NY Times "A.P. Delegate Projections" numbers

[uppityperson]

http://www.nytimes.com/

A.P. DELEGATE PROJECTIONS
2,025 needed

Delegates:
Barack Obama : (Won on Mar. 4) 88 ... (Won to date) 1,275 ... (Super-delegates) 202 ... (Total) 1,477
Hillary Rodham Clinton : (Won on Mar. 4) 115 ...(Won to date) 1,150 ...(Super-delegates) 241 ... (Total) ... 1,391

Re-edited to say I am not staunchly supporting either, just giving info I found since I didn't find it easily elsewhere. Thanks.

[Window]

1. Thanks.

[ClayZ]

2. Popular vote count to date:

(*Obama Not on Michigan Ballot; Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[uppityperson]

3. Thanks. Pop vote is interesting since it looks like this will go to convention.

And it is good to see how people are voting, even if only delegates matter at this point. Thank you

[ClayZ]

7. Obama will have the popular vote,

and the Delagates.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. 115-88 is wrong.

From the details jump:


March 4
Ohio 66 75 0 0 +Details -
Rhode Island 8 13 0 0 +Details -
Texas 61 65 0 0 +Details -
Vermont 9 6 0 0 +Details -
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html


159 Clinton
144 Obama

And that number is probably wrong, too.

[uppityperson]

6. I just copy/pasted from NYT. Have you other numbers?

Other info? I'm interested in numbers this morning. Thanks.

(I am not a staunch supporter of either)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Just pasted the details into the post w/ link.

Took me a minute to do math.

[uppityperson]

14. I tried clicking on "details" but none show up. Projected vs what they have so far?

Just reporting what they say, thanks for that info, will keep watching. It is close, any way around.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. 27 vs 15. Almost a 100% difference.

By my best guess, HRC will win a single digit delegate advantage. Most likely 8.

[liberal N proud]

5. How many delegates are left?

And what are the odd given that both remain in the race that either one can actually get the nomination before the convention?

Think statistically not if one were to win all.

[uppityperson]

9. Statistically? Odds? No predictions from me. Another webpage for you...

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
My math says 611 left, taken from the above page.

March 8 Wyoming 12
March 11 Mississippi 33
April 22 Pennsylvania 158
May 3 Guam 4
May 6 Indiana 72
North Carolina 115
May 13 West Virginia 28
May 20 Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
June 3 Montana 16
South Dakota 15
June 7 Puerto Rico 55

[jzodda]

8. This is not a final tally. The Texas Caucus is still being counted

We don't even have a winner yet and at CNN the count registered at 36% with Obama ahead. Remember that will account for 1/3 of the total Texas delegates.

[uppityperson]

11. Hence "Projections"

[jzodda]

13. Wrong..they are not factoring that into the projections

[uppityperson]

15. Huh? AP Projections aren't factoring what into projections?

Do you mean TX isn't in the projections yet since they are still counting? Got it. These numbers will and are changing as all the votes get counted. They are not a final tally, but projections based on what is known and will change. Not set in stone.

[jzodda]

17. They are factoring in the primary results but not the caucus results

so those projections are accurate but leave out 1/3 of the Texas delegates which is still outstanding and still being counted.

[uppityperson]

18. Perhaps they would be more accurate saying "as of now, stand by for updates"

I think most people want to know the final result, but posted this info based on whatever has happened and things are still happening to change the numbers. Good thought to not take this as "this is HOW it is", but an ongoing process. As I take "projected" since I don't trust the numbers until all the votes are counted, and even then doubt them.

[jzodda]

19. I'm with you

I don't trust the numbers till they are all counted. It seems every network seems to have different projections as well. What a mess :)

[book_worm]

10. And 58 delegates at stake in WY and Mississippi within the week

Obama will win the lions share of both.

[housewolf]

20. This page lays it all out pretty clearly

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ohio-texas-vermont-and-rhode-island.html

It shows the delegate allocations from last night by state, as well as how many are still to be allocated, total delegate counts, super-delegate counts, and number of delegates still needed for each candidate.

Check it out, if you want numbers it's a good source.

[uppityperson]

21. Thank you for that page.

Will check back later tonight, maybe tomorrow, see what happens by then.