Zogby: Obama ahead in California; tied in Missouri and New Jersey Hotlist

[caligirl]

Credit to dumbya at daily kos who posted this at 10:37 tonight.http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/3/13042/84123/818/448690


* dumbya's diary :: ::
*

Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.

It would be an extraordinary feat to see Obama come within 1 point of Hillary in New Jersey, considering that it's her backyard. Hillary also had a huge lead in Missouri just over a week ago, but now it seems that it has evaporated into thin air.

Furthermore, Obama appears to be consolidating his lead in Georgia.

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.

From the polling results, we can ascertain that this race is precipitously shifting in favor of Obama.



Don't you love California now more than ever!!!!


better news!VOTE!
EDIT for UPDATE
Update: Many people are criticizing Zogby and some of their criticisms may be fair. however, the Field Poll will be coming out tomorrow and it will also show that the race in California is a dead heat, thus corroborating the results of Zogby's poll that shows a dramatic shift towards Obama. Special thanks to SUBLIMINABILITY for pointing this out in the comments

[billbuckhead]

1. What about the first woman president?

[AX10]

4. DU has become a soundboard for Obama.

So has Air America.

[ErnestoG]

18. Well boo fucking hoo.

[caligirl]

10. Rory Kennedy answers this question with a profound belief in

womens issues and the future of this country.

"Times are far too dark, the price of failure too steep and the road ahead too perilous for us to vote on identity politics. I would love to see a woman be president. I would love to see an African American be president. But right now, what I would love most is to elect the best person for the job.

I believe that person is Sen. Barack Obama. As a leader, he has inspired generations of Americans to look beyond reductive categories like gender or race. Instead, he calls on us to think past our own individual interests, to envision a world that is better for every person in it.

Like Senator Clinton, I have no doubt of Senator Obama's commitment to the issues I care about. But, his unique ability to unify this country and transcend partisan gridlock means that we can finally get something done."http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rory-kennedy/two-fine-choices-one-cle_b_84609.html

[GoldieAZ49]

23. But, his unique ability to unify this country and transcend partisan gridlock means that we can fina

that is the biggest difference between the two

[caligirl]

26. Is it the person or the issue you really want to vote for? Look at the issues

you care about and I think you will see Obama can do a great job.


"I empathize with Senator Clinton. In her run for president, she has been forced to walk a difficult line. She is scrutinized not only for her political positions, but also for her clothing, hair and make-up. When she is tough, she is called cold, when she is emotional, she is labeled weak. It can't be easy. I have an enormous amount of respect for the way she has handled this near-impossible balancing act. And still, that is not enough of a reason for me to vote for her.

I am concerned about women getting equal pay for equal work and breaking through the glass ceiling. I care about policies regarding health and education, issues that affect me personally. I have no doubt of Senator Clinton's commitment to these issues. And still, that is not enough of a reason for me to vote for her."

[GoldieAZ49]

46. I have looked at the issues, Obama is the choice, then I look at electability

and again Obama has the ability to bring in new voters to the party, to bring indies and moderate republicans, that makes him the clear choice for me on all levels.

I would love to see a GE with 60% going for Obama, I think he can do it. No other candidate running can.

[billbuckhead]

47. Obama can't hail a cab in 90% of the county!

Obama will be an extraordinarily divisive candiate with no upside for the nation or Dems

[GoldieAZ49]

48. I disagree

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I'm skeptical of Zogby, but oh how I want this to be true.

[MadBadger]

6. Why be skeptical? He's actually had a good track record so far. He nailed Nevada.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Really? I didn't know that.

[MadBadger]

15. Yea, He had Clinton beating Obama by four and Edwards with 6%

He had Obama expanding on his lead in the final days of SC too.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. That makes me feel better!

I know he predicted a win in South Carolina, but I don't think anyone could have predicted the 30 point victory Obama delivered.

[arewenotdemo]

3. Great news!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[CreekDog]

5. These appear to be the more reliable phone polls from Zogby not the online stuff

Clinton, Obama in close Super Tuesday races

By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent 34 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are running neck-and-neck in California, New Jersey and Missouri two days before the sprawling "Super Tuesday" presidential showdown, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.
ADVERTISEMENT

Obama has a slight lead in California and is virtually tied with Clinton in New Jersey and Missouri heading into the biggest day of voting in a U.S. presidential nominating campaign, with contests in 24 states from coast to coast.

"It looks like we have some serious horse races going on with Clinton and Obama," said pollster John Zogby said. "However it turns out, we can be pretty sure it is too close to be resolved on Tuesday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080203/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Since Zogby's consistently wrong, I say Obama loses CA by 6%

:-)

[Drunken Irishman]

8. heh...well he was right on all but one state (NH).

[caligirl]

13. who got NH right? anyone? no one. Rasmussen has generally been the

less reliable poll. Or at least I recall in 04 that was the case.

[David Zephyr]

14. The most accurate polling organization in America.

Zogby is the bible.

[caligirl]

30. thank you, did you read the comment down thread from Ben David?

[Unsane]

11. Clinton camp: "oohhhhhh fuuuuuck"

[caligirl]

22. Earlier on the MTP show( the one time I watched it) someone

said he felt Bill had done some serious damage to the campaign. He said if he had we'd see it Tuesday.

[GoldieAZ49]

28. Really? They are calling for Bill to help?

:smoke:

[Raine]

32. Yup Bill is blowing into CA

to hold a series of rallys on Sunday.

[caligirl]

34. Oh I love your sarcasm tonight. LOL.

:smoke:

[Webster Green]

12. Behold the awesome power of The Grateful Dead!..

Well, you know....what's left of them.

That was the huge endorsement that will put Obama over the top!

...."Sometimes the lights are all shining on me"...Da dum, Da Dum, Dee Dee Dum.......:hippie:

[caligirl]

16. and they haven't even played yet, thats power. LOL.

that concert is tomorrow.

[Webster Green]

24. Sold out, dammit!

I thought about going to The City for that, but didn't act on it quick enough.

[TexasObserver]

17. I think Obama will win Super Tuesday

Overall trends seem to indicate he could win thin or win big.

I'm expecting a win, not a knockout.

[ErnestoG]

19. the way trends are going, you could well be right.

[Cha]

20. Always love California..that's where my

daughter was born and I spent some of the best years of my life..and now they're doin' their thang!

[David Zephyr]

27. Hello my lovely zidzi! My heart is swelling with hope tonight.

Two young college students knocked on my door here in Claremont this afternoon for Obama. A Latino young man and a white young lady. They walked up the mountain where I live to every home for Senator Obama. Tonight in our little village, there were three young fellows (Latino and White) with large signs standing in the intersection for Barack at 9PM.

zidzi, I feel a special bond with you and tonight our home here is filled with hope for the possible. The polls are now measuring what I've seen with my own eyes.

When Ethel Kennedy said that Barack reminded her of Bobby, it just tugged right at my heart.

Here's a warm embrace to you and a heart felt "Yes, we can!"

:hug:

[caligirl]

33. Oh yes, her comment that Obama feels it like Bobby did, did it for me.

So personal. She saw it in Bobby first hand and recognizes it in Barack. Its what I saw and felt watching Barack speak at the democratic convention in 04, but not like her.

[Cha]

38. Hi David!~ How sweet that Obama could

very well be victorious in California..that amazing state of mind..so diverse and large it could be a small country!

This is so amazing because I just read earlier.. like yesterday that hilary was going to take California and now it's..Not so fast!

I love the young people caring enough to get out there and do the walking for someone we really can believe in..no more lip service.

Have fun the next couple of days gearin' up for Super Tues..I know quite a few people voting for Obama here in New York. I wish we could make a big noticeable dent in the facade like New Jersey is poised to do.

:hi: :hug:

[BenDavid]

25. Mo. clinton 46-41----Calif. clinton 47 - 38 ny clinton52-34

new jersey clinton 49 to 37
conn. clinton 42 to 38
ala. clinton 44 to 42
tenn. clinton 49 to 35

many state polling tough to find ....these are the latest with polling used from abc/wapo---rasmussen--
rpg----mason dixon.....no zogby since zogby seems to create a favorable poll for the right$$$$

[LVjinx]

29. Zogby polls

Are ntoriously off, sometimes deliberately so. His polls aren't just raw numbers, they're 'adjusted' to what he perceives the current situation is.

[NJSecularist]

35. I see how it works

If it's not a poll favorable to Hillary, that means Zogby adjusts his poll data to spite Hillary.

Geez. The conspiracy theories. :eyes:

[Tarheel_Dem]

39. some insider knowledge you want to share with the class?

or is that a trade secret? Or are you just pulling shit out of your azz? You people are incredible. Don't like the poll results....Discredit the pollster?

[Webster Green]

31. "seems to create a favorable poll for the right$$$$"..

Is there evidence of Zogby taking bribes to produce favorable numbers? I would like to hear more about it!

Any links or anything like that?

Thanks!:patriot:

[caligirl]

36. UPDATE ADDED TO OP ABOVE, GOOD NEWS, FIELD POLL IN.

It has Obama within 2

[Colobo]

37. OBAMA! OBAMA! OBAMA! OBAMA!

[David Zephyr]

40. Enthusiastic K&R and the warmest wishes to caligirl

Here's a warm embrace filled with Obama hope.

Thank you for the encouraging news from Zogby. It now appears that other pollsters are confirming what Zogby is reporting. There is a gigantic wave of support toward Senator Obama and just in time.

I've watched Hillary's near 30 point lead here in the Golden State diminish in the last eight weeks, but it seems to be evaporating completely now i

And yes, caligirl, I do love California. It is my beloved home.

:hug:

[The Delegates]

41. If these results are accurate

Obama is going to come out of Super Tuesday well ahead. If Obama comes out of Super Tuesday ahead, I see no way he loses the nomination.

[caligirl]

42. The ground game has to rock Tues, this isn't in the bag yet.

[Kahuna]

43. Great day in the morning!!!!! This is sensational news!!! Even if it doesn't

hold up, it's enough to make some Hillaryites chill for the next couple of days.

[AtomicKitten]

44. Oh, hell yes.

Yes, we can.

[caligirl]

45. Every voter has to vote or this means zip. Remember NH, no resting.

[BringBigDogBack]

49. outstanding.

[BringBigDogBack]

50. kick