Will The Non-Dems come out for Obama? Who Decides Iowa?

[KennedyGuy]

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/1/2/94023/57992

Courtesy of Talkleft:

"If the gold standard Des Moines Register poll is right, then a Barack Obama Field of Dreams depends on non-Democrats deciding who should win the Iowa Democratic caucus.

That is a fact, no matter how much Obama supporters do not like to hear it. The rules allow for this so that is that.

Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)

So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus. That is the question for tomorrow night. If they do, Obama wins. If they do not, he does not.

edited to remove a statement that offended a fellow DU'r

[MethuenProgressive]

1. Obama will lose in Iowa if he depends on Democrats alone.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/1/2/94023/57992

Courtesy of Talkleft:

"If the gold standard Des Moines Register poll is right, then a Barack Obama Field of Dreams depends on non-Democrats deciding who should win the Iowa Democratic caucus.

That is a fact, no matter how much Obama supporters do not like to hear it. The rules allow for this so that is that.

Clinton leads among registered Democrats who are likely caucus goers by 6 points in the DMR poll, 33-27. And if the turnout demographic is the same as in 2004, Clinton wins by 31-29. (This explains the discrepancy between the DMR poll and other polls, who are now scramblng to align themselves with the DMR turnout model.)

So it comes down to that - will the non-Dems come to decide the Iowa Democratic caucus. That is the question for tomorrow night. If they do, Obama wins. If they do not, he does not. The Ultimate Test for the Kumbaya Schtick".

[Renew Deal]

4. Obama will lose the General Election if he depends on Democrats alone.

[MethuenProgressive]

7. So start triangulating early, to beat the rush?

How DLC of OB.

[Renew Deal]

17. Do you disagree with me?

You can't tell me I'm wrong.

[MethuenProgressive]

26. You want Republicans voting in Democratic primaries, so they can back their pick in the general?

Democrats should pick the Democratic nominee.

[Renew Deal]

29. Democrats should select the nominee

There's no question about that, but each states laws are different. Iowa lets you register day of. NH encourages you to register independent.

Iowa is such a good test because it encourages electing a candidate that can win the GE.

[surfermaw]

32. Do you really think a Republican will vote for BHO in the General Election

Here in my area all the republicans are for Obama, but not one would vote for him in the General Election, some will tell you they can beat him ,ore easily than they can Edwards and Hillary.

[BeyondGeography]

27. What part if "we need a nominee whose popularity is limited

to pre-registered members of the party" do you not understand?

[BenDavid]

10. Too much stock is being invested in this Iowa caucus. I say

after this election we need to chance the format. Whatever state wants to have their election earlier then so be it.

A good example of this is the rudy campaign. He is in the iowa contest but has not really put forth an effort there. I think rudy has it about right. Iowa does not carry that much weight because he is campaigning nationwide. The media does not run negatives stories about rudy doing this, but they do when it comes to HRC and oh one would believe the world will come to an end if HRC loses in iowa. Iowa is no indicator who will be the party's nominee.... So what if HRC loses iowa. You then have to ask yourself just where will either edwards or obama win next? After n.h. hrc as a nationwide lead in all states except illinois....

I still say by the end of february HRC will have a majority of delegates to be the nominee....

[AtomicKitten]

2. Who decides Iowa? -- Iowans do.

[Renew Deal]

3. NH is the same thing technically.

:shrug:

[DURHAM D]

5. I wonder if a lot of the Independents and Repubs

might now be more invested in what has become a more interesting Republican primary contest.

I think it would be a tough choice - spoiler for the Dems or joining in the process of choosing their Repub candidate.

[KingofNewOrleans]

6. Except they all have to become Democrats

to caucus. So really, it'll be Democrats who decide it. It's just a matter of how many of them will be new Democrats.

New Hampshire is different in that independents can choose which primary to vote in, without changing their registration.

[Sulawesi]

11. Shhh, no facts allowed...

[Lucinda]

12. Yes. But they don't have to stay Dems. And it's an easy switch back afterwards.

NH's way makes more sense to me. :)

[Sulawesi]

14. If people register Dem to vote for Obama, that is a good thing,

how can registering more democrats be bad for the party...

[Lucinda]

30. It's not. But it also doesn't mean they'll stay in for the general if he's not the nominee.

[Renew Deal]

21. More independents vote in NH than any of the early states.

Because most people register indie and then choose which primary to vote for.

[Lucinda]

31. Which works very well in NH. But they are active politically, not just responding to one candidate

My comments are just about people registering to vote for one candidate in the primaries. It's a great thing...but people shouldn't expect that they will necessarily stay Dems, or support a different Dem in the general if their candidate doesnt get the nomination.

People engaged and participating = always a good thing.

[KennedyGuy]

19. wouldn't the independants swing more McCain?

[bunnies]

20. re: NH... Not true.

Once indies choose which primary to vote in, their party registration is changed. But they can switch back to 'undeclared' right at the polling place... after the vote is cast.

[Bitwit1234]

8. No matter what state

and there are quite a few, I don't think other parties should be allowed to cross over and vote. The republicans will do anything to put Obama up as the candidate. They know how to cheat to win, and they only way, the absolute only way they will win the presidency is to have Obama as the Democratic candidate. They know they will have a landslide. Not one southern, or real midwest state will vote for him. That is the truth. I know Obama supporters don't want to believe that. But I also know that they will be stupid as the devil not to face the facts. He won't make it to the presidency. This country won't vote for him.

I like to slam him to make his blind butt supporters mad. But I am facing the facts. This country will not support him for president. He made the mistake of running too soon. bush has made this country a hot bed of dissent. It will take at least 8 years to bring it back to the real US that we all knew and loved.

[frazzled]

16. What is a "real midwest state"?

I am laughing somewhat (make that a lot). I assume you are suggesting two things:

(1) That Illinois, where people voted for him, is not a "real midwest state." (subtext: they's got theirselves a whole lot of Negroes up in Chicago).

(2) That midwesterners are more racist than the rest of the country. I hate to tell you, but I've lived in both the upper and central midwest (Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois) and on the east coast (Boston), and I can tell you that Boston was by far the most racist place I've lived.

If fear of people voting against a black man or a woman is your only reason for rejecting them, then shame on you.

[Sulawesi]

9. Here we go again...

the "Kumbaya Schtick?" Are you not embarrassed to post that? Is the little black sambo next? I am about done with this place.

[KennedyGuy]

15. No..I'm not..I always thought Kumbaya was a song of strength and hope

the only remotly racist stuff I have seen in this thread is the stuff you just posted..
Which, I might add, if I had posted, I would have deserved to attack..
This is the second time today I have seen Obama supporters call someone racist if they disagree even remotly with Obama..
This will NOT work in the General election.

[Sulawesi]

18. It is the blog, not you...but cmon...that is offensive

[KennedyGuy]

22. I have never thought it was offensive..but if it offended any I will apoligize and edit

that was certainly not my intent..

[Sulawesi]

23. i know that, I just get sick of people citing these angry blogs as facts, and then, to see that...

Let me be clear, "Kumbaya my lord" is not an offensive song, but for someone to suggest that Obama is employing a "Kumbaya Schtick" is a cynical accusation that Obama is using his race in a manipulative way.

As someone who supports the idea of an African American president, I know that he has an uphill battle against racism in the GE...

[KennedyGuy]

24. I can understand..and edited..

[Sulawesi]

28. cheers, now on to the substance of the OP....yours, S

[Sulawesi]

25. I have an idea, let me go to the blog and gripe, and leave you alone, cheers!

[Lucinda]

13. There is an interesting post in the OP link about those who aren't allowed to participate

because of the way the caucus is held... issues I hadn't thought much about before. Interesting read.

[TeamJordan23]

33. No Dem candidate, including your Hillary, can win a general election without Independent voters. nm

[jenmito]

34. You don't like the rules? Try to change them. They have these rules for a reason...

and Independents and Repubs. are Americans, too. What do you have against more than just Dems. liking a Dem.? First some Obama opponents tried to claim there's no way Obama will get any more support from Repubs. than the others, and then when the polls say otherwise, they try to say it shouldn't BE that way. What's wrong with winning more than 50.1% of the vote?