Gore? or Win like President Kerry? IF she is nominated, she will "win" it by a close enough margin to be stolen.

[slick8790]

29. That's my worry.

I'm pretty sure she could win in a fair, free election, but with these machines, I don't know. I'd much prefer someone who could blow the GOP out of the water so badly no amount of fraud could hide it.

[Carrieyazel]

12. Democrats have a history of being politically tone deaf and isolating ourselves in a bubble.

Look at many of the past nominees we've had. I bet Democrats thought they were sure fire winners too. Few of them ended up winning the White House. Indeps and Repukes wouldn't vote for them.

But a lot of this is also NAME ID. If more people knew about Richardson, his numbers would be a lot higher.

We also have a big problem in a general. Indepedents and Republicans vote in these elections too. That's a huge problem for us. How many non-Dems can Hillary capture???

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. From The Same Article

Among all voters, 59% now say that Clinton has a chance of winning the White House if nominated. That’s up from 53% a month ago. Among unaffiliated voters, 55% now believe the former First Lady would have a chance, up from 42% a month ago.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/most_electable_democratic_candidate

[BootinUp]

17. exciting!

[zalinda]

13. Of course they say she can win,

just look how many polls tell us she can. I'm sorry, but I polls are either positive or negative depending on what question is asked and how it is asked.

zalinda

[MethuenProgressive]

26. "they" = Democrats

From the link:

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say that Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by her party.

[zalinda]

45. Yes, Democrats

They are told day in and day out that she is the front runner and can beat all the repubs. I don't even hear Obama's name much anymore, much less the other candidates. So, if the media says she can win, then it must be true. :sarcasm:

zalinda

[DeepModem Mom]

15. K&R

[BootinUp]

16. looks like a little unity developing.

And quite early too, relative to '04. Bodes well for us.

[Sandaasu]

18. I'd say any of them can win

Some have better odds than others, but then it gets down to it, I'd say any of them would be at least likely to win. Even Kucinich could probably do reasonably well right now if he can get in a position to be heard.

[emilyg]

21. K&R

[fooj]

22. Whatever...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Thank You For Kicking My Thread

I appreciate it.

[fooj]

27. No problem.

Guess you missed the Bay Area Straw Poll, eh? Hillary polled 4th place. Ouch.

Just another "positive" kick for ya.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Thank You For Sharing Those Results With Me

I will give them the weight they deserve.

[pointsoflight]

25. Pretty meaningless poll question

How in the world does any individual who is polled have some sort of special insight into what millions upon millions of other people will do with their votes?

That's just a screwy question to even ask.

[MethuenProgressive]

28. That's why it's an "opinion poll" and Rammusen is one of the best pollsters.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Because It's A Probability Sample

And you are right nobody can really know how somebody else will vote but the poll suggests eighty one percent of Democrats think enough other people will vote for Senator Clinton to give her the plurality or majority of votes she needs to become president...


Thar's valuable information, imho...It's an indiect measure of enthusiasm...

[progressoid]

32. 80 %of Americans think the government is hiding knowledge of the existence of extraterrestrial life

http://www.cnn.com/US/9706/15/ufo.poll/

[BootinUp]

34. I'm sure

DU has good representation in that poll too. ;)

[fenriswolf]

35. yeah 81% think she can win

doesnt mean 81% will vote, does not mean 81% like her. It means 81% of democrats believe that she will win either through her campaign tactics, the tactics her backers use or anyother means

[saracat]

36. The same Dems that would nominate Dukakis? And those same Dems that won't bother to vote in the

General? Those Dems?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I Think You Ignored This Part

Among all voters, 59% now say that Clinton has a chance of winning the White House if nominated. That’s up from 53% a month ago. Among unaffiliated voters, 55% now believe the former First Lady would have a chance, up from 42% a month ago.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/most_electable_democratic_candidate


Or at intrade where folks put their money where their mouth is folks think she's about three times more likely to be president than Rudy:

http://www.intrade.com/

[young_at_heart]

37. "I don't think we're ready for a woman president"---heard today in Asheville, NC

I was shopping at a local store today and heard the cashier say this to a customer. I piped in with "Anyone would be better than what we have now" to which she said, "I probably won't vote". I did my best to tell her that she needed to vote to get rid of the current lot.

[Carrieyazel]

43. I was visiting in Ohio this summer, and someone said to me: "can't see a woman winning".

The person was referring to Hillary, hates the war, and told me she voted for Bill Clinton in '96.

If Hillary is the nominee, we are doomed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Two Votes Senator Clinton Won't Be Getting

What will she ever do?

[incapsulated]

39. And they are right.

I predict a win for the democrats and that says as much about the pathetic republican line-up and infighting as it does for our candidates.

[provis99]

46. so 81% of Democrats are delusional

thats all this survey says.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Could You Be More Transparent?

DSB

[Clintonista2]

48. So you agree with Republicans?

Good to know.