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Edited on Wed Feb-06-08 05:32 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter
All old-time political pros know that momentum is a very real phenomenon. When Obama surged after Iowa and had big leads in NH polling, everyone knew that his final total would be even bigger... a drop-dead blow-out.
That is what would have happened in any normal election. But the Iowa bounce was a 3-4 day move.
Then Obama surged big-time after his South Carolina landslide, and it was obvious that he was going to put Clinton away on Super Tuesday, but exactly the same thing happened... the momentum fizzled in an impossibly short time going into Super Tuesday, with things simmering down to 50-50.
So what we are learning is that the Obama candidacy is something new under the sun. It moves more like like a pop-culture phenomenon than a political campaign. People are easily moved toward him, but have an inertial disposition to move away from him.
And that's why everyone is scratching their heads all the time. Obama is the highest "Beta" political stock were have ever seen. ("Beta" is a measure of volatility in a stock.)
That doesn't mean he sucks, or that he's great. It's just different. His easy ability to attract, but not necessarily hold, swing types has implications for the long-term viability of his campaign, and is consistent with the position almost all pollsters have come to adopt, which is that he has the best chance of winning 56%, and also the best chance of winning 40%.
High Beta.
And that explains the extreme range of opinions of his candidacy. "Glass half full" people see a fuller glass than they've ever seen. "Glass half empty" people see looming disaster.
And they are both right!
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