"Obama can extend the contest (against McCain) to the Deep South" - agree or disagree?

[Eric J in MN]

The quote is from "Steve Murphy, a Democratic strategist who advised Bill Richardson's presidential campaign."

If you agree, then which state in the Deep South could Obama win?

[JimGinPA]

1. I Think He'll Be Competitive In A Lot Of Red States

People are sick of this war. 70% think it's wrong.

[blm]

6. I agree - plus, we'll be seeing new voters who have been passed over for decades and

never involved in politics thinking nothing will change for people like them. That type of formerly noninvolved will number in the millions in the South. ALL over the south.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. Louisiana.

Clinton won it. Gore almost won it.

Obama can win it.

[politicaholic]

3. Agree...but once he hits Brazil it turns back into McCain country.

You know that 36% who still support the war in Iraq? Um...I think they live in the south. Stab in the dark.

[LibertyorDeath]

13. "but once he hits Brazil it turns back into McCain country"

:rofl: Thanx

[Clark2008]

37. Nope... the mid-West.

The mid-West is far more red than the South.

Please look at a map sometime.

[progressive_realist]

4. I think it depends on how the campaign develops

If we get stuck in the "fight over swing states" narrative again, then no. But with Obama's fund-raising and expert campaign management, I think we can take the fight to every state. If Obama becomes the clear national favorite and McCain gets marginalized into a Mondale or Dukakis figure, then we could theoretically run every state except Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. Not saying that's what will happen, but it certainly could.

[NightWatcher]

5. I think he's got Georgia in the Dem column this time

the overwhelming turnout in the primaries as well as the organization of the Obama machine makes me think he can turn Georgia Blue again.

I'll be working for him on the ground as soon as he takes the nom.

[Recursion]

7. GA, LA, AL, MS

I think Florida is unlikely for either of our candidates. But it's not really the south either :evilgrin:

[Maddy McCall]

8. Alabama and Mississippi will go to McCain.

[Recursion]

10. I'll put a dollar on MS going blue

I grew up there. The Democratic party is a lot stronger there than people think.

[Maddy McCall]

11. I LIVE here. It will stay red.

[woolldog]

14. In 2004

In Louisiana only about 300,000 votes out of roughly 2 million separated Kerry and Bush.

In Georgia about 600,000 votes out of roughly 3.2 million votes separated Kerry and Bush.

In South Carolina 270,00 votes out of 1.6 million votes separated Kerry and Bush

In Mississippi about 220,000 votes out of 1.1 million votes separated Karry and Bush

Alabama wasn't close.

So I think with depressed Repbulican turnout and an energized Democratic electorate those states are worth targeting.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004#Election_results

[emilyg]

15. I'm not sure he can win Ga.

[LizW]

38. Alabama will stay red :-(

I live here.

Yes, Republican turnout will be depressed because they don't like McCain here. Democratic turnout will probably be phenomenal, especially in the black belt. The black belt will be blue, and a few other scattered counties. But Jefferson, Shelby and Baldwin will go resoundingly red as they always do.

And don't forget we have a rabidly partisan Republican Secretary of State. I would not be surprised if there is not some minority voter purging before November.

And we know from harsh experience, that if all else fails, they can fix the optical scanners and steal it.

I hate if for the Obama supporters here, but he should go ahead and write Alabama off.

[sandnsea]

9. MS, GA, SC, maybe LA & AR

Yes, Obama at least makes them spend money in the south. If we can campaign there, for a change, maybe we can start shifting the tide overall.

[theboss]

12. In the Deep South? Probably not.

In parts of the South? Yes. I think he can make Virginia, Tennessee, and Georgia interesting.

[Alexander]

16. Deep South - Louisiana. But in the South, also Virginia, Missouri and maybe North Carolina.

[jlake]

17. Strongly disagree.

[texas_indy]

18. Doesn't really matter at this point. We only have 2 options for democratic nominee and Obama

is the most electable. The question is if enough white people can overcome their fear about having a black for president. The more people know him, and learn the truth about him, then it appears from the campaign so far that many folk then decide to vote for him.

Which ones? It could be almost all considering the opponent Obama will run against. It will be so strange to see those 2 in a debate, the 46 year old against the 70 year old trying to get one of them most difficult jobs in the world. I bet they decide to go with the future and not the past.



GET 'ER DONE!!

Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[AlinPA]

19. His cozying up to the RW evangelicals, a selection of a Huckabee-like VP

running mate and MCCain wins the South campaigning on God, Guns, hatred for Gays and waving the Flag.

[cloudythescribbler]

20. Don't forget -- Mississippi is 35% black -- so massive registration/turnout could ...

not only carry the state for the Democrats in the presidential election, but also literally upend the whole politics of the state at the statewide level.

Whether this WILL happen anytime soon is another question -- but there is little doubt that it "CAN" happen.

[mmonk]

21. He'll make inroads in places we haven't seen

Democrats make in presidential elections for a good while.

[sniffa]

22. Agree

Landslide brought it down, down.

[ShadowLiberal]

23. He could win Virginia

I think that Obama could win Virginia, with all of those more upscale white democrat votes, and plenty of African Americans. Plus the northern suburbs that are a democratic stronghold keep on growing and weakening the republican's grip on the state.

Other then that I'm not sure, I would have said Louisiana if it weren't for hurricane Katrina removing a lot more democrats then it did republicans. In southern states that Bush won by less then 10% he may stand a chance if there's enough African Americans there, and somewhat of a growing blue trend.

[Eurobabe]

26. He will Virginia

[jackson_dem]

24. No. The theory is based on black turnout and ignores his poor performance with white southerners

Unless he can somehow produce 300% black turnout there is no way he can win, say, Alabama when he lost the white vote 22-78% in that state in the primary. Whites will slightly outnumber blacks in the Deep South in the general. Right now Obama wouldn't even win Florida so let's get real before we start talking about him winning Alabama and Mississippi. If he somehow wins those states it will be in a 49 state landslide.

[BringBigDogBack]

25. Agree

[elizm]

27. 20% more South Carolinians voted in the Dem. Primary than in the Republican Primary..

With Obama bringing in SO many more new voters to the primary, you just never know! One thing for sure, McCain will damn well have to fight for it and can't take us for granted. Quite coincidentally, South Carolina's motto IS....."WHILE I BREATHE I HOPE". There's that darn HOPE word again! :)

http://www.scstatehouse.net/studentpage/motto.htm

[susankh4]

28. I'd say dream on....

And I know that's what our party is all about right now. Hope and dreams.

Mr. McCain's party won't be interested.

I hope I am wrong.

[napi21]

29. I've lived in the South for 21 years, and if ANY Dem wins the

deep south states, get out the resuscitator baby or I'll be dead! All these years I've been hoping that enough yankees would move south and be enough to change the results, but that hasn't happened YET, and NOTHING is going to change the attitudes of the natives except time when they all get old and die! Hopefully the younger generation will be different, but I'm not even sure of that!

[Perky]

30. VA South Carolina and Mississippi

VA reall is not the south however.



Look... McCain is going to force Iraq to the fron Burner but the american people are bored with the topic.... He may rally the base on that fron but that is about it.. There will be huge AA turnout and moderat whites will move to Obama as well if McCain looks like he does not have much fught in hum on the economic front. The GOP has effectively learned the caule of puting wedge issues on the ballot to get the evangelicals to the polls. They do not have a topic this year....The religious right does not like McCain and they are pretty fracture intetnally.


That is enough in my view to put a couple of states in play.

[ecdab]

31. He can certainly "extend" the contest into the deep south

and force McCain to spend money and resources in places McCain would not to wish to. In terms of winning states in the deep south (which isn't what Steve Murphy said) Obama will remain an underdog against any GOPper but will have a shot at a number of these states (depending upon how "deep south" is defined). But the deep south isn't where this election is going to be won or lost, but having a legitimate 50 state operation will allow Obama to win in the places where the election will be won and lost.

[Tennessee Gal]

32. Tennessee will stay red.

[Warren Stupidity]

33. If he can force McCain to spend money defending the south

and if Obama stays out of the public funding trap, it could be a disaster for McCain even if Obama doesn't actually win any of the southern states.

[easy_b94]

34. I think he can get GA NC LA and maybe SC (If the R's stay home)

[TexasObserver]

35. Yes, Obama will win more Southern states than we've won in a long, long time.

Which is one reason he will win with 35 states.

[chyjo]

36. Just forcing McCain

to divert campaign funds to closer states in the deep south is a victory of sorts. I think that Virginia and Missouri will definitely go to Obama though.

[fujiyama]

39. No win in the deep south

but with enough money, we might be able to force McCain to compete in them...But then again, with a highly energized black turnout, depressed republican turnout for McCain...maybe Obama would do better than some think.

But as far as I can see, he has a chance in VA and some states which are culturally southern like MO (and even parts of OH). He has a stronger chance in mountain west states, IF he can convince them he's not a "gun grabber".