A 10% margin in NH might translate to a 60% margin in SC (Hillary's problem)

[Perky]

Hillary might do better to get out after NH if she loses by 10% or more...because of how the stars align.


I think AA support is going to desert her inand that is 50% of the voting Dems in SC. I also think there is going to be a hurge AA turnout to put him "over the top"

Next I think Hillary's support in the South has always been tenuous to begin with and with the Big MO probably even more so. White Dems will vote for Obama in part because the is not Hollary and in part because he is not "jesse jackson". The obvious undercurrent her is that the state that birthed the Confederacy would be positioned to put a black man in the driver's seat for the highest office in the land. That is an unimaginable, albeit inadequate, genuflection towards reconciliation that should not be lost on anyone.


Obama could concievably get 70% given these factors and Edwards weak polling there.

Because a drubbing by a Black man in the south a week prior to Super Tuesday would almost invariably winds up very ugly on Super Tuesday. Her only recourse would be to go very negative and I don;t think that would play well with anyone as it runs the risk of appearing bigoted, arrogant and quixotic.

[Perky]

1. kicking for subject chang

[Catch22Dem]

2. White dems will vote for Obama because of who he's NOT?

Surely there are other reasons. I'm white, and neither of those reasons apply to me. I'd vote for him because he's a damn good candidate.

[Perky]

3. I meant as opposed to Clinton as their other option.

Some obviously will vote for him because of his qualities...but there is a segment in the south who are very dismissive of those they percieve of unjusifiably bringing up jim crow and slavery at the drop of the hat.


Obama is so vastly different than there perceived notion of black leadership in this country rightly and wrongly.

[Joe the Revelator]

4. Sounds good to me.

nt

[gorekerrydreamticket]

5. Not likely....

Bill Clinton didn't quit after coming in 2nd in NH. Neither did he quit when he was impeached. It is not in their nature to quit. They will continue as long as they can get other people to fund the campaign.

[Perky]

6. The money is going to dry up.

[BringBigDogBack]

7. Hillary lost the black vote...

when she accused Obama of 'false hope'. :hi:

[K Gardner]

8. There ya go. Simple as that. Bingo.