I count 1,472 delegate up for Grabs on Super Tuesday

[Perky]

I look at the landscape and say at this moment in time they will be split 810/652 (55% for Clinton) owing largely to the fact that you are competing at the Congressional District level rather than the state level.

Obama proabbly gets a bump coming out of SC...He will get a bigger bump if Efwards comes in second.


I think Obama will kick butt in the South (AL. AR, GA, TN) base largely on a huge win in SC of about 50%

I think He will win Illinois

I think He will win Missouri

Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado he will get around 45%

He Should lose NY, NJ and CT

I have no idea how Caucus states will go, hough I have a sense that Obama supporters are probably more fired up in states like Kansas.

CA ans MA will be closer then people think.


What do you think?

[HeraldSquare212]

1. Seems reasonable. thanks for doing that

I'm afraid I'd hurt my head if I tried to match polls to states to congressional districts, etc.

[Clintonista2]

2. I think that you need to stop posting here

After posting that filth earlier today.

[Perky]

5. I publically apologized . What more do you want?

[Clintonista2]

16. Frankly, you should have been tombed

Sexists shouldn't be allowed on DU.

[Colobo]

6. Perky is one of the good guys.

Everyone makes a mistake.

[frogcycle]

3. i think that unless

you are running an office pool, this is a waste of time

[Auntie Bush]

4. I think it's a wild/educated GUESS and it's just a little better than mine or anyone else's.

But keep trying...you may be on to something...or maybe not.......

[sandnsea]

7. He'll do well in plains states

That's already proven by the vote in rural NV and IA. I think there's the possibility of an upset in CA. It's only 35% Latino. Don't forget what they did to Gray Davis and Angelides. He has really proven to have tenacity and guts. I'm really impressed with him and his campaign. I don't know how they do this without flipping out on a daily basis.

[Perky]

9. He crafts the right attack on the Clinton Oligarchy... he could run the table in later primaries.

There is a message that ought to resonate. I just have not figured out if the tone should be funny or angry.

[sandnsea]

13. That radio ad is pretty good

She'll say anything and change nothing. He should have done five of them with different examples of her lies. It takes an awful lot to counter a lie once it gets going. HE should be personall funny though, he doesn't do mean very well.

[Perky]

14. There is a difference between mean and angry.

Of couse a slew of endorsements would be a nice way to offset as well

[Perky]

18. It now occurs to me that Obama does not need to attack if Edwards finishes second in

South Carolina....It would suit his interest to go after to them as a pair... Pullo white voters away from Clinton is really his only chance.

[LiberalFighter]

8. Best you can do is at the state level

But delegates are not apportioned at the state level.

In addition, did you check each state for their delegate selection process?

[Perky]

10. I wish there was polling data at the District level.

[Blue_In_AK]

11. Is there another candidate in this race? I forget. n/t

[zulchzulu]

12. The race will continue to Wisconsin on Feb. 19th

Obama will get the nomination there.

[Yukari Yakumo]

15. Laughable

AL, GA, and TN may go Obama's way. IL will go Obama's way.

AR has fond memories of Clinton. It'll go her way.
NY, CA, and NJ will solidly go to Clinton.
AR and NM have huge Latino pop.s. And NM is a caucus. They'll probably go to Clinton.
UT is the whitest state in the union and the reddest. It'll go to Clinton.
CO has a Latino pop comparible to NV, and it too is a caucus. It'll probably go to Clinton.

Here are the remaining wild cards:
Other caucuses: AK, ID, KS, MN, & ND
Other primaries: CT, DE, MA, MO, OK, Dems. Abroad, & Amer. Samoa

[Blue_In_AK]

17. My guess is Hillary will NOT do well in Alaska

People kind of spit her name out whenever she's mentioned here, almost like a swear word. I know Obama and Edwards both have support, so who comes out on top is anybody's guess. I'm looking forward to 2/5 as I am a caucus virgin. :blush:

[Perky]

20. Have you seen the CA numbers recently?

[suston96]

19. Sounds like Obama is being picked to win in SC at the same levels as was predicted in NH.....

I'll buy that.

But it's really about delegates anyway. Winning states doen't count. It's the delegates, eh?

[Perky]

21. PV signals momentum. Delegates are currency.

[bpeale]

22. New Mexico is having an actual caucus this year NOT A PRIMARY