Herman Munster's honest assesment of Hillary's prospects and campaign strategy going forward

[Herman Munster]

OK, no more spinning and bullshit from me. This is what I think will happen.

New Hampshire. Gone.

South Carolina. Gone.

Nevada. If the Culinary Workers endorse Obama, Gone.

The Clinton machine will go into full out panic mode after losing New Hampshire. Expect some "pivot" to the media knowing they have heard the voters and will enact big changes to turn around the sinking Titanic. If they are smart, they will fire Mark Penn on the spot and bring in fresh blood. That will show they are serious about changing the direction and message of their campaign. They are already starting to be more authentic. Hillary is changing to much shorter stump speeches and answering lots and lots of questions at every turn.

They will then try to emulate Mondale's 1984 strategy of grinding down Gary Hart by calling into question Obama's experience at every turn. Where's the beef?

Hillary is who she is. She is running on experience and this agent of change business isn't working. She has to differentiate herself with Obama rather than clearly pander to his supporters. It's transparent and not working. Hillary has to be Hillary and let the voters make their judgments. They will hope for some blowback when people really think about whether they are ready to nominate a black man with a muslim surname with 2 years national political experience for the nomination against a McCain or Giuliani. They will keep pounding on the experience issue, again, and again. The Feb. 5th states are very different than Iowa and New Hampshire. There are many closed primaries. No indies allowed. No changing registration on the day of the election. Democrats will be selecting the nominee. No independents and republicans to muck things up. Obama won democrats by only 1% over Hillary in Iowa. I expect Hillary to win democrats over Obama in New Hampshire, with all of Obama's margin of victory to come from independents and republicans who switched registration.

Will it work? 50/50. I'm not convinced. I'm coming to the realization that Hillary may simply not be the candidate for the times. Too much baggage from the 1990's. That unlike 1984 and Hart, Obama is a very well funded insurgent with almost a cult following among the younger generation. The primaries are much more compressed this time and the media is downright hostile to Hillary with a lot of mysogonistic undertones.

Anyway, I thought people might be interested in refreshing their memories on the 1984 race. There are a lot of similarities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1984

Colorado Senator Gary Hart was a more serious threat to Mondale, and after winning several early primaries it looked as if he might take the nomination away from Mondale. Hart criticized Mondale as an "old-fashioned" New Deal Democrat who symbolized "failed policies" of the past. Hart positioned himself as a younger, fresher, and more moderate Democrat who could appeal to younger voters. He emerged as a formidable candidate, winning the key New Hampshire, Ohio, and California primaries as well as several others, especially in the West. However, Hart couldn't overcome Mondale's financial and organizational advantages, especially among labor union leaders in the Midwest and industrial Northeast.

Hart was also badly hurt when Mondale, in a televised debate with Hart during the primaries, used a popular television commercial slogan to ridicule Hart's vague "New Ideas" platform. Turning to Hart on camera, Mondale told Hart that whenever he heard Hart talk about his "New Ideas", he was reminded of the Wendy's fast-food slogan "Where's the beef?". The remark drew loud laughter and applause from the viewing audience and caught Hart off-guard. Hart never fully recovered from Mondale's charge that his "New Ideas" were shallow and lacking in specifics. Earlier in the same Democratic primary debate in which Walter Mondale referred to the Wendy's fast food tagline "Where's the beef?" in criticizing Gary Hart's policies, Hart committed a serious faux pas that largely went underreported. Asked what he would do if an unidentified airplane flew over the Iron Curtain from a Warsaw Pact nation, Hart replied that he'd send up a United States Air Force plane up and instruct them to determine whether or not it was an enemy plane by looking in the cockpit window to see if the pilots were wearing uniforms.

Fellow candidate John Glenn, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot, replied that this was physically impossible. At a roundtable debate between the three remaining Democratic candidates moderated by Phil Donahue, Mondale and Hart got in such a heated argument over the issue of U.S. policy in Central America that Jesse Jackson had to tap his water glass on the table to get them to simmer down. Mondale gradually pulled away from Hart in the delegate count, and by the time the Democratic Convention started in San Francisco Mondale had more than enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

[Egnever]

1. I like you much better when you are being honest.

Good post!

[truedelphi]

2. The George Bush Presidency blew the concept of asking for experience out of the water

Talking heads are already saying that maybe it is not that an important an item.
And qualifying their saying that because "Bush became President with only his governorship of Texas."

[ElizabethDC]

3. Don't resign yourself just yet, Herman

We still have a ways to go.

[Herman Munster]

15. Don't worry I'm not

I would never count out the Clinton's. They have been to hell and back so many times that I would never think of doing that. But I am a realist and pragmatist at heart and putting one's head in the sand when the winds of change are blowing at you at hurricane force does you no good.

It's turning into a much tougher fight than I thought it would be for Hillary. That most supporters thought it would be. And in the end, it may be the best thing for her that she really has to fight hard for this.

[ElizabethDC]

21. Admittedly, things don't look as good for her as they once did, however

we're only at the beginning of this thing. There was always a decent chance that she wasn't going to win Iowa. However, I do think that it's important to stay as positive as possible. I feel like I can't let the negativity get to me yet, not only to preserve my own sanity, but also because I really feel that Hillary will be the best president of the bunch, and because that chance still exists, it's important to fight for it.

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. thank you for this

it's refreshingly honest and much appreciated.

I feel bad for Hillary, I really do.

She has no blueprint on how to beat a guy like Obama. It's like trying to stop Shaquille O'Neal in basketball. You can have the best gameplan, the best strategy and positioning and fundamentals, but when you go up against someone who's just so physically imposing, such a freak of nature, there really is no blueprint on how to stop them. You kinda just hope they have an off-night.

So far, Obama has had no off-nights. And he might not, until the race is long over.

[hedgehog]

5. My memeory is playing tricks on me. I would have sworn that Reagan used that line

on Mondale, but Wiki backs your version!


Setting that aside, in 1984 there ewas no web, only the MSM. DAy to day reports on the campiagns were very limited. In addition, you yourself note the disparity in the money race that year.

[GenDem]

7. Reagan used "There you go again"

when he debated Jimmy Carter.

[NoBorders]

6. Refreshing

Thanks. Nice to see the wizard behind the curtain as it were.

You're right, HRC will have to make a major strategy change if she lose NH and SC, which is a distinct possibilty now.

OK, I don't remember the 1984 election that well--I thought the 'Monkey Business' is what really sealed Hart's fate?

[Herman Munster]

8. Monkey Business was the 1988 campaign

[GalleryGod]

19. MB was 1988. Mondale was coming off 8 years as a sitting VP in 1984.

I worked for Hart in N.H. and later in Pa. (Philly). 1984 had the "First Super Tuesday", too.
Gary was a better Campaign Mgr. for McGovern than candidate,and had a womanizing problem in 1984.
He also had changed his birth name from Hartpence to Hart that the MSM had a field day. Rapid response was 8 years away with Carville-Begala and their War Room.

Where's the Beef ( Wendy's Clara Peller) was a pre-loaded line that Hart should've hit out of the ballpark but, didn't. Go figure. He listened too much to Warren Beatty back then,also.

Sorry for the Poli History lecture...that's what I do Mon-Fri.,Though.

[NoBorders]

44. I appreciate it actually

thanks. I don't remember the 84 election very well; didn't realize Hart ran then too.

[Honeycombe8]

9. Hillary IS using the "Where's the Beef" attack...but it's now "Where's the Substance?" or...

"Where are the specifics?" Same thing.

Changing her message was not a good idea. She can't be both the voice of the last 15 years, the voice of experience, AND be an "agent of change." She just can't be.

I think she should have stayed on message, stressing her experience, trying to sound more mature, etc. That's her strength.

But it's too late. She has already changed her message to include the "change" theme, which I don't think can work for her. Unless she can morph it back into her original message.

Although I support Obama and am one of the ones who wants to see change - real change - a change of faces - I wouldn't count the Clintons out yet. They are experienced politicians and know how to win.

[GalleryGod]

10. Nice piece,Herman

Bobby= 3 years as A.G. + 3 years as N.Y. Senator before declaring for President, AFTER, the N.H. Primary.



I'm sure it's all before your time,but, perspective and political history count,too.


BTW..Have you seen Michelle (Princeton + Harvard Law School) Obama on the Stump yet?

[featherman]

11. Interesting but Mondale was on a suicide mission in '84

Going up against incumbent Reagan. At this point, with Bush having likely damaged the GOP brand name beyond near term salvation, it is likely the Democratic Primaries are selecting the next President.

I like JE, I do think that Edwards can't compete through Super Tuesday due to money restrictions by accepting Federal Funding.

I would certainly support HRC in the GE and she has been polling well out here in CA and in NY so there's that.

I think we'll have a likely nominee on Feb 6. Barring a major gaffe or scandal, it looks like that will be Obama. Ready or not, he's caught the wave and seems to be creating more of a movement than a mere campaign. I think that's significant.

Just my professional opinion.

[GalleryGod]

22. Right. Front End loaded Primaries= Finis. on February 6th,2008

18 Primaries!

[Quixote1818]

12. I thought it was an affair that took down Gary Hart?

[robbedvoter]

57. It was. Monkey Business. I now wonder who set that one up - it was a set up

and it looks like a BFEE job. (Lee Atwater was in charge then)

[msongs]

13. "with a muslim surname"? people with his name HAVE to be muslim? don't think so nt

[Herman Munster]

24. his absentee father was muslim

and that should have absolutely no barring on him in an ideal utopia world. But we live in the United States of America. Expect it to be an issue one way or another before all is said and done.

[GalleryGod]

36. I agree.

I watched Michelle (Princeton + Harvard Law) give a flawless stump speech for 55 minutes tonight, on C-SPAN. If the Repugs "Hated Hillary" they shall "fear & loathe" Michelle Obama.

[Sparkly]

14. Interesting analysis!

I think NH and SC are Obama's now, too.

I also agree that it's not working for her to talk about "change" (and the word itself is growing tiresome, at least to me). When she talks about her experience though, she needs to be specific -- even naming a few things quickly -- because so many people know her only as Bill Clinton's wife. (And they love to hate her.)

Does she have other people out on the stump for her, going to different places than where she is?

She won't win on charisma, personality, or inspiring speeches. I think they know that. But it seems there's a backlash when her camp goes negative (again, people love to hate her so when other campaigns go negative on her, it's effective). Her strengths are that she's smart and tough as nails.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. I wish "likeability" weren't such a big factor, because I just think it's not important -- I want to see some real duking it out on issues and knowledge, philosophy and beliefs. But it is that way, and I'm not sure she can overcome it enough to make this a real contest.

[NCarolinawoman]

47. I think she needs to use the word KNOWLEDGEABLE ....

about how things work. How to get things done. Yep, "knowledgeable" is the word.

"Change" is getting old old old. Now Edwards is even co-opting it.

[Sparkly]

53. Today I started singing...

"Change change chaaaaange, Change of foooools..." (Chain of Fools. No I'm not saying the Democrats are fools, just came to mind!)

I think the speeches about "change" are way too hyperbolic anyway, considering what the three of them are proposing. It's just not THAT radical. The rhetoric of being brave and believing and taking on this great challenge and forging a great change would make sense to me with Dennis Kucinich's policy proposals, but not theirs.

(But I guess it works!)

[Perky]

16. ok okay You don't need your own board.

I emailed SKinner after he locked my thraed...saying that it was meant to be funny....and to make everyone including you laugh. I think we allneed to breath everyonce in a while.

I hope you did...:beer: :grouphug:

[City Lights]

17. Nice post, Herman.

A big :thumbsup: to you for your honesty.

Whatever happens, we're all in this together.

[Adelante]

18. Good job, Herman

I think she still takes Nevada.

[GalleryGod]

26. My buddy,who teaches at UNLV, says it's closing every day,though.

I just think that "the door has closed" on HRC. I'll have a better feel when my students start pouring in to class,though. A feel. A touch,if you will.

[Adelante]

35. Oh, that's interesting - thanks nt

[HysteryDiagnosis]

20. An intelligent candidate if elected can surround himself/herself with

all the experience that exists in D.C. and then some. An intelligent president who listens to the military leaders rather than running over them cuz "he tried to kill my daddy" will be a huge improvement over what we now have. May the one with the least baggage and ties to powerbrokers take the prize.

[Quixote1818]

23. Maybe Hillary should ask Obama: Where's the beef? In the next debate. nt

[GalleryGod]

If she quotes it EXACT-LY...she's 1984 not 2008.

[Quixote1818]

33. I know, I was just joking. nt

[GalleryGod]

46. Gotcha!

Nice guy,our Keith. Took this @ Phillies Spring Training 2006

[Bolo Boffin]

25. One person's "experience" is another person's "history."

History, Hillary's got.

[GalleryGod]

28. Though...

These guys lost to that whippersnapper,JFK!

[Occam Bandage]

27. Honestly, I'm pleasantly surprised. Excellent analysis.

[GalleryGod]

30. Give it up for Herman! Move over on the couch, Mr. Rather!

[Herman Munster]

32. I rabble rouse on DU for fun

But at the end of the day, I have to be honest and call it like I see it.

[Occam Bandage]

34. Ah, the Internet.

Can't tell who's serious, who's playing amateur propagandist, and who's in it for the lulz.

[GalleryGod]

45. I suffered through the Great Primary Flame Wars of '04 and don't want

to revisit that place.

[GalleryGod]

38. At least I don't have to "grade" these posts, Herman LOL

You're a good man; and men and women of good will can disagree.

[featherman]

29. The Culinary Workers are the whole ball game in NV caucuses

So whoever gets that on Wednesday is the winner there

[GalleryGod]

31. You are correct, Featheman.

Succinct & Correct.

My friend & hero...Hal Moore.

[ClericJohnPreston]

41. Where is Edwards in your equation?

Inquiring minds want to know. If Hillary marginalizes herself as you project could happen, what does that do to the Edwards campaign?

[Herman Munster]

49. Edwards will place third in NH

and if he has any sense drop out and endorse Obama shortly afterward and go out on a high note rather than further marginalize himself. He does not have the financial resources to compete in the big states against Clinton and Obama in a game where money and organization is everything. I'd like to be wrong as Edwards is my second choice. But if this thread is about honesty, well I'm being honest.

Obviously, if Edwards finishes a surprise second place, he stays in but a Hillary implosion on that magnitude is unlikely. NH is a primary. Not a caucus. There are no rural quirks of the caucus system or second-choices to prop Edwards up.

[GalleryGod]

54. Reportedly-and i use that Term loosely in 2008, he has a $$$'s crunch,too

Thursday night @ an Obama Caucas Party in Southern N.J....I watched $11,000 go out on-line, in about 90 minutes.

[Karmadillo]

37. Thoughtful post and a little bit painful to read. Hope the next month

has a few campaign altering surprises in store. Penn's exit would be a nice start.

[Yael]

39. Excellent post. Well written!

[journalist3072]

40. What is up with this defeatist attitude?

And please tell me you haven't given in to those ultra-left wing/ ultra-right wing talking points about Sen. Clinton supposedly being too "divisive." If she really were that divisive, would she have been able to work on military issues with Lindsey Graham, or health care with Bill Frist?

The only reason people think they are in love with Obama is because his record has not been examined. He's been given a free ride by the media.

ON TO VICTORY, SEN. CLINTON!

[Herman Munster]

60. nothing would please me more than to see Hillary pull off an upset on Tuesday

[GalleryGod]

62. Sorry. Looks like polls are "tracking" for Barrack

Being older than most DUers ...I'm just trying to add some "perspective and context" to our discussions,here. My "Snark Gun" is holstered.

[karynnj]

42. Nice analysis

This was actually a bit like what she did in the debate - where she said she already did create change. (I didn't like her example - S-CHIP, as her main contributions were getting Bill Clinton on board - which was necessary - but shouldn't have been and joining many other First Ladies in speaking for it. ) Obama actually got healthcare legislation passed in Ilinois. Here Kennedy and Hatch did, the House did. It was not HRC's plan - it was modeled after a MA plan passed over Weld's veto. The original bill was Kerry/Kennedy. But in discussing the 1996 MA Senate race, Bill Clinton did not mention this as a reason to support Kerry - in a book published the month before the convention - still in editing when Kerry won the nomination. So, it clearly was not an important issue to the Clintons.

If Obama has the personality to gather advice from good people and the intelligence to process conflicting views - both of which seem to be the case - he should be able to avoid the Mondale analogy. I remember only vaguely the Central American policy argument - but I bet history might be on Hart's side. Our actions in the 1980s were WRONG. Supporting the Contras was wrong. The School of Americas was wrong. Losing does not make you wrong, just as winning does not make you right.

Frankly, if it's Mondale vs Hart again - I think we should go with the charismatic Hart rather than the experienced Mondale.

[Sparkly]

48. That's really the question, I think.

"The charismatic Hart" or "the experienced Mondale."

That's what it's come down to for me. But I just don't know the answer.

[gateley]

43. Did Mark Penn work on Bill's campaign? If not, why is Hillary using him?

And also if not, why didn't she use the same person Bill did? (trying to understand strategy, here.) Thanks.

[GalleryGod]

50. Unfortunately-Big Dawg didn't agree with his appointment.

I asked HRC @ The N.J. Democratic State Convention, in Atlantic City, on September 7th...if Begala-Carville were at least "Of Counsel" on her campaign and she told me, "Oh, Heavens No!"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. He Worked On Clinton's 96 Campaign

The strategy of linking Dole to Gingrich was masterful...In fact it really got under Dole's skin...

[GalleryGod]

55. Here's some pics for you! Re: your Avatar!

[Sulawesi]

52. Excellent post, two questions...

1) Given what happened to Mondale in the GE, do you think there was any regret about who they nominated? I think so, as Gary Hart was the immediate front runner for 1988. When Reagan gave his speech at the 1976 convention, many thought they had nominated the wrong guy.

2) If so many of your previous posts were spinning and BS. My question is why?

[GalleryGod]

56. From the inside: Gary would've run a different campaign than Fritz.

I think the RNC would've found the "women in his closet" though.

[Herman Munster]

59. to answer your questions

I think after such a devastating loss as Mondale had in 1984, you'd have to be a fool not to second guess the decision. We lost 49 states. Devastating.



Since I've been here, many of the posts about Hillary on this board have been indistinguishable from the crap you hear on right wing radio or conservative websites. I felt she needed some defending and it was fun tweaking the Hillary haters.

[FlyingSquirrel]

58. Perhaps she would seem less distant and inaccessible if she answered

These 10 questions, as every other Democratic nominee except herself and Richardson have answered. (Obama did skip 3 of them, however.)

http://www.10questions.com/

[pettypace]

61. He's not an insurgent

President Barack H. Obama - it may look like a strong likelihood after Tuesday.

[BeyondGeography]

63. "Change we can believe in" poses a much bigger challenge than "New ideas"

especially now that everyone, even Hillary at long last, understands that this election is about bringing fundamental change to Washington. The Obama narrative is easy to understand, it ties into who he is as a person and as a politician and he has brought a big share of the public into alignment with his vision.

It's Obama's game now in a way that Gary Hart never came close to tasting. It's his to lose, no matter what Hillary does.

[Arugula Latte]

64. Who are you and what have you done with Herman Munster?

;)