Rasmussen California Poll:Clinton-43%, Obama-40%- Dead heat

[Tropics_Dude83]

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida’s Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California.

The survey found Edwards with 9% of the vote while 4% said they would vote for some other candidate and another 4% were not sure.

Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party’s liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.

Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.

[KittyWampus]

1. Yup, Clinton is bleeding support. nationwide.

[agdlp]

16. Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women, and 27 %among Hispanic voters

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida’s Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California.

The survey found Edwards with 9% of the vote while 4% said they would vote for some other candidate and another 4% were not sure.

Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party’s liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.

Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.

Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.

Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of California’s Democratic Primary Voters, Clinton by 79%.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the state’s voters were certain they had settled on their final choice. That meant nearly a third could still change their mind, a figure that grew when Edwards left the race.

Forty-six percent (46%) said the top voting issue is the economy while 29% mentioned the War in Iraq. Clinton led by fifteen among those who view the economy as the highest priority. Obama led by eight among those who view the War as the top voting issue.

A Rasmussen Reports analysis of the Democratic race notes that “The numbers still favor Clinton. But, as every sports fan knows, sometimes the numbers don’t matter. Sometimes things just fall into place for an upset. More often than not, the underdog comes up a bit short—but not always.”

Clinton continues to hold a modest lead over Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary

-----------------

A close race, but I think it depends on the early votes and who turn up at election day..

[neutron]

52. That's not a "Dead Heat" Obama is LOSING

[neutron]

50. self delete

self delete

[notundecided]

74. Look at LA Times Poll

LA Times has Hillary up by double digits.

[MadBadger]

2. Obama has a white problem my ass.

I think she still wins because of Early Voting, but Obama will make it close.

[billbuckhead]

5. Whites won't say they will vote for the black candidate in the polls

but when it come time to pull the lever they vote white. The black candidate lose almost every time. Hillary does better than she polls cause women don't want to admit they will vote for the woman candidate.

[CTLawGuy]

40. they must have polled some secret white people in SC

becuase some polls had him at 10% of the white vote. Ended up with 24% of the white vote. I don't remember a poll that had him over 24% of the white vote on the eve of the vote.

[Tarheel_Dem]

64. the poster has a problem with blacks, i have proof. He dropped his "hood"

on another thread. He just can't believe white people would vote for a black person.

[billbuckhead]

70. Most white or Hispanic people won't vote for a black person

That's why the south is close to solid Republican or DINO's. BTW, why do you support the passive-agressive empty suit over the most serious and experienced woman candidate in history? Got something against women? BTW, women are 51 percentage of voters and blacks are a of quarter that.

When the media turns on :+bama, it will be to save the white people from an Al Queda appeasing black in the white house. Hey, I'm just the messenger. I've personally voted for John Lewis, Andrew Young, Shirley Franklin, Bill Campbell (Who Obama reminds me of), Thurbert Baker, I've called into Atlanta talk shows and defended Cynthia McKinney. Think whatever you want about me but Obama has already reframed the election in a bad way, it's all about him and not about Republican failure.

[Tarheel_Dem]

75. mmmm....okay

:eyes:

[CTLawGuy]

77. maybe in the south that's true

but it wasn't true in Iowa, or New Hampshire (where Obama got a close second), or even Nevada (where he won several rural, white counties).

Nor is it true in Massachusetts, which has a black governor (and that state is 3% black).

[Jed Dilligan]

There's still something wrong in your title

I am prepared to believe that whites turn racist in secret, god knows, I've seen it happen and suspect several that I know of not just voting white but voting red!

The women in my life from my 64 year old mom to my 28 year old girlfriend are almost unanimously repulsed by Clinton and drawn to Obama. I don't think they will change their minds in the booth. Once a woman decides against another woman, sisterhood is out the window. It's not like race, unless gender gaps and bias represent the main struggle in their lives. Some would argue that this is true of all women, but I think they're projecting their own struggles onto other women who may see other struggles as more important and central to their identities.

[Bicoastal]

3. BEFORE Edwards dropped out?

Lookin' good, lookin' good.

[usregimechange]

24. Yep so that is a wild card.

[Tropics_Dude83]

4. So at least California White voters aren't racist n/t

[nonconformist]

9. So if you're a white voter who doesn't support Obama, you're racist?

This has been going on the entire primary season... is this the crap we have to look forward to for 4 years if Obama becomes president?

[aquart]

13. Yes.

But don't compare him to Jesse Jackson because Jesse is black.

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. How can Obama possibly repay Teddy and Caroline

A large part of this is due to them. He owes them an eternal debt of gratitude. We all do. When the Kennedys speak, the democratic base listens.

[scheming daemons]

6. Wait....

Obama had a 3-point lead among WHITE voters?

Didn't Bill try to tell us that Obama is the "black" candidate?


hee hee....

Hillary's campaign is in nosedive..

[otohara]

7. I'm So Frickin Nervous

I don't want Tuesday to come yet.

[aquart]

8. Obama will have the greatest victory on Super Tuesday.

And his supporters will behave like hyenas.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

17. If he comes out well ahead...

I suspect they will behave like hyenas. I'd be more than willing to congratulate him on some amazing campaign work though.

[thoughtcrime1984]

62. Hyenas? Come on now.

Let's not get ugly, Hillary is going to win, right? :)

[aquart]

10. Link?

[Tropics_Dude83]

15. No no no you're not racist if your're White and oppose Obama

It's just nice to see that there's not a huge white vote AGAINST Obama for once.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com is the link.

[aquart]

28. Thank you!

[Proud2BAmurkin]

12. Obama is done in CA. Stick a fork in him

[CoffeeCat]

34. Let's give you a fork...

...because you'll be eating a big plate of crow, next Tuesday night.

[calteacherguy]

42. Are you in California? That's not the sense I get speaking to voters here. nt

[UALRBSofL]

14. Are you including the absentee ballots

I heard half the voters have already voted absentee.

[Meldread]

22. Ditto, was going to ask the same question.

That absentee voting shit really fucks up the election. Obama probably could have won Florida if it weren't for those - I think he won with everyone who made up their mind in the last month before voting. I really don't think voting absentee is fair to candidates who are virtual unknowns.

[pdxmike]

18. but they've been voting in Ca for weeks

and if the earlier polls are a guide, those early voters will go to Clinton. The same dynamic played out in Fla. The early voters (by mail) went strong for Clinton, and the later voters went somewhat for Obama. With a net Clinton win. We'll see. I'm curious as to how Teddy's endorsement will effect the hispanic vote.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. I thought a lot about this, but decided after Florida it isn't much of an issue.

They said over a million Republicans had already voted in the GOP primary and that would help Giuliani out, since he was leading nationally when those votes were cast. It really didn't have much of an impact in the end, however.

[featherman]

19. Not holy writ but terriffic indicator

Now for some bad news from a CA Dem Party official (me)

With nearly half the ballots mail-in as early as two weeks ago, many of these will break according to Clinton's early lead.

With much of the pro-Clinton Hispanic vote not being mail-in but on election day, Obama will be lucky to break even in Election Day voting

I'm looking at Clinton taking about 50% and hoping Obama can top 40% for a better delegate split.

What might help: Kennedy's campaigning whittling into Hispanic vote a bit

[Tropics_Dude83]

23. Featherman, a question for you

Featherman,

Why do Hispanics break so heavily for Clinton?

[featherman]

27. Name recognition, love for Bill mostly

[Blue_State_Elitist]

29. I was at a Hillary event in Santa Ana over the holidays.

To me it seemed like the so cal latinos love of Hillary goes back to Bill's campaigns in California in the 90's. There was also a strong emphasis on her being the first female president.

[featherman]

32. Another good insight. They do love Bill (as do I)

[grantcart]

20. Here's the link

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary

[Kittycat]

53. "Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California. "

So if what Featherman stated, regarding early voting (2wks ago) breaking according to polls - then HRC should have a 5% lead with the early voting (or there about). I'm willing to take those odds. I think CA will be close, and it's most likely HRC will win - but I think we'll keep it reigned in pretty tight.

[grantcart]

56. it depends on the modeling they used for the polls

the Latino vote is very light in most primaries. Given the fact that California likes to be out front and Californians want to be progressive I can't help but feel that they will want to be more progressive than South Carolina especially now that Ted said it was ok. I think its going to be Obama and not close.

[MadBadger]

21. Teddy will be in CA soon, cant wait.

[Quixote1818]

25. HOLY SHIT!

:wow:

[Araxen]

30. So much for the snub effect

eh?

[featherman]

31. CA DEM voters are pretty progressive so there could be hope

I hope
Still can't see a win, though, with nearly half the votes cast. Come on, California, surprise this numbers guy

[CoffeeCat]

33. I'm telling ya...

I saw this happen in Iowa.

Hillary was ahead in Iowa. Then the campaigns rolled into the state.

Slowly, her support evaporated--while Obama and Edwards were trending upward.

Hillary's support in these untapped states--evaporates every time. It happened
in Iowa, NH, NV and SC. Hillary was leading by double digits in most of those
states.

Hillary's support is soft and based mainly on name recognition. Plus,the
media touted her "inevitability" for a year. When America sees and hears what
Obama has to offer---it's really amazing what happens.

All of a sudden, the races are right and Hillary's double-digit leads have disappeared.

I saw this happen in Iowa, and I know it will happen across the nation.

[UALRBSofL]

35. I saw it different in New Hampshire

CNN had Obama leading by double digits in NH but Hillary won.

[CoffeeCat]

39. Actually....the fact is...

That Hillary was leading by double digits in the NH polls--in the
months and weeks leading up to the New Hampshire primary.

After all was said and done, it was a fairly close race.

Hillary was ahead by 20 points in South Carolina. Obama won
by 25 points. Hillary was up by 17 in Nevada two months before
the caucus.

The gap narrows--that was my point.

[UALRBSofL]

47. CNN reported the day befor NH

that Obama had a double digit lead and when he lost all the commentators were shocked on CNN.

[billbuckhead]

37. That's why we have elections and not caucuses

Hopefull the real Democrat wins and not the Raygun buttkissing affirmative action empty suit.

[Strelnikov_]

41. " . . affirmative action empty suit"

Wow.

[CoffeeCat]

45. I know...

...sickening isn't it?

[Strelnikov_]

49. Absolutely disgusting. The kind of racist crap I would expect to see on Stormfront

or FR.


This site has officially jumped the shark as far as I am concerned.

[Tarheel_Dem]

i'm telling you this guy is a straight up racist azzhead.....

he told me on another thread that the Dem party would attract more whites if blacks would leave, because the Dems are perceived as the "black party". He is totally disgusting.

[billbuckhead]

71. What's different about that vs if the black guy doesn't win we don't vote?

Want to know why Bloomberg is mayor of a very liberal and ethnic city? I guess NYC voters are also racist?

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

81. Yup.

He told me straight up that we shouldn't have nominated any hypothetical black person for the nominee. A white man would be better.

[CoffeeCat]

43. And who is your candidate?

It wouldn't be the neocon war-sucking, cry-me-a-river, corporatist hack--pretending to be a Democrat
in a pantsuit, now would it?

[BeyondGeography]

54. He doesn't advocate for anyone

but he does like to stick it to the negro. (This isn't the first time.)

[agdlp]

36. 47 % of all votes in California will be cast by mail - a Super Tuesday Trend

During a conference call with state reporters, the campaign noted the importance of early voting by mail. Fabian Nunez, speaker of the California Assembly, said more votes will be cast by mail in California than were cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. “In some cases, enough votes are gonna be banked to win the contest,” Nunez said.

The most recent figures obtained from the California Association of County Election Officials (CACEO) show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned, out of the more than 5 million that were requested. But CACEO president Steven Weir estimates that the actual number of returned ballots is already over 2 million. Weir also predicts that 47% of all votes will be cast by mail.

In 2004, just under 3 million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, while 2.1 million votes were cast in the uncontested Republican primary. For that primary, as with this one, there were also ballot initiatives driving some of the turnout. Weir says some of the ballots that have been returned actually indicate no choice for president. “ came out to vote for the props,” he said. “But this is being driven by the top of the tickets.”

Capitalizing on these early voters was clearly a strategy of the Clinton campaign. “The more votes we can lock in now while she’s still leading with double digits, is what some would all an insurance policy,” said Luis Vizcaino, spokesperson for the Clinton campaign here.

[calteacherguy]

44. Over 80% of those ballots will be mailed this week

but you go on right ahead and keep hoping.

[Joe the Revelator]

46. ha, excellent

[agdlp]

59. records show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned

:-)

[krabigirl]

48. Yep, I sent in my Edwards vote a week ago.

[bluedawg12]

38. 1/3 of voters still undecided-

"Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the state’s voters were certain they had settled on their final choice.

That meant nearly a third could still change their mind, a figure that grew when Edwards left the race." - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_democratic_presidential_primary

[Thrill]

51. Herman Munster and Proud2BAmurkin must be crapping their pants

[TeamJordan23]

55. Seriously, they are the two most annoying people on DU. Go Obama! nm

[CreekDog]

57. I mailed my CA ballot 2 days ago...

2 weeks ago I was happy HC won Nevada. But guess who I just voted for? I wanted to vote for him and finally decided after all the nonsense of the past 2 weeks to just do it that he was the best candidate.

[catagory5]

58. C'mon tell the rest of the numbers!

Yes Obama is 'closing' the gap a slight bit in some states. (and I mean slight) But I mean c'mon, your sugar coating the numbers. You are only reporting that paticular poll because it show Obama with somewhat decent numbers against Clinton. How about all the other polls from realclearpolitics.com? It takes an average of all the polls for a paticular state and that would be......................................................................................................................................................................................................

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Spread

RCP Average 01/13 - 01/29 - 45.0 33.3 10.5 Clinton +11.7



Rasmussen 01/29 - 01/29 807 LV 43 40 9 Clinton +3.0
SurveyUSA 01/27 - 01/27 888 LV 49 38 9 Clinton +11.0
Politico/CNN/LAT 01/23 - 01/27 690 LV 49 32 14 Clinton +17.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/23 - 01/26 779 HT 47 35 10 Clinton +12.0
Field 01/14 - 01/20 377 LV 39 27 10 Clinton +12.0
PPIC 01/13 - 01/20 543 LV 43 28 11 Clinton +15.0
See All California Democratic Primary Polling Data


Clinton PLUS 11.7

Survey usa obama 38 CLINTON 49 from 1-27-08

Now read this from Politico.com From Jan 28th.


Barack Obama continues to trail Hillary Rodham Clinton in California by a wide margin, according to a new Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times poll, while John McCain has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney.

Clinton won the support of 49 percent of those polled by telephone by Opinion Research Corp. Jan. 23-27, a period that covered several days in advance of the South Carolina Democratic primary and one day afterward.

Obama came in second place, with 32 percent to John Edwards’ 14 percent.

The poll surveyed 690 likely Democratic primary voters, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results are similar to a Politico/CNN/Los Angeles Times poll taken Jan. 11-13, in which Clinton led 47 percent to 31 percent, with Edwards claiming 10 percent.Obama came in second place with 32 percent to 14 percent for John Edwards.

And perhaps most promising for the Clinton campaign, the new poll found that only 4 percent of likely Democratic primary voters had not made up their minds.


So don't come here with half the facts. Say it all. Yes Obama is a great Man, wise beyond his years, and very noble. I like him and I am not ashamed to admit that. But, Hillary, or Billary, or whatever yall want to call it, are the top 2 'politicians' that America has seen in many years. Polorizing? yes. Cold sometimes? yes But She does care, Bill does care, and I believe are still a strong force to be reckoned with.

Real good read titled "Why Clinton can count on Latinos" from latimes.com
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-oe-pachon30jan30,0,869578.story

Basically it goes on to say Hillary has a very large lead among latinos all across America and that the support is not dying down but actually growing. Kennedy will not make a difference in Latino vote and that Latinos in California may make up 18% of voters. It is lower at around 8% in the middle of America.

Call it name recognition, or Bill effect, whatever. The Latino's remember what bill Clinton did as A president and stood by him always, even during Monicagate. The are loyal and they remember. Unlike alot of Democrats as of late. Bill bashing at an all time high. Oh how they forget how good it was during the Clinton Administration (sp.) That's life. Flavor of the day comes around and it's out with the old in with the new. Human nature.

You know, I dont even know why I am writing all this and making my hand hurt. Obama is a great man. He would be WAY better than what we got. I will support him if he is the nom. Hillary is way better than what we got. I have her back until she is knocked out. I just really believe she will be our "Gal"


Sorry for Ranting. Let's get back to getting along........Were all Democrats first huh?

[Knox Harrington]

60. New Hampshire proved

that polls don't mean a thing.

And you BO supporters seem to be forgetting that California has a TON of Hispanic voters. Now, who do you think they're going to vote for??

Well, I have to say, it's going to make the victory even sweeter knowing that all these BO supporters were drunk on their false hopes.

[NJSecularist]

61. Let's break this down for a second

Obama will win the black vote by a big margin
Clinton will win the hispanic vote by a big margin
According to this poll, Obama leads among whites.

It should be a closer race than anybody had thought. Clinton supporters were ready to declare CA a safe state for them 2 weeks ago.

[Knox Harrington]

65. There are a lot more hispanics in California

than blacks. Also, I don't know why this hasn't been pointed out but guess what other type of people there is a lot of in California? Asians. And I will guarantee, no, I will GUARANTEE you that they'll go almost exclusively to HRC.

And hopefully that jerk will finally skulk back to Illinois and leave the rest of us alone.

[thoughtcrime1984]

67. the jerk just might be you

Yup, I ignore assholes.

[NJSecularist]

69. Alot more Hispanics than Blacks?

According to the CA census

Hispanics - 15%
Blacks - 13%

Nice attempt to spin, though.

[jasmine621]

72. But what is the break out of "registered" voters?

There may be more Hispanics in CA but are (1) legal or illgal immigrants (2) registered voters?

[NJSecularist]

79. Does anybody have that data?

All I have is the census data.

[catagory5]

63. Like I said, 'it's enough'

I mean c'mon guys, lets get above this. Polls are shit. Who cares? Let's stop the bickering BS. It's ok to cheerlead for your canidate but this has gone whack. I think after Thursdays debate alot of people will tone down the rethoric.

Let's just wait and see......

[catagory5]

68. Obama VP?

Another point we should consider, albeit a long shot at best. What if all this fighting has splintered the party so bad, has made us look like we are not united together? This could really be bad for us in the GE. What if the only way to save the Whitehouse was for Barack to be Hill's Veep or for Hill to be Barack's Veep? How would that make all of us feel? I know most of yall are gonna say 'he wouldn't do it" but why not? If the party is more important than the individual then maybe so....

[tandem5]

66. What did this same poll show her leading by two weeks ago? I believe it was 5 points...

hmmm and every other poll that has a sampling longer than a single day has shown double digits - funky.

[joshcryer]

73. One thing that isn't being mentioned. CA is west coast. People getting off work to vote...

...will be basing their vote largely on who won on the east coast. Obama getting Georgia will be interesting, but NY should sway that a bit.

Never underestimate the power of the mob vote. People just voting a certain way because everyone else is. Oh wait, that's the whole point of our democracy.

[Occam Bandage]

76. OBAMA LEADS AMONG CA WHITES. Nice.

[suston96]

78. Rely on single polls at great risk......

http://politicalref.com/PollCenter/StatePolls/California.html

CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PRMARY
Clinton Leads by 14.6%

1/23-1/27 690LV 4.0 49 32 14

More.....

[Az_lefty]

80. What's going on with the Hispanic voters? I don't understand the attraction to Clinton.

:shrug: