After being down by 25-34% in recent polls, Obama now trails Clinton by 12% in New Jersey (poll)

[antiimperialist]

Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama has shrunk by half in New Jersey, or by 1/3 depending on which poll you look at.
The 5 previous polls from other firms, before this new Monmouth I'm posting found Clinton ahead by: 25%, 34%, 31%, 26%(Real Clear Politics).

It's on.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newjersey/ny-bc-nj--presidentialpolit0115jan15,0,7597756.story

[skipos]

1. Good news for Obama. NJ will be tough. nt

[adabfree]

3. New Jerseyan here...and I've made up my mind

I'm voting for Obama!!!!  Yep.  I'm in.

[Nedsdag]

7. Another New Jerseyan here as well.

GObama!

[karynnj]

17. Me too

[Kahuna]

21. Me too! As a rule we never get to participate in the primaries.

I'm really looking forward to this. And, welcome to DU!!! :hi:

[mckeown1128]

2. Gobama!!! Kick and Rec nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. That's Why Prudent People Average Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_democratic_primary-246.html

Unless you believe he closed the gap by thirteen points between Thursday and Saturday...

[karynnj]

18. Unfortunately, I agree

But, at least some part of it might be real. I am not sure what % of NJ Democrats are black, but the shifts in SC among blacks were huge. I think some worried about experience and on the wall might have been nudged over by Kerry.

[aquart]

5. So his "racist" ploy worked.

Ain't hardball politics fun.

[karynnj]

19. Or the Clinton's ploy backfired

I don't get how Obama managed to get both Clintons to say what they did. (I don't think the MLK comment racist, but I know people who were very offended.

[Kahuna]

20. How? NJ is mostly white. nt

[David Zephyr]

6. Americans are tired of the Clintons. Bill's involvement hurt Hillary. She's done.

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Ipse Dixit

~

[goldcanyonaz]

8. 12 percent is a huge number, and this poll is recent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. If You Click On My Link You Will See That The Other Poll Taken In The Same Time Period Has Him Down

Twenty Five Points...

Folks get sloppy with the facts around here...

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Thanks DSB.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Your Welcome

I'm killing time before I go see The Bucket List at 5:10...

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Why are your facts any better then the OP's facts

While some people may get sloppy with the facts, you get awfully selective.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Because There Were Two Polls That Came Out Roughly The Same Time And He Ignored The Unfavorable One

But, hey if you think Obama closed a twenty five point gap to twelve in New Jeresy From Thursday to Saturday while the gap was increasing everywhere else there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion,ergo:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nj/new_jersey_democratic_primary-246.html

[calteacherguy]

23. None of these things are "winner take all"

Even if he's close, he could end up getting the same number of delegates in NJ, for example.

[suston96]

14. Oh, my....here is another one.....

Research 2000 for The Bergen Record Date: 1/9-10

New Jersey
Added: 1/10/08
Est. MoE = 4.9%

Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 23%
John Edwards 11%
Bill Richardson 2%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Mike Gravel 1%
Unsure 13%

Looking for my calculator. I ran out of fingers and toes.........

[suston96]

16. And here is another average.......

http://www.pollster.com/08-NJ-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

See the picture....see the bouncing little balls.....Clinton ahead by 28%

[antiimperialist]

22. Averages are useless in this case because NJ is not polled often

If you clump polls that 1 month apart together and average them, you are not going to get a picture that reflect current voter preference. The ideal would be to average polls that are recent, and most NJ polls are not.

[book_worm]

24. By Super Tuesday I predict it will be neck and neck in NJ