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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:29 AM Original message |
New, Improved Analysis of NH Democratic Primary Results By Voting Method. |
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Uben (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:33 AM Response to Original message |
1. So, what does this imply? nt |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:34 AM Response to Original message |
2. They're also from different counties. The machine counted votes are |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:41 AM Response to Reply #2 |
6. Yes, and sparsely populated rural areas are well known for being less racist than urban areas. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:08 AM Response to Reply #6 |
14. WTF??? Are you vacationing from reality, or what? |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:21 AM Response to Reply #14 |
20. I was making fun of the so-called Bradley effect explanation that |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:41 AM Response to Reply #20 |
30. MSNBC dug Clinton's grave the day before. They don't get much right. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:37 PM Response to Reply #30 |
54. I'm not saying that there are no reasonable explanations for the discrepancy. |
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Skinner ADMIN (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:36 AM Response to Original message |
3. This does not prove anything. |
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Uben (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:41 AM Response to Reply #3 |
7. Thanks |
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mod mom (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:47 AM Response to Reply #3 |
8. This needs to be examined, regardless. When you see GOP candidates and Edwards' |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:10 AM Response to Reply #8 |
15. The results match the exit polls, though. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:23 AM Response to Reply #15 |
21. The exit polls are being tuned to the results. They learned from 2004. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:31 AM Response to Reply #21 |
23. ... ahhhh .... a CONSPIRACY theory~!!! Yeah, THAT's the ticket! |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:01 AM Response to Reply #23 |
24. It's not a conspiracy. It's SOP. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:17 AM Response to Reply #24 |
25. Now you're really making me laugh. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:21 AM Response to Reply #25 |
27. Show me one publicly published exit poll since 2004 that didn't match the election results. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:34 AM Response to Reply #27 |
29. I got some bad news for you--the reason they match is because they're ACCURATE. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:35 PM Response to Reply #29 |
40. It's proven. It's admitted. It's SOP. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:46 PM Response to Reply #40 |
57. Your cite is about the cockup of 04. You are suggesting, falsely, that |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:58 PM Response to Reply #57 |
61. I have no dog in this fight, MADem. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:35 PM Response to Reply #27 |
39. where were you on election night 2006? |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:41 PM Response to Reply #39 |
42. But the only reason we even know about that is because some people |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:44 PM Response to Reply #42 |
56. what is your point? |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:00 PM Response to Reply #56 |
62. In this case, I did not see the exit poll data online until the race was called. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:15 PM Response to Reply #62 |
63. false premise, correct conclusion |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:52 PM Response to Reply #63 |
69. Agreed. I misunderstood your correction. |
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OnTheOtherHand (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:59 PM Response to Reply #69 |
72. OK, are we on the same 'page' now? |
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John Q. Citizen (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jan-11-08 12:28 AM Response to Reply #24 |
120. In fact, nobody published exit polls that didn't match the official result in 2004, remember? |
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Two Americas (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:28 PM Response to Reply #23 |
80. serious issue |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:37 PM Response to Reply #80 |
90. Why didn't anyone wonder about those results that aren't even KEPT in Iowa? |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:10 AM Response to Reply #90 |
93. Maybe b/c Iowa is a ***caucus*** and thereby transparent? |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:17 AM Response to Reply #93 |
98. No, it isn't transparent. There is no repository of "the numbers" on the D side. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:20 AM Response to Reply #98 |
100. It was filmed on TV, in the open, with every vote witnessed and monitored |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:21 AM Response to Reply #100 |
101. EVERY single caucus location? I don't THINK so. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 03:46 AM Response to Reply #101 |
109. It's called videotape |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:52 PM Response to Reply #109 |
114. That's not what you said, though. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 03:16 PM Response to Reply #114 |
115. "TV" means "TV medium" not "10 o'clock news" MADem, do we need to go consulting Webster's now? |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 03:24 PM Response to Reply #115 |
116. No, it does not. TV means the thing that is hooked up to an antennae, cable or satellite |
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Two Americas (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:17 PM Response to Reply #90 |
112. you must be kidding |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 03:26 PM Response to Reply #112 |
117. Yeah? Look up VOXEO and get back to me. |
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Two Americas (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 04:56 PM Response to Reply #117 |
119. not sure what you are talking about |
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mod mom (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:47 PM Response to Reply #21 |
58. IF you were going to steal an election, you would learn that this must be done. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:50 AM Response to Reply #3 |
9. Sure, or it could well be showing that the voting machines are rigged. |
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Skinner ADMIN (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:53 AM Response to Reply #9 |
11. You have to prove something because the burden of proof is on you. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:58 AM Response to Reply #11 |
12. Where did I make any claims like that? |
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Skinner ADMIN (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:03 AM Response to Reply #12 |
13. Cute. (nt) |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:15 AM Response to Reply #13 |
18. Look, I don't like not being sure of results. |
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rinsd (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:36 PM Response to Reply #18 |
41. Hey stickdog! Did you give up on your HPV crusade? |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:58 AM Response to Reply #13 |
33. Cute? He makes a very reasonable response and that's how |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:24 PM Response to Reply #33 |
53. I actually editted my response while Skinner was posting. |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:41 PM Response to Reply #53 |
55. Thanks, sorry Skinner |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:24 PM Response to Reply #33 |
89. The guy OWNS this site...he can respond however he wants. We're guests in his house. NT |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:12 AM Response to Reply #12 |
16. You threw a racial stink bomb in post six. That's more than just posting data. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:18 AM Response to Reply #16 |
19. All I was doing was making fun of the so-called Bradley effect explanation. |
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MADem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:25 AM Response to Reply #19 |
22. It sure didn't smell that way from here. nt |
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IsItJustMe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 10:13 AM Response to Reply #12 |
17. It would be so easy to hand count sample, extrapolate, and then compare it to a machine count to see |
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JackRiddler (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 05:33 PM Response to Reply #11 |
85. Well then, you should support the only means of proving or disproving anything. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 04:45 PM Response to Reply #9 |
118. It would seem that the burden of proof should be on the vote-counting systems |
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harun (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:47 PM Response to Reply #3 |
59. I too am curious to see the demographics data but one cannot |
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mirrera (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 06:03 PM Response to Reply #3 |
86. My sister-in-law is in a real rural area and she said it was Obama fever everywhere. n/t |
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IamyourTVandIownyou (446 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:29 AM Response to Reply #3 |
103. Obama won the college grad vote |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:17 PM Response to Reply #103 |
111. They live in towns that use opscan technology. n/t |
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ayeshahaqqiqa (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:37 AM Response to Original message |
4. It implies that I vote early in my primary |
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goldcanyonaz (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:39 AM Response to Original message |
5. The ABC crowd is out in full force this morning. Saboteurs. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 09:52 AM Response to Reply #5 |
10. I'm not ABC. I'm ABBB. Anything But Black Box. n/t |
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Roland99 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:19 AM Response to Original message |
26. More Obama supporters voted early? |
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Kip Humphrey (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:23 AM Response to Original message |
28. mhatrw, thanks for posting the numbers. Why are DUers attacking the messenger? We need a |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:18 PM Response to Reply #28 |
36. Because it's fucking complete nonsense |
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Kip Humphrey (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:43 PM Response to Reply #36 |
43. Thanks, HughMORON, for clearing that up! |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:00 PM Response to Reply #43 |
47. No problem |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:44 PM Response to Reply #36 |
44. I accept the result. Why can't you accept verifying the result? |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:43 AM Response to Original message |
31. This is garbage. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:01 PM Response to Reply #31 |
48. The difference was over 8%. If the statewide election results matched the |
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Zynx (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:18 PM Response to Reply #48 |
51. The rural and urban areas of NH vote very differently. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:48 PM Response to Reply #51 |
60. Again, you are presupposing that the 2004 machine count was accurate. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:13 AM Response to Reply #51 |
94. Oh really? You mean, Obama has the "NH farm vote" locked up? |
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JackRiddler (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 05:23 PM Response to Reply #31 |
84. So, you know. |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 11:53 AM Response to Original message |
32. This is important information. It may not prove anything but it |
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ProudDad (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:14 PM Response to Original message |
34. The Deibold fix was in! |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:17 PM Response to Original message |
35. Totally meaningless since Hillay won the higher population areas that use machines |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:46 PM Response to Reply #35 |
45. Only if you presuppose the validity of the machine count. |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:59 PM Response to Reply #45 |
46. ok |
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suston96 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:24 PM Response to Original message |
37. It's been already pointed out that your analysis is statistically flawed... |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 12:33 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. A paper trail is meaningless unless someone counts the paper. nt. |
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suston96 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:06 PM Response to Reply #38 |
50. Paper trail meaningless.....Then count it. Tell the Obama campaign to demand a recount. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:19 PM Response to Reply #50 |
52. For what? To gain a single delegate at the expense of looking like a sore loser? |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 06:05 AM Response to Reply #52 |
110. Right, that's the problem |
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truckin (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:21 PM Response to Reply #50 |
64. I sent this email to Kucinich asking him to request a recount. |
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Bread and Circus (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 01:02 PM Response to Original message |
49. I don't believe in a rigged election here... but that is just kind of scary. |
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vee (155 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:23 PM Response to Original message |
65. Compare the data |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:26 PM Response to Original message |
66. This is nonsense and proves nothing. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:59 PM Response to Reply #66 |
71. I'm not trying to prove anything. |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:05 PM Response to Reply #71 |
75. Please see my post below |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:16 AM Response to Reply #66 |
97. It raises legitimate questions about validity, and that |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:36 PM Response to Original message |
67. Here's a list of NH municipalities that use machines |
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vee (155 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:51 PM Response to Reply #67 |
68. Then the level |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 02:54 PM Response to Reply #68 |
70. Those intent on pushing this theory have made clear |
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vee (155 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:02 PM Response to Reply #70 |
73. If the exit polls are |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:12 PM Response to Reply #73 |
78. Unfortunately, we are not privvy to any raw exit poll data, and |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:08 PM Response to Reply #70 |
76. Exit polls that are pegged to election results cannot be used to confirm said election results. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:05 PM Response to Reply #67 |
74. If you want to look at this anecdotally ... |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:11 PM Response to Reply #74 |
77. . |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:27 PM Response to Reply #77 |
79. You are misinterpreting my stance here. |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 03:32 PM Response to Reply #79 |
81. And I gave you several examples (among many others) of hand-counted tallies |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 04:30 PM Response to Reply #81 |
82. Yes, there are several reasonable legitimate explanations. |
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Maven (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 04:40 PM Response to Reply #82 |
83. Considering that quite a few of those municipalities have 200 total Dem voters or less |
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ORDagnabbit (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 07:40 PM Response to Reply #67 |
88. easy to understand chart |
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sam kane (326 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jan-09-08 06:47 PM Response to Original message |
87. Thanks, this is impressive work, and many appreciate it. n/t |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:04 AM Response to Original message |
91. kick. n/t |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:09 AM Response to Original message |
92. More evidence that there really was something fishy about |
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EVDebs (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:15 AM Response to Original message |
95. 517,226 total votes out of 850,836 registered voters = 61% turnout |
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Occam Bandage (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:15 AM Response to Original message |
96. This proves nothing, as they're from different districts. Nice try, though. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:19 AM Response to Reply #96 |
99. And why, pray tell, would those paper ballot-using districts mysteriously |
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Occam Bandage (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:23 AM Response to Reply #99 |
102. Actually, Clinton won cities, and Obama did better in rural areas, according to the exit poll. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:40 AM Response to Reply #102 |
104. But this is exactly the question, there was no such rural/urban split in Iowa |
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Occam Bandage (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:43 AM Response to Reply #104 |
105. That's because the rural New Hampshire voter is completely different |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 01:55 AM Response to Reply #105 |
106. Why was the machine count Dem/Rep split the EXACT same as the |
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Occam Bandage (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:04 AM Response to Reply #106 |
107. Rural NH folks aren't just "more likely to vote Obama," they did vote Obama. |
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mhatrw (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:29 PM Response to Reply #107 |
113. Exit polls are ADJUSTED to match the actual returns. |
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Muddy Waters Guitar (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jan-10-08 02:49 AM Response to Original message |
108. DKos has been blogging about this, more inconsistencies noted |
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DU AdBot (1000+ posts) | Wed May 08th 2024, 06:33 PM Response to Original message |
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