Zogby: Obama ahead in California; tied in Missouri and New Jersey (also ahead in Utah)

[cali]

by dumbya
Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:37:59 PM PST
I apologize for the brevity of my diary; however, I think the results speak for themselves. Zogby has some pretty surprising results in his latest polls, which are to be released tomorrow.

dumbya's diary :: ::
Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.
It would be an extraordinary feat to see Obama come within 1 point of Hillary in New Jersey, considering that it's her backyard. Hillary also had a huge lead in Missouri just over a week ago, but now it seems that it has evaporated into thin air.

Furthermore, Obama appears to be consolidating his lead in Georgia.

Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, has a comfortable 20-point lead in Georgia fueled by a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Clinton among black voters.
From the polling results, we can ascertain that this race is precipitously shifting in favor of Obama.

Update: Many people are criticizing Zogby and some of their criticisms may be fair. however, the Field Poll will be coming out tomorrow and it will also show that the race in California is a dead heat, thus corroborating the results of Zogby's poll that shows a dramatic shift towards Obama. Special thanks to SUBLIMINABILITY for pointing this out in the comments

2nd Update:Obama has opened up a huge lead in Utah, a state that was also firmly in Clinton's camp last month.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/3/13042/84123/818/448690

[Life Long Dem]

1. CSPAN just had Zolgby on with all the polls.

CA would be huge.

[monarch]

2. Great!

When Hillary wins, it can be played as a terrific comeback and unstoppable momentum rather than ho-hum.

[cali]

3. Ah, you mean if Hillary wins

and I actually think odds are good that she will win CA and NJ and MO, but it's unlikely to be a blowout and ST is looking more and more as if it won't settle anything.

[mrmx9]

4. As they say - TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Let's hope for a South Carolina style surge for Obama in the last two days (and a lot of the early voters ballots get lost in the post!)

[neutron]

6. Krugman TORE UP Obama's Economic plan

Responding to Recession
by Paul Krugman

<snip>
Since this is an election year, the debate over how to stimulate the economy is inevitably tied up with politics. And here’s a modest suggestion for political reporters. Instead of trying to divine the candidates’ characters by scrutinizing their tone of voice and facial expressions, why not pay attention to what they say about economic policy?
In fact, recent statements by the candidates and their surrogates about the economy are quite revealing.
<snip>
On the Democratic side, John Edwards, although never the front-runner, has been driving his party’s policy agenda. He’s done it again on economic stimulus: last month, before the economic consensus turned as negative as it now has, he proposed a stimulus package including aid to unemployed workers, aid to cash-strapped state and local governments, public investment in alternative energy, and other measures.
Last week Hillary Clinton offered a broadly similar but somewhat larger proposal. (It also includes aid to families having trouble paying heating bills, which seems like a clever way to put cash in the hands of people likely to spend it.) The Edwards and Clinton proposals both contain provisions for bigger stimulus if the economy worsens.
And you have to say that Mrs. Clinton seems comfortable with and knowledgeable about economic policy. I’m sure the Hillary-haters will find some reason that’s a bad thing, but there’s something to be said for presidents who know what they’re talking about.
The Obama campaign’s initial response to the latest wave of bad economic news was, I’m sorry to say, disreputable: Mr. Obama’s top economic adviser claimed that the long-term tax-cut plan the candidate announced months ago is just what we need to keep the slump from “morphing into a drastic decline in consumer spending.” Hmm: claiming that the candidate is all-seeing, and that a tax cut originally proposed for other reasons is also a recession-fighting measure — doesn’t that sound familiar?
Anyway, on Sunday Mr. Obama came out with a real stimulus plan. As was the case with his health care plan, which fell short of universal coverage, his stimulus proposal is similar to those of the other Democratic candidates, but tilted to the right.
For example, the Obama plan appears to contain none of the alternative energy initiatives that are in both the Edwards and Clinton proposals, and emphasizes across-the-board tax cuts over both aid to the hardest-hit families and help for state and local governments. I know that Mr. Obama’s supporters hate to hear this, but he really is less progressive than his rivals on matters of domestic policy.
In short, the stimulus debate offers a pretty good portrait of the men and woman who would be president. And I haven’t said a word about their hairstyles.

[BeyondGeography]

8. The Mighty Krugman's not having much of an impact, is he?

I wonder what the data is on the Krugman Effect, anyway.

[polichick]

5. Heck with the Superbowl...

Super Tuesday is the game to watch!!!

[Nimrod2005]

7. Good morning to you Cali, thank you for the excellent news!!!

[Robbins]

9. Zogby

Don't underestimate these polls.Zogby was the only one who had Iowa Obama,Edwards,Hillary.And was
the only one with a big lead for Obama In South Carolina even close to final result.If Obama wins
California by even one point It will be a earthquake.If he just barely loses New Jearsy It will be big.He was expected to lose by double digets.And seeing the rally here In Missouri don't count out
him out In Missouri.And the missouri poll suggests he could poll It out.