Initial Quick & Dirty Analysis of NH Democratic Primary Vote By Voting Method

[mhatrw]

I will post corrections and additional analysis tomorrow. If anyone sees any errors in my work, please chime in.

According to CNN's results, there are 237 total different voting municipalities in New Hampshire. According the the NH SOS, 111 municipalities -- including all 50 of the most populous municipalities -- use an Accuvote ballot which is counted by a Diebold (now known as "Premier") opscan machine. According to the NH SOS, all other NH municipalities (126 of them if I can believe CNN's posted results) count all votes by hand.

109 of the 111 Diebold opscan municipalities have currently have 100% results posted on CNN. 66 of these municipalities went Clinton's way while 43 went to Obama. Interestingly, Clinton did not receive less than 26% of the vote in any of these municipalities, and Clinton received less than 30% of the vote in just 4 of these 109 municipalities. Clinton also received more votes than Obama in 20 of the 28 of these municipalities with the highest Democratic primary voting totals.

Currently, 117 of the 126 New Hampshire municipalities that count votes by hand have 100% results posted on CNN. Clinton received more votes than Obama in just 36 of these 117 municipalities, Clinton received more than 10 votes more than Obama in just 26 of these 117 municipalities, and Clinton received more than 20 votes more than Obama in just 18 of these 117 municipalities.

[annabanana]

1. Thank you. This is the kind of statistical breakdown that needs to

be done, the most telling.

If this is the most important indicator (rather than age or gender or union affiliation or "values"(ugh)or any of the rest of the bobblehead crap they're talking about) then it becomes even clearer what and who is driving the country..

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. "Counties"?

New Hampshire has 10 counties. Should you be using a different word - 'constituency', 'region', something like that?

[mhatrw]

3. Thanks! You are 100% correct.

I changed it to municipalities.

[rucky]

4. Before jumping to conclusions...

consider WHERE the machines are: urban areas? wealthy areas? more populated areas? do the demographics of Dover and Manchester match the demographics for Hillary in the exit polls?

[mhatrw]

5. I'm not jumping to conclusions. But I don't trust the exit polls, either.

They are now routinely adjusted to match the reported results.

45 of the 51 municipalities in which Clinton received 30% of less of the vote were hand counted municipalities and only 6 were op scan counted municipalities. That seems like it must be significant, but it may or may not be when the relative size of these municipalities is taken into account. As I said in my initial post, the analysis is quick and dirty. I don't suggest anyone jumping to any conclusions at all at this point.

[mod mom]

6. Here is a list by town of the results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_county/NH_Page_0108.html?SITE=NHCONELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Where did you find which towns/muncipalities hand counted vs used op scan?

[mod mom]

7. Couple this with the fact that even Hillary's own polling had Obama winning big:

Going into tonight, there was not a single poll showing Hillary with a lead. According to reports, Obama's internal polling had him ahead by 11%. Hillary's polling had Obama ahead by 14%.


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/9/3472/39073/962/433291

[mhatrw]

8. New, Improved Analysis

Total Votes: 282065 Total Machine Counted Votes: 224881 Total Hand Counted Votes: 57184

Percentage of Total Counted Votes:

39.17% Clinton 110,478
36.43% Obama 102,765
16.93% Edwards 47,755
04.60% Richardson 12,977
01.37% Other 3,867
01.36% Kucinich 3,826
00.14% Gravel 397

Percentage of Machine Counted Votes:

40.28% Clinton 90,571
35.85% Obama 80,614
16.78% Edwards 37,743
04.45% Richardson 9,781
01.37% Other 3,082
01.23% Kucinich 2,773
00.14% Gravel 317

Percentage of Hand Counted Votes:


38.73% Obama 22,151
34.81% Clinton 19,907
17.51% Edwards 10,012
05.59% Richardson 3,196
01.84% Kucinich 1,053
01.37% Other 785
00.14% Gravel 80

Percentage of Machine Counted Vote - Percentage of Hand Counted Vote

05.46% Clinton
00.00% Gravel
00.00% Other
-0.60% Kucinich
-0.72% Edwards
-1.24% Richardson
-2.89% Obama

That's an 8.35% difference between hand counted & machine counted ballots when comparing Clinton to Obama.

[mod mom]

9. Thank you. Where did you find which munis used HCPB v op scan?

[mhatrw]

10. Here.

http://www.sos.nh.gov/voting%20machines2006.htm