Clinton leads Obama in Rhode Island, 49%-40%

[Bluebear]

Heard this on Boston radio tonight on the way home, for interest's sake...

====


Providence (March 1) - Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race in the Rhode Island Democratic presidential primary by nine points over Barack Obama, according to a poll released yesterday by WPRI-12/RIpolitics.tv.

In the poll of 401 likely voters statewide, 49 percent favored Clinton, 40 percent were for Obama and 11 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by Fleming & Associates, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

http://www.projo.com/news/politics/content/fleming_poll_03-01-08_9T979LD_v9.365c320.html

[FrenchieCat]

1. So it appears to be tightening up there as well......

Good!

[GoreVidalIsGod]

2. Awesome. Clinton had previously been leading 10-15.

[TSIAS]

3. Wonder what the delegate apportionment will be?

I expected Clinton to win by 20-25 percent.

[GoreVidalIsGod]

5. If she wins by a margin of less than 10, she nets 2 delegates.

Obama will net plus 3 with a win of 20% or over in Vermont.

Thus, he will net +1 in the two New England states on Tuesday.

[cali]

12. nope.

Vermont has a strange delegate allocation system. If he wins by 25+ he'll pick up most of the pledged delegates. There was a story in the Burlington Free Press about it last week, in which Eric Davis of Middlebury College, VT's politial guru, explained that if Obama wins by that margin, he'll get 10 or 11 of Vermont's pledged delegates to Clinton's 4 or 5. And only one SD in VT has gone with Clinton. I believe 4 have gone with Obama and 3 are undecided. This is why VT is more important than most people understand.

[Yael]

32. Looks like 5:1 with one undecided

Vermont SD tracker page: http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Vermont_2008_presidential_primary_and_superdelegates

[Bluebear]

6. Dunno. I can tell you there are 32 delegates, it is NOT a winner-take-all state...

and superdelagates from Rhode Island are Patrick Lynch (supporting Obama), William Lynch (his brother, supporting Clinton), Rep. James Langevin (Clinton) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (Clinton).

[MoJoWorkin]

10. Isn't Patrick Kennedy from RI? Is he not a S. delegate?

I'm just asking--too sleepy this morning to go dig into it myself, ha.

[mohc]

28. Although it is not winner-take-all

No state is winner take all for the Democrats by the way, but Vermont only has one district. Therefore all delegates all apportioned based on state wide voting, since statewide and district-wide are equivalent when there is only one district. If VT ends up 65-35, as some polls indicate, Obama would take 6 or 7 district delegates out of the 10, 2 at-large out of the 3, and 1 PLEO out of the 2. That would mean a split of 9 or 10 to 6 or 5. Whether or not Obama would get the extra delegate would depend on how close to 65 he got, over 6.5 rounds up to 7, under down to 6.

For Rhode Island, if the state wide vote is close with Clinton leading, she could still only net 1 delegate. District 1 has 6 delegates, and will most likely split 3-3. The 5 at-large delegates would go 3-2 for Clinton, and the 3 PLEO would go 2-1 for Clinton, giving her a 2 delegate advantage. District 2 has 7 delegates, and Obama could still lose the state wide vote but carry district 2, winning it 4-3. That would leave Clinton with a single extra delegate. Of course we are getting ahead of ourselves, we will have to wait and see how everything turns out.

[Ichingcarpenter]

4. This is Gilligan's isle

with the millionaire and his wife.

If the Obama Storm continues.
The Minnow will be lost.

[Sensitivity]

7. Congratulations to Clinton Supporters! Good job if you can hold RI

[rodeodance]

22. you bet

[cali]

8. Great news!

Obama is making inroads in RI! Woot! And he'll be there today. That should help tighten things up even more. She may win, but she won't win there by much.

[MoJoWorkin]

11. Yes, all he has to do is step off onto the tarmac and he goes up 5 points.

[rodeodance]

27. he will still need more--

[grantcart]

9. Actually its more like 57-43 see below

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4830347

[rodeodance]

19. thanks.

[BringBigDogBack]

13. Cool.

[rodeodance]

14. yes--cool for Clinton

[WonderGrunion]

15. Good for her

Hillary should get a win every now and then so it doesn't get too lopsided.

[rodeodance]

18. agree-----this IS the primaries---Let the people decide.

[totodeinhere]

16. If Obama wins Texas, Ohio, and Vermont...

and loses R. I. then that's a big victory for Clinton. Yea, right. Dream on Clinton supporters.

[marshall]

20. Rhode Island is the new Firewall!

First we thought it was Texas and Ohio. Then it seemed like it was Pennsylvania. Now it's Rhode Island. Wonder what it will be afer that?

[rodeodance]

21. ha ha--you folks get duped by the media over and over.

[rodeodance]

17. Rhode Island for Hillary Announces Hispanic Leadership Council****

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=6254

2/28/2008
Rhode Island for Hillary Announces Hispanic Leadership Council

Providence, RI - Citing Hillary Clinton’s experience in tackling issues important to the Latino community, more than 60 Latino community members and elected officials have signed on to support Senator Clinton as their choice for president. Members of "Latinos for Hillary" have pledged their vote on March 4th and to work vigorously over the next six days to canvass and phone bank in communities across the state to deliver the Latino vote for Hillary Clinton in Rhode Island.

"With Hillary Clinton as president, Latinos know we will have a leader who understands our community and our needs," said Andy Andujar. "Latinos are concerned about the availability of jobs, access to funding for our businesses and a plan for comprehensive immigration reform. Hillary Clinton has the experience and foresight to make significant changes in America and we will work tirelessly to ensure she is our next president."

The list of Rhode Island Latinos endorsing Senator Hillary Clinton follows.

* Rosi Alejo, Cranston
* Maria Alvarado, Providence
* Margarita Amparo, Providence
* Nelson Amparo, Providence
* Andy Andujar, Providence
* Pastor Antonio Aquino, Providence
* Julio Cesar Aragon, Providence
* Bernardo Ardaya, Johnston
* Ingrid C Ardaya, Johnston
* Ingrid G Ardaya, Johnston
* Kennedy Arias, Cranston
* Julio "Julito" Aza, Providence
* Arys Baptista, Providence
* Dr. Antonio Barajas, Central Falls
* Carolina Bernal, Johnston
* Oddan Brito, Providence
* Melida Brito, Providence
* Marisol Camilo, Cranston
* Jorge Cardenas, Providence
* Doris Carvajal, Providence
* Doris De Los Santos, Providence
* Melba Depena, Providence
* Councilwoman Eunice Delahoz, Central Falls
* Rep. Grace Diaz, Providence
* Nolda Estevez, Providence
* Emilio Estevez, Providence
* Nelson Garcia, Providence
* Ward 9 Vice Chairperson Bienvenido Garcia, Providence
* Marisol Garcia, Central Falls
* Liza Gordon, Providence
* Gloria Hincapie, Pawtucket
* Sandra Lake, Providence
* Ysa Luna, Providence
* Josefina Luna, Providence
* Belkiss Luna-Suazo, Providence
* Yana Marcelino, Providence
* Ramon "Chamo" Marte, Providence
* Carlos Martinez, Providence
* Gabriel Martinez, Providence
* Patricia Martinez, Providence
* Marta Martinez, Warwick
* Sabina Matos, Providence
* Sandra Mazo, Pawtucket
* Milagros Medina, Providence
* Alexis Mendez, Providence
* Tony Mendez de Poder 1110, Providence
* Carmen Mirabal, Central Falls
* Eloy Andres Mora, Providence
* Freddy Nunez, Providence
* Jaime Peguero, Providence
* Ramon Pegueso, Providence
* Ramon Peralta Sr., Providence
* Reynaldo Perez, Central Falls
* Judith Perez, Cranston
* Carolina Pichardo, Providence
* Sen. Juan Pichardo, Providence
* Juan Pinales, Providence
* Vivian Ponte, Johnston
* Maria Reyes, Providence
* Freddy Rosario de Poder 1110, Providence
* Maria Salavarrieta, Central Falls
* Esmerelda San Andres, Cranston
* Luca Sano, Providence
* Franklin Solano, Central Falls
* Antonio Suero "Papito Prenda", Providence
* Councilman Luis Leon Tejada, Providence
* Acelia Terrero, Cranston
* Jesus Titin, Providence
* Papo Toribio, Providence
* Sara Vazquez, Providence
* Fior Vina, Providence

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Paid for by Hillary Clint

[rodeodance]

23. Hillary at Rhode Island College---2/27

http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/02/28/045001


Hillary at Rhode Island College
by Craig Auster
2/27/2008 11:50:01 PM

Craig Auster is a senior at Brown University and one of the Co-Chairs of Brown Students for Hillary.

Hillary in Rhode IslandI had the opportunity to attend Hillary's "Solutions for America" rally at Rhode Island College in Providence. It was great to see so many people inspired by Hillary's message of delivering real, substantive change and making a difference in the lives of average Americans. I was especially excited that so many of my fellow students from Brown, Rhode Island College, Providence College, and other schools around the state were also there to cheer on Hillary. I saw young girls holding up hand-made Hillary for President signs and older women with glowing faces as they watched Hillary deliver an amazing speech about universal health care, fixing our economy and making college more affordable.

As an organizer for Hillary at Brown University, though, I was most excited by all the young voters who had come out to support Hillary. All across our state, Hillary is inspiring young women and men to get involved with her history-making campaign. Yesterday's rally proved why Hillary is the best candidate for all Americans - young and old - because she is the only one who can bring affordable health care to people of my generation, who can fix our economy so that there are good jobs whether you went to college or not, and who will make it so that young Americans and their families can finally afford higher education once again. Hillary's speech yesterday showed why she is the candidate that will bring a better future for America, an America that will work once again for people of every generation.

Check out some photos from the rally:---(some good photoes)

[Imagevision]

24. Rhode Island? after March 4th Hillary will go the Huckabee route...

[marshall]

25. Hillary's last stand--South Dakota and Montana?

The ever moving firewall will be South Dakota and Montana if things continue until June as they have progressed so far.

After that, there's always Puerto Rico!

[rodeodance]

26. oh, i think your crystal ball needs a tune-up.

[rodeodance]

29. K

[adoraz]

30. wow only single digits now?

GOBAMA

[rodeodance]

31. Rasmussen daily graph for 3/1/08 - Obama down 2 (45), Clinton up 1 (43)

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Rasmussen daily graph for 3/1/08 - Obama down 2 (45), Clinton up 1 (43)
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4832076#4832076
4832076, Rasmussen daily graph for 3/1/08 - Obama down 2 (45), Clinton up 1 (43)
Posted by DavidD on Sat Mar-01-08 10:19 AM

Uh oh! Let's all scream together!

These graphs are all contained on one Web page at http://www.dvorkin.com/rastrack.html

Gallup now has a daily tracking poll graph:
http://www.gallup.com /








(Pretend that the 10 and 20 lines are actually 0. Does anyone know how to make Excel label different parts of the axis differently?)

Rasmussen links:
Data in tabular form
Discussion