Easiest Way to Put the "electability" Argument...

[scheming daemons]

Among people who will vote for a Democrat in November no matter what (i.e. "died-in-the-wool" Democrats), Kerry wins big time.

Among people who may vote for Bush or may vote for a Democrat, Edwards wins hands down.

In other words, Kerry's votes are

100% ABBers + <30% indies + <10% GOPers

and Edwards' votes are

100% ABBers + ~50% indies + 10-20% GOPers



If the GE was held with ONLY registered Democrats allowed to vote, Kerry would be the #1 choice by far. But it is not. We can't beat Bush without getting a significant portion of indies and something greater than 10% of Repugs. Kerry has no chance at getting a majority of Indies... he just doesn't.

He's winning among those voters who skew left already... and those people (US!) would vote for a wet sock over Bush. We need to appeal to the vast middle who don't hate Bush with the passion that we do.

Edwards appeals to them more.

Those of you in the March 2nd states... if electability is meaningful to you, you have to think about NOVEMBER electability among ALL voters... not Feb/March electability among Dems. Don't screw this up by nominating a Northeastern liberal who has nothing but a slim chance of success in November. Nothing wrong with Northeastern liberals (I'm married to one), but there ain't enough of us to win a national election. Not with Kerry as our candidate.

[MurikanDemocrat]

1. Got anything to back that up? Sources? Links? Data?

That's not how I remember what little data I've seen here or on television.

[arewethereyet]

4. look at all the exit poll data provided

its plain and consistant. And Kerry looked foolish when he tried to say 'mee too' when Edwards brought this up at one of the debates.

I believe you can find it on CNN election results section. Its gotten airplay at each primary.

[MurikanDemocrat]

7. No, I'm not going to go looking for it.

The poster made a claim and needs to back it up him/herself.

[arewethereyet]

9. suit yourself, its not news anymore and I thought you wanted to know

silly me

[bornskeptic]

13. Have you looked at the exit poll data?

True, Edwards did better among independents in Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, but I think we'll win Wisconsin and lose South Carolina and Oklahoma no matter who is nominated. Edwards only beat Kerry 32-31 among independents in Tennessee, while Kerry did 9 points better in Virginia and Missouri, and 27 points in Arizona. Those are all states which could be in play. Kerry also beat Edwards by 30 points in Delaware, 24 in New Hampshire, and 9 in Iowa among independents. Furthermore, in every national poll including Bush/Kerry and Bush/Edwards matchups, Kerry has done better than Edwards.

http://www8.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/AZ/index.html

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[Old and In the Way]

6. Fascinating analysis, eh?

Picking percentages out of the air to support your candidate....cool.

What I've seen in the open primaries are Republicans who want to derail Kerry by voting for Edwards. Other than that, I see no reason why idies or Republicans would vote Kerry over Edwards or vice-versa in the GE. Those that are fed up with Bush will vote the Democrat who is running against Bush, period. The marginal Indie/Republican voters who might only Kerry or only Edwards would be a wash.

[MurikanDemocrat]

12. Yes, and I notice he never came back to support his argument either

Just dropped this little sugar plum and left.

[John_H]

2. Data? Or should we just take your word for it?

You're not basing your speculation on the fact that a bunch of Rethugs are voting Edwards in open primaries are you?

[leyton]

3. And yet Kerry beats Bush by ten points or more in polls.

Where is that margin coming from?

[arewethereyet]

5. you don't honestly think that will continue do you ?

when Bush starts spending a little money later this week the tide will turn. It always does.

[Old and In the Way]

8. No, I expect it to grow.

As more people get serious in evaluating the choice between Bush and Kerry (or Edwards), I think the people will vote for a change in America's leadership. Nothing I see will make people grow their support of Bush at this point in his Presidency*.

BBV notwithstanding.

[boxster]

10. Always? Yeah, this has happened plenty of times before, hmm?

You must be aware of some precedent that none of the rest of us know about. As far as I know, Kerry and Bush have never faced each other in a presidential race before. Nice try, though.

Money isn't everything. Just ask Howard Dean.

[Nicholas_J]

11. Correct:

All the national polls that have Kerry in the lead give date that shows the exact opposite. That Kerry has the greatest amount of support of any of the other democratic candidates of independents.


In all of the races in which Edwards and Kerry have already competed, a greater percentage of independents supported Kerry over Edwards.

In the only state where Edwards camp close to Kerry, Wisconsin, it was largely Republican who made the differnce fror Edwards, and not independents.

The national polls which place Kerry in the lead over Bush are not polls of Democrats only, but polls of Democrats. Republican, and Independents. These polls have Kerry beating Bush. Not in a primary environment. But in a General Election environment.

The latest National Poll:

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=546 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: , or someone else?" Names rotated

.

2/24-27/04 2/12-15/04 .

% % .

Kerry 57 53 .

Edwards 18 7 .

Sharpton 4 4 .

Kucinich 1 1 .

Other (vol.) 8 12 .

Don't know 12 15

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Polling Report General Election:

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).

.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"

George
W. Bush Democrat Can't Say
Until
Chosen
(vol.) None/
Won't
Vote (vol.) Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/24-27/04 43 48 5 2 2
2/12-15/04 42 47 6 0 5
1/12-15/04 43 45 7 1 4
12/21-22/03 49 40 6 1 4
.

"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were , the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for or George W. Bush?"

.

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Won't
Vote (vol.) Depends
(vol.) Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/24-27/04 46 47 2 1 4
2/12-15/04 43 48 1 3 5
.

George
W. Bush John
Edwards Won't
Vote (vol.) Depends
(vol.) Don't
Know
% % % % %
2/24-27/04
45 45 2 3 5
2/12-15/04 50 41 1 3

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

The Democratic Primary Poll indicates that it is questioning likely democratic voters.

The General Election Poll indicates it is a simply poll of registered voters.

[zulchzulu]

14. That's funny. Being 1-19 is usually a sign of non-electibility

All those dumb voters voting for Kerry. This makes your whole theory kind of silly. Should we start over?