Only 4 weeks tilll Iowa and 3 till NH...

[Bush loves Jiang]

It's really coming quickly, and it has me quite excited.

Predictions?

IA: Gephardt or Dean
NH: Dean

Drop-outs:

Gephardt is done if he loses IA.
Kerry is done if (when?) he loses NH.
Dean might think twice if he loses both states.
Other drop-outs based on how the candidates rank below the top 2 or 3.

[mikehiggins]

1. Silly me, I thought Iowa came first. n/t

[Bush loves Jiang]

2. Damn...

You're right...

One site inadvertently listed the NH primary first, but a few others said Iowa was first.

[beyurslf]

3. Dean in a squeaker in IA

Dean with 45% in NH.

Kerry stays in.

I wouldn't look for any candidate to drop out until Feb 3rd primaries are done. Then, I think we could see Gephardt, CMB, Sharpton, Lieberman, Edwards all get out.

Kerry should drop out after the first week of March. Clark and Dean are in for the long haul until one has the nomination sewn up. DK's people keep saying he is staying in no matter what and I think I believe that. He seems tenacious in his efforts.