Conventional msm wisdom says, If HRC wins 20 out of the 22 states in play on Tuesday, even if the

[IsItJustMe]

delegate count is close, it's all over for BO.

I was watching CNN earlier and they had three 'wise' political analologist on there. It's very possible, given the way that the Dems appropriate there delegates, that HRC can win most of the states and still be very close, if not damn near equal, to BO, in the delicate count (i.e. Nevada: Hillary won popular vote while BO won more delegates).

I don't buy that argument at all. To me, if the delegate count is close after Tuesday, the race is still on.

What say you?

Edit: correction 10-12 20-22

[ErnestoG]

1. There are MSM elements who are pushing Hillary harder than a constipated turd...

there is no doubt about that. So I would take that talk with a huge bag of salt.

[Alexander]

2. She won't. Obama's winning in Illinois, Georgia, Utah, Connecticut and California.

He's tied with her in Alabama, Missouri and Arizona.

He will probably win the Alaska and North Dakota caucuses.

There is no way Obama will walk away with fewer than 4 states on Tuesday. There is a good chance of him winning more than 6 states, which will be devastating to Hillary.

[Clinton Crusader]

20. What polls did you use for this? thanks

[Drunken Irishman]

31. I can answer that.

Zogby has Obama up 2 in California.
The Deseret News has Obama up 24 in Utah.
Polls in Georgia have Obama up big there.
Alabama is split, within the polls.

Hope that helped! :hi:

[LordJFT]

3. yeah i agree its all about the delegates

though a several wins would be really nice, especially in cali

[IsItJustMe]

6. That's what I was thinking. It is about the delegates. We saw to 2000 when Gore got beat, even

though he had a half million more votes than GW. It is about the delegates, bottom line.

[LordJFT]

19. there's now way he'll only win two states tho

Illinois, utah and Georgia are locks with others looking pretty good like idaho, delaware, colorado, conn and cali

[Thrill]

4. She'll be lucky to win 10 of the 22

[jefferson_dem]

5. Advantage Obama, if he's within striking distance after Tuesday.

Pasted from an earlier post of mine ---

Here's what's coming up the rest of Feburary that could give Obama the BIG MO...>!

Feb 9:
Washington caucuses - Obama does well in caucus states, run good in Seattle
Nebraska caucuses -

Feb 10
Maine caucuses -

Feb 12:
Virginia - diverse, Tim Kaine endorsement helps
Maryland - diverse, large African-American vote
DC - a given

Feb 19:
Wisconsin - anti-war, lots of students

[my3boyz]

9. Hope those caucus states

are more like Iowa instead of Nevada.

[Radical Activist]

23. Nevada was good for Obama.

He was supposed to lose by 10-20 points and ended up winning the most delegates.

No one in the media is writing this but I think Obama does better in caucus states because white people who might vote against Obama in the voting booth don't want to stand next to their neighbors and have to explain why they voted against a candidate just for being black.

[Radical Activist]

22. I read about him making a play for Nebraska

Smart. If he doesn't win on Super Tuesday it will revive his campaign. If he does win it could be the final nail in the coffin to push Clinton out.

[featherman]

7. That's a really strange spin - a head scratcher

Clinton loses the delegate count and the majority of states in play and this somehow eliminates Obama? WTF?
Somebody is goofin' ya.

[never_get_over_it]

8. I think most states are not winner take all

so winning and losing doesn't matter as much as the delegate count - I don't think this thing will be decided on Tuesday....

[Drunken Irishman]

12. No states are winner take all.

[never_get_over_it]

17. Well there you go

lol - won't be over on Tuesday I don't think....but you know we won't be deciding that the M$M will decide for us - just like they did with our candidates....

[IsItJustMe]

15. From my understanding, the Dems are apportioned according to the vote; where as the Repugs are

winner take all. In general, I think this is true.

[featherman]

18. Winning and losing state counts for the MSM in declaring "winner"

regardless of delegate count. It's part of the election night story.

For example, Clinton "won" Nevada in the media playbook even though she lost the delegate count 13-12
So there is a perception advantage to "winning' a state

[never_get_over_it]

25. Yes indeed

please see my post #17

good of them to do that for us - but when it comes to the convention I think they might actually count delegates - but then again maybe they use electronic voting machines and delegate voter suppression - now a days one never knows....

[Drunken Irishman]

10. What states are we talking about?

[Thrill]

11. Clinton HAS to Win Super Tuesday because Obama

Is going to win VA, MD, and Washington area. Hillary better have a big lead after Tuesday or she is finished

[Drunken Irishman]

14. She not only needs to win, she needs to whipe the floor with Obama.

That means win California by 10+.
That means slaughter Obama in NY.
That means win Delaware by a big margin, along with MA, NJ and Connecticut.
That means she needs to get within 10 of Obama in Illinois.
That means she needs to get within 10 of Obama in Georgia.
That means she needs to win Alabama by a wide margin.

If Obama stays within 100 delegates of Clinton after Tuesday, he will become the favorite. If it's 200 delegates, it'll be a toss-up.

[featherman]

21. Lowering expectations for our guy much? LOL

[Drunken Irishman]

30. No, because I think Obama will do extremely well.

My expectations are that he either wins California, or loses barely. I think he'll take Missouri, come close to NJ, win Alabama and Georgia, cruise in Utah, win in Idaho, Colorado and one of those Dakotas.

Clinton, though, CAN'T succeed in a tight Super Tuesday. Obama will have the money, the momentum and he'll start getting some major endorsements. The only way Clinton "wins" Tuesday is if she cleans up and I don't think she will. If it's close, Obama will be declared the winner.

[tritsofme]

13. If Hillary continues to win states but Obama maintains delegate parity, I would assume more super

delegates would gravitate toward Clinton so that the choice of the voters is heard, not some obscure mathematical formula.

[TriMetFan]

16. Oh this thing is far from over.

I don't think this will be over until the Great State Of Oregon gets to vote in May. Thank You very much.:evilgrin:

[jenmito]

24. I saw that. They said if Hillary wins 20 of the 22 states, even if Obama gets more delegates,

it's over. And that ain't gonna happen.

[Blue-Jay]

26. If the delegate count is close, it ain't over.

Not by a longshot.

[Sir Jeffrey]

27. I think it comes down to NY and IL...

because if all things are substantially equal (meaning substantially close counts on delegates), then NY and IL will be the only states where either candidate can have a +59% showing and get bonus delegates. It appears much more likely at this point that Obama would break 59% in IL before Hillary breaks 59% in NY. This would be the biggest headline of Super Tuesday IMO.

The polling data suggests at this point that they are going to split the states quite evenly.

Whoever was on CNN pushing this "wisdom" was either an idiot or a paid shill. Clinton is not going anywhere after Super Tuesday even if she loses every state in play. Obama is not going anywhere after Super Tuesday even if he loses every state in play either. Both candidates have a shitload of money and will walk away from ST with a shitload of delegates. One of them will be up, perhaps by a decent number, but unless all the polling is waaaay off there is not going to be a knockout punch for at least another month. Even in the worst case scenario for either candidate, they could still probably point to a few successes (Obama : "We came within 3 points of Clinton in CA after being down by 20" or Clinton: "We finished one point behind Obama in CA") and march ahead.

What might happen if one candidate delivers a death blow to the other is that the polls in the remaining states shift to the big ST winner...but even still that is not guaranteed. What if Obama wins big on ST and the CLinton machine kicks into high gear and it works? She could still pull out TX, OH, get Florida and Michigan seated, etc. Ditto for Obama. What is he barely loses in all ST states in play but the exposure kicks in and his numbers surge?

This thing is going on for the next month AT LEAST.

[Colobo]

28. Hillary won't win 20 states. Neither will Obama.

[Metric System]

29. Yes, because the MSM is so pro-Hillary. When will poor Obama catch a break?

[elizm]

32. I beleive that the delegate count will be close after Tuesday...

And the race will go on. But if Obama wins California, all bets are off, and it is over for Hillary.