I'm skeptical of all polls, but I need your thoughts on these consistent results.

[CRH]

If the democratic primaries are attracting far more voters than the republican primaries.

If many of the republicans are not happy with their candidate.

If a large majority of the country are unhappy with the direction of the country.

If a large majority of the country feel the economy is poor and/or possibly in recession.

If the majority of the country feel the Bush administration's job performance is poor.

How does Mc Cain consistently poll in a statistical dead heat, with either of the two democratic candidates?

It is hard for me to believe after seven years of Bush administration mismanagement, how this can be true.

Have any thoughts on this?

[Qutzupalotl]

1. I wonder if many polls are weighted using old turnout models.

But I dunno.

[stellanoir]

2. Here's one theory

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/diebold_accidentally_leaks?utm_source=embedded_video

As creepy and depressing as that is I've a deep abiding sense that they will not get away with it this time,

[CRH]

3. I'm on slow speed dial up so I can't load and view this, but thanks for the reply.

And nothing nowadays surprises me or is too creepy for me to weigh in thought.

[stellanoir]

4. It's a mock news segment about

Diebold accidentally releasing the results of the November election ahead of time having a McCain win but it's okay because "our shadowy overlords know what's best for us."

[CRH]

6. Sounds about right, ...

because now I am wondering, just who they are counting in these polls. If people have it together enough to disapprove of the direction of the country, think Bush is doing a bad job, think the economy is bad, etc they should be able to realize McCain is not on the side of change.

[sueragingroz]

8. The scroll on that mockup was hilarious...

[PATRICK]

5. A more normal explanation

Opinion polls based on the critically relevant time are more important than general opinion snapshots at a distance.

The Hillary polls even two weeks ago had her ahead nationally and in the upcoming states. Several factors, weak Hillary support, no Dem partywide resolution to the contest, no real decision yet on Obama seemed to make her campaign seem just as viable as ever.Polls take time to move and movement can be significant if it is coming from a relentless momentum, an obvious decision of the masses. Incredibly to us, or maybe not so, in one way or another it takes time. The presumption of past strength often has people reluctant to get on or admit to the bandwagon in motion. Once it picks up steam, then begins the rout. As in battle, the same forces seem to oppose each other. Then comes a moment of "realization" by both sides about the outcome. The losers fold and make their defeat not only sealed but worse. Superior forces in retreat are now only a mob of vulnerable victims- or surrender.

At present the Dems, along with some independents and GOP defectors are swept up in the primary tide. This is merely different from the distant national election tide where it again is PRESUMED McCain is strong viable and formidable. His bulwarks are supported by multiple fraud including his absurd memes as a "straight shooter" or honest guy.

It takes time and the timely relevant, national engagement. It could ALL be effectively over by the time both conventions are finished. Like Goldwater, the GOP abused faithful will watch critically on Convention night and make pretty much their final decision. That is very very likely to be the last slim chance that will be granted to maintaining the illusion- which illusion will keep the Dems very energized and on the offense. The polls after GOP Convention night might not appear in landslide numbers at that time but the downward momentum will have begun and pretty much irreversibly. Like Goldwater, McCain lacks entirely the enthusiasm of the current establishment to whom he has constantly sold his soul to woo, thus endangering his ONLY base among admiring independents. If it were not for the multi-layered fraud- which may abandon him as well in favor of desperate attempts to salvage LOCAL races- McCain would do well to wish he could exchange places with Goldwater.

So, what I am saying is, that despite the current ratings of particular polls, there is epic trouble ahead for McCain that will make Hillary's slide look like a few gentle pebbles downslope.

[CRH]

7. I do hope you are right about the McCain projection, ...

I have been waiting for some movement in the national polls for presidential candidates, to try to ascertain if one can reasonably expect substantial new seats in both houses of congress. Landslides usually provide coattails for congressional candidates where as a closer presidential election could limit the gains. The retiring republican congressmen on the surface suggests opportunity, but a close presidential contest would indicate, less than a backlash against a deserving republican party in general.

Obama or Clinton will need a solid democratic congress for any new direction to be realized. Republicans never reach far across the partisan divide.

edit for spelling

[CRH]

9. Is it possible the Democratic primary numbers,

are being skewed by a lot of Independents, that are later showing up as McCain voters in the polls?

Have the democrats lost their edge since the mid term election, when a democratic congress on the surface, changed little?

Has press coverage of the democratic congress evened the playing field for the general election, both presidential and congressional?

[cloudythescribbler]

10. The MSM have touted McCain as a "maverick", a "moderate" etc ...

which makes him all the more usable in the electoral arena. After all, a ZERO rating from MAJOR environmental groups? What does one have to do to lose cred as a 'moderate'?