Clinton will not be viable after March 4th, here's why:

[tekisui]

Obama will get more delegates in TX(141 available), the Clinton camp has already said this much. He will get more delegates in VT(15). He will probably nearly split OH(141). Hillary may get a couple more in RI(21).

I think Obama will add 20+ more delegates to his lead. This will put him within 450 delegates of 2,025. If he only receives half of the remaining SuperD's, or about 140, he will be within 310.

After March 4th, 722 Pledged delegates remain.


He could LOSE each remaining contest at 43%, and still reach 2,025.

Of course, if he did, SuperD's would switch. But, that's not going to happen. Further, after March 4th the Primary calender slows way down with only 3 contests in the next 2 months. I don't think Hillary can sustain that period, financially or on the perception of not winning.

on edit, for Clinton:

After March 4th, if she gets the other half of the SuperD's, she will need 444 of the 722 remaining Pledged Delegates, or 61%.

She has only gotten above 59% in one state: Arkansas. Her home state, a month ago.

[tekisui]

1. She will drop soon after Tuesday.

[Zachstar]

2. Thanks for the post.

I had known it would be difficult for her to win at this point. But again looking at the timeline shows absolute doom for her.

Like you said even if she did ok in Texas and Ohio she has to wait until Late April to have a shot at more big states. Every day for the past week has been a disaster for her. Can anyone think of what MONTHS of this will do?

At this point I do not see the supers wanting this to go past Texas. Every day of this is giving the republicans free time.

It is either Obama wins the 4th and the Nomination or The Supers pick the nomination. This thing will be over by April in my view.

[PITBOS]

3. good analysis, but there is still a feeling that HRC

will do ANYTHING to win and you don't want to beleive she's out until she's gone. Next up are her lawsuits.

[karynnj]

5. I think that a lawsuit on this will be the death knell

The Texas rules - as strange as they are - were set months ago. They also likely were designed to give extra control to party insiders likely to both know the rules and motivated to go to the Caucus. Very likely the establishment Democrats (originally Clinton supporters - if not currently so) likely wrote these rules. So - like in Nevada, it will be looked at as trying to change the rules after the game is started.

This hurt their reputation then and doing it again will hurt them more. There is some sense of fair play and changing the rules because you don't like them, because you lost - looks as bad as it is.

[Inuca]

7. Weren't the rules actually set years ago?

I think I remember reading that Bill ran under the same rules. I may be wrong though...

[karynnj]

12. I wasn't 100% that they were identical and the case can be made

even if they weren't - so I opted not to claim things beyond my knowledge.

[KaryninMiami]

8. Agreed- and it will look just as bad as her attempts to grab the FL and MI delegates

Desperate and determined to do whatever possible to hang on. I really do feel badly for her but it's time for her to face the facts- the longer she stays in, the more desperate she looks.

(Love your name, by the way- nice to meet another Karyn).

[adoraz]

4. can't wait for after tuesday to see her drop out

[Scurrilous]

6. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Johnny__Motown]

9. The math just does not seem to matter to Clinton supporters. They have fallen for the "Big State"

argument. As if votes don't count unless they are from states that Hillary says count. Then there is the Florida (and Michigan) problem. They would rather see a lawsuit to overturn DNC rules than lose those delegates. Also they hold out hope that Super delegates will decide to support her after 3/4.

I agree completely with your assessment but you are preaching to the celestial choir.

[grantcart]

10. Your logic is right but some of your numbers are off

Texas Primary 126
Texas Caucus 67

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Democratic_primary%2C_2008

So Texas accounts for almost half of all of the delegates in Tuesday's elections

And delegate distribution based on previous elections helps Obama

in his key demographics



and to make it even more difficult she doesn't have to win states by your number she has to win congressional districts to get an even split for example she would need to get 65% to split a CD with 6 delegates 4-2 and there just are not that many CDs left that have the right numberical make up.

more details here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4782802&mesg_id=4782802

[tekisui]

11. Thanks.

The Texas delegates are a bit lost on me. Also in Ohio, I read about how the delegates are split by district and how in districts with odd numbers have a greater likelihood of giving more delegates to one or the other. The CD with an even number of delegates require a greater margin of win to break a tie.

[tekisui]

13. She cannot win 61% from here on out.

She will gracefully exit, as the writing is on the wall.

[apocalypsehow]

14. K & R.

:thumbsup: