Hillary narrowly won three primaries out of the last 15. Three.

[Capn Sunshine]

I knew it would come to this. Mathematically eliminated, now she has a reason to stay in. Everyone on this board acts like she landslided Obama into oblivion.

A pyhrric victory at best; she owes her victory in Texas to republican crossovers intent on keeping the gunfire alive so McBush can make nice with his base (the press)

She owes her victory in Ohio to a slick lie about NAFTA that entailed the cooperation of a right wing government to effect it ( Recanted day after the election)

Yet with all the hoo-hah , what's the bottom line?

Obama leads in delegate counts. And there's no foreseeable way for Hillary to catch up

Popular vote:
Popular Vote Total - -
Obama 12,946,615

Hillary 12,363,897

It's a tie. After all this Obama leads by roughly half a million votes.

If you include MI and FLA it gets even tighter. I think current total shows HRC up by 30,000 or so.

Now , seeing as how she's eliminated mathematically, what to do? She's going to ride this out to the convention. Because she can. And, despite my feelings to the contrary, about half the party agrees with her approach and organization. I'm not going to ignore them. THEY on the other hand, have made careers of ignoring us. But that's politics. SO. It comes down to what we do with Michigan and Florida, the ACTUAL firewalls of the Clinton campaign.

Who would have thought an organization and group of individuals who fought Howard Dean's leadership and the 50-state strategy tooth and nail, would find itself having it's entire political life and future viability dependent on HOWARD DEAN to make the decision?

IS LIFE FUNNY OR WHAT? WHAT AN ULTIMATE CODA TO THE DEAN CAMPAIGN!

[flyarm]

1. yes and she has won all the biggest states and most liberal ..your point is?? oh Utah?????

wow Utah will help us win in Nov...but NY , Calif, NJ, Fla, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio, Mass,RI ..and the rest..sheeeeet..they don't matter a bit..

oh and hold back the bull about Obama not bwing able to come into my state of Fla..where he lost by 17%..he was the only one who broke his own pledge to not campaign in FLa..he was the only one who had commericals running here..and he was the very first to say he would seat our delegates just days after he signed that pledge..and before the ink was dry ..

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/sep/30/obama-vows-do-whats-right/?news-breaking

Barack Obama held an impromptu news conference after a Tampa fundraiser Sunday.


By WILLIAM MARCH and ELAINE SILVESTRINI The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 30, 2007



TAMPA - Barack Obama hinted during a Tampa fundraiser Sunday that if he's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he'll seat a Florida delegation at the party's national convention, despite national party sanctions prohibiting it.

Obama also appeared to violate a pledge he and the other leading candidates took by holding a brief news conference outside the fundraiser. That was less than a day after the pledge took effect Saturday,and Obama is the first Democratic presidential candidate to visit Florida since then.Obama and others have pledged not to campaign in Florida until the Jan. 29 primary except for fundraising, which is what he was doing in Tampa.

But after the fundraiser at the Hyde Park home of Tom and Linda Scarritt, Obama crossed the street to take half a dozen questions from reporters waiting there.
The pledge covers anything referred to in Democratic National Committee rules as "campaigning," and those include "holding news conferences."

Obama seemed unaware the pledge he signed prohibits news conferences. Asked whether he was violating it, he said, "I was just doing you guys a favor. … If that's the case, then we won't do it again."



save the silly stuff..the rest of us know the truth about your beloved Obama..

eom

[Justitia]

4. Which ANY Democrat will win ANYWAY. Got any NEW blood? -eom

[flyarm]

21. seems your "NEW BLOOD" couldn't close the deal with the real dems though!! eom

[Justitia]

24. Who has won the most states and the most delegates so far? -eom

[goodgd_yall]

39. It's not only how many states

it's WHAT states too. This is what the superdelegates are going to have to consider.

[FrenchieCat]

43. Like Middle Age White Women will vote for McCain over Obama

and forget about reproductive rights and the Supreme Court. :sarcasm:

The Big Blue States that Hillary has won in the primary, Obama can win in the GE.

It is Hillary who needs Obama's voters. They are the ones that won't go easily following on her bandwagon; Blacks, independents, new voters and young voters aren't as transferable as Hillary supporters would like to think.

[Cha]

69. And people who think hilary's

a fucking dino who started conniving for the presidency in Oct, 2002(and no doubt before) when she cavalierly sent Soldiers off to die and Iraqis at the mercy of the bombs.

[goodgd_yall]

37. Not so---we haven't done that successfully in the last 2 elections.

So it IS important to win the states that USUALLY go Democratic.

[Justitia]

46. Yeah, because we are in real danger of CA going republican - LOL. -eom

[Capn Sunshine]

68. Actually closer than you think

Ever hear of the fish hook strategy?

It's how Arnold won CA . From The Rose Report:

When Bush and other Republicans were winning in the 1980s, they relied on what Republican strategists called the “fishhook.” Rural counties in Northern California comprised the shank of the political fishhook, which continued through the fast-growing “Inland Empire” counties of San Bernardino and Riverside and then hooked northward into San Diego and Orange counties.

If a Republican candidate ran up big margins in the fishhook, they would offset the big Democratic vote in the San Francisco Bay Area. A central tenet in the fishhook strategy, however, was that Los Angeles County, with more than a quarter of the state’s population, would divide fairly evenly and be, in essence, a nonfactor.
***
Schwarzenegger’s re-election indicates, perhaps, that while Los Angeles remains a very blue county, its influence is not invulnerable under the circumstances of a centrist Republican facing an unabashedly liberal Democrat.

[Capn Sunshine]

6. the Big states meme doesn't work

How about we come back with the Red States meme?
Hillary did NOT win the "Big States" in a landslide. Obama proved he can win the Red States. Hillary proved she can take a 20 point lead in the "big States" and lose it all.

That is why Barack Obama has an insurmountable delegate lead.

[Strelnikov_]

17. Yea, winning those 'most liberal' states is all we need to take the GE n/t

[ClayZ]

2. Finally, some sunshine on the situation.

Thank you, Capn Sunshine!


K and R

[rinsd]

3. Obama owed his moving up in OH to his lies about Hillary and NAFTA

And in Texas?

Obama won the Republicans vote (9% of the total) 53 to 46.

So tell me again how Hillary is depending upon Republican crossover votes?

[Capn Sunshine]

10. Lies? Like Hillary was in favor of, and PROUD of NAFTA?

vs the RW Canadian Gov't statement implying Obama was infavor?

Nice try , but truth is truth.

[knight_of_the_star]

16. So that's all something Hillary orchestrated?

Since you seem to be implying that Cap'n

[rinsd]

25. If Hillary was proud of NAFTA, then so was Obama. Both candidates have been misleading on this.

The mailer quotes Hillary Clinton as saying "NAFTA has been good for New York and America." That quote, however, is taken out of context. She also said in that same news conference that NAFTA was flawed and old trade deals needed to be revisited.

Obama's mailer goes on to ask, "Is Hillary Clinton running away from her own record on trade deals that have cost Ohio nearly 50,000 jobs?" It then lists various quotes from Clinton on NAFTA, the most recent of which is a truncated version of the senator's remarks. The mailer quotes Clinton saying in Jan. 2004, "I think on balance NAFTA has been good for New York and America." As we said previously, the full context of those remarks, made in response to questions in a news teleconference, shows that Clinton advocated revisiting and renegotiating trade agreements. In that teleconference, she said she "always thought" that old trade agreements should be revisited and that environmental, health and labor standards should be added. "I think that we need a re-thinking of our trade policies," she said.

The Clinton campaign has sent out its own misleading mailer on NAFTA, trying to convince Ohio voters that Obama has praised the trade agreement in the past. Campaign rhetoric aside, the two candidates' positions on NAFTA are virtually the same.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118228

[bellasgrams]

55. Capn, the truth is the truth, why can't you state the facts thruthfully?

[KoKo]

5. I hope Obama is dumping Austen Goolsby...n/t

[Capn Sunshine]

13. it wasn't realy Goolsby's fault. The Canadian Gov't retracted the story this AM

he was just a convenient fall guy.

[boston bean]

7. they were doozies though!!!! not some tiny little caucus state with 30k voters. nt

[Tom Rinaldo]

8. At least be honest about it

Rhode Island: Cinton 58% Obama 40%, narrow? Ohio: Clinton 54% Obama 44%, narrow?

Texas, OK, that was pretty narrow.

[truedelphi]

14. And O's previous eleven or twelve victories in a row??

Oh I forgot - the voters had not yet had time to get to know Obama...

[Capn Sunshine]

18. No Tom. My point is it's the RACE that's narrow

Rhose island? what was that Like 25,000 to 20,000?

The point is here and obvious.

Obama has an insurmountable delegate lead.
Hillary has a reason to stay in even though she can't win.

woo-hoo.

[islandmkl]

9. there are those who will point out which states she has won..

and seem to conclude that winning the BIG states and 'liberal' states makes her the 'stronger' candidate...

how about we count all the votes, after all the primaries, and see what the total score is...

we'll see then who wants to use the 'system' to secure the nomination, in case the votes don't accomplish it for them..


typo edit

[aquart]

11. The problem for Obama is, it was the last three and not the first.

Today was supposed to Hillary's funeral, not her resurrection. The pundits have been eulogizing her for days.

Obama was supposed to be an unstoppable express gathering steam with every state...OOPS.

BIG, BIG OOPS.

Perception is all. Suddenly, your fella is a loser.

[juajen]

12. Only one of those states could be considered a narrow win, you know that.

Ohio and Rhode Island were great wins, and you know that. This is the second time I've seen this spin, and it's wrong, and you know that.

Oh, I forgot; Republican cross over votes are usually Obama's, not Clinton's, but, you certainly know that. You're funny!

[Capn Sunshine]

20. ironic, NO?

That crossover thing cuts both ways. That took Texas for sure. Now as to Ohio vote totals:

Obama 981,032

Clinton : 1,207,861

226,000 votes. That's narrow to me. But I live in a city in Ventura County that has more people than that.

My point is more about how it all comes down to HOWARD DEAN

[Sir Jeffrey]

15. This doesn't come down to FL and MI...

this thing is over. Obama is going to end the primary with the most votes, most pledged delegates, and most states won.

[Capn Sunshine]

23. Obama will be the winner, this is true. Hillary has no way to catch him

So the question is, WHY hang?

Better yet, why hang your entire political career on Howard Dean? So you can cry foul?

[Sir Jeffrey]

41. Several theories...

1. She wants to ruin Obama for the GE and run in 2012. A lot of speculation abounds that McCain is a one-termer because of age and all the warmongering he'll do.

2. She is power mad and came so close to have it all taken away by a newcomer. That stings.

3. Her advisers are an echo chamber that keep her going for their own selfish reasons (money).

4. Maybe a significant percentage of the party wants no part of cleaning up Bush's messes and thinks they can bully McCain into accepting withdrawal from Iraq. Whoever withdraws from Iraq gets slimed as being a defeatist.

5. Washington loyalties run deep. It is inarguable that McCain and the Clintons genuinely like each other. Maybe they just hate Obama personally.

I don't think they are in this contest solely to win it. If that was the case, they would have pulled out after it became highly improbable for them to win. At this point, they cannot win without stealing it from the candidate who will end up with the most votes, pledged delegates, and states.

There is something else driving them, and I do not think it is a desire to do good or be Obama's VP.

[LulaMay]

19. Yes, the most crucial of states for a GE. Does strategy mean nothing to Obama supporters?

[Capn Sunshine]

27. It obviously didn't to Kerry

My point is , this is a tie that will be decided by Howard Dean.

Obama will maintain his delegate lead and his popular vote lead.
Hillary will stay in it for power purposes.

Howard Dean will have to decide how to handle Fla and Mi to avoid the Clinton Campaign's howls of foul.

[flyarm]

36. he does that at the risk of alienating hispanic and seniors..and women

oh and in Texas and Ohio..Obama split the men with Hillary...

all the ones who do the grunt work for the dem party and who dig the deepest in $$$$ for the dem party..

he has a dilema...and to start..he is not too well liked here in Fla now..in fact among dems..he is public enemy#1


gee where do they need the electoral votes from?..ahhh yes the big states ...with some small thrown in..

how many big states are you as a dem willing to lose...because i can assure you..fla will not go to Obama

how many of the closed states that only dems could vote has Obama won..oh none you say???

and many Edwards supporters believe ( rightly or wrongly) that Howard pushed Edwards out..so Howard has to watch his step very carefully right now..


fly

[goodgd_yall]

29. Don't you know?

Obama can work miracles and actually have Utah, Montana, Idaho, and Alabama---with a whopping number of 19 electoral votes---actually go to the Democrats this time?

[flyarm]

51. gee Florida alone beats all of those states combined ..with 25!!

Obama is 16% behind McCain in Fla..right now.

and i can't find many dems here who want vote for him..seems the older folk have this guy figured out ..ot they think they do..they do not like his health plan..one bit..and these older folks have health care figured out..they get it!!

and AS a former elected delegate..that goes to many many dem club meetings and DEC meetings..i keep getting the wispers from people, ( no one wants to say it out loud) that they will vote MCCain over Obama..and these people are lifelong dems ..but many military retired, nurses retired, teachers retired..we have lots of retired here in Fla....and they do not like Obama.

two days ago i was sitting at my condo pool ..many retired where i am..and about 30+ people were talking about the election at the pool..and over and over ..all 30 said they would not vote for Obama..i asked why..and the same words came up..they hate his health care plan..and they do not trust him..they think he is a snake oil salesman...without enough experience. They do not think he has paid his dues..and he has not earned their respect. They think he is arrogant..

i argued the Supreme court..and they said they didn't give a damn at this point in their lives..they don't trust Obama...they are more worried about their social security and having helaht care..and their medicines..and their kids families having health insurance..that is a very big deal to the elderly..and retired...they want their kids to have pensions..and be able to retire themselves..they are worried about the dissapearing middle class...much more than they are worried about the supreme court.

that is what i heard over and over and these older folks were all agreeing with each other..all said they would cross over snd vote McCain if Obama was the nominee...because they know McCain..and they trust his experience..but all agreed..the Clinton years were good years..and they really want Hillary...much more than McCain.

and yes these are folks that vote...and contribute.



just a little fyi from around the pool in Fla..
fly

[Bluestar]

22. If the Obama revolution is such a freight train that can't be stopped

why hasn't he put her away yet? The answer is because the base of the Democratic party doesn't want that to happen. You can't win any general election without winning your base.

[Capn Sunshine]

33. You are confused about something

Hillary has her own "base". Granted, it's roughly half the party. The BASE opposed the war, and gets called "Leftists" by the Clintons and their partisans regularly.

There is the BASE and then there's the base.

The whole reason we articulated the Obama candidacy was to try to overcome the establishment wing so we could return to Democrats standing for our core values, not a triangulated mishmash of what maintains your power base. How's it going this cycle? Pretty Damn good. We have an insurmountable delegate lead and more popular votes.

[Bluestar]

48. I would say a lot of Democrats still want Hillary

Seeing as how he out-spent her on advertising 3 or 4 to 1 in Texas and Ohio.

What bothers me is that Barack is so popular with Republicans. It's true we don't have a true progressive running in this race, but he just seems to lean farther to the right than she does. Quoting scripture and asking for an "amen" in his speeches seems like code to the Fundies, the people we have been fighting for fifteen years.

[flyarm]

56. the senior dem base in Fla is for Hillary big time!

and that is a huge base.

the seniors i talk to remember good times under the Clintons..their houses appreciated so they could use the equity for retirement..and they got good equity..with the appreciation, they got great returns on their stock investments..most of them that is..they saw a lousy economy under the repigs turn around to become a strong economy..they saw Clinton Paying off the debt..all things the senior like..they like stability..and they remember stability under the Clintons..

do not for a moment underestimate seniors..they vote..and they contribute ..both $$ and their time and elbow grease..

fly

[David Zephyr]

26. And she will lose the next two when the record will be Obama: 14 / Hillary: 3

And she refuses to release her tax returns. What are they hiding?

[flyarm]

57. she will win PA...another big state,...and an important state. eom

[MojoMojoMojo]

28. "half the party agrees with her"

"And, despite my feelings to the contrary, about half the party agrees with her approach and organization."
I thought the recent poll said 69% of Democrats want her to continue if she won either Tx or Ohio.

[Capn Sunshine]

40. I'm talking vote totals

There's plenty of Obama partisans who think Hill should stay in because it's good publicity for the eventual winner.

Unlike the insane diatribic posters on DU , in the real world, you have to respect half your party.

I say again, me and Hill go way back. I've always loved her. But her organization is just not capable of the landslide we are looking for in November.

[PurityOfEssence]

30. She took Rhode Island by 18 points and Ohio by 10; what the fuck are you talking about?

Rhode Island may be the smallest state, but it's the second most densely populated one, with more than half again as many people as Vermont. By population, Vermont is #49, Rhode Island #43.

She took Texas by 4 points; hardly a squeaker.

[MercutioATC]

38. She hasn't taken Texas yet...the caucus delegates haven't been counted.

Even if she splits the caucus delegates 50/50 (and Obama is actually ahead in the caucus with 37% of the vote in), her "win" in Texas is worth a whopping 4 delegate gain to her...

[Capn Sunshine]

44. I'm talking about 226,000 votes

In the scheme of things, not a big number. Percentages are misleading.

and her delegate count-which shows she can not catch up to Obama.

[galadrium]

67. She won Ohio with a lot of Republicans helping her stay in the race

Rush has been telling people for weeks to vote for Hillary, so she can stay in the race and screw up the party's chances for winning.

[yardwork]

31. A tie is a tie. And nobody knows how the Super Delegates will vote.

Hillary is not "mathematically eliminated."

[Capn Sunshine]

she is by delegate count

or by total number of states, or popular votes.

I'm acknowledging it's a significant number backing Hill, but if you do the math she's lost.

[yardwork]

32. Dupe

[WCGreen]

34. HC won by ten in Ohio...

That is not a narrow win...

Texas was a narrow win...

Ohio, not so much...

And neither was RI...

So please, be consice...

It makes you look more legitimate when you do...

[LulaMay]

42. and a landslide in FL...300,000 more votes than McCain. Obama LOST both,what's your point?

[truebrit71]

45. Did Obama campaign in that non-delegate state? No? Then your point is moot...

...

[LulaMay]

50. Yes, he ran commercials. She didn't. He'd lose it again. He lost Ohio at his peak.

[truebrit71]

52. She WON OH by significantly LESS then she was supposed to...

...his commercials were NATIONAL tv ad buys and you know it...stop being intellectually dishonest..

[LulaMay]

54. That's the nature of elections. He LOST. He'd lose FL again too.

[truebrit71]

60. Not if he campaigned there he wouldn't...I don't think certain Floridians would be too happy...

...with where HRC has been getting her cash infusion from...

[flyarm]

58. ahhh yes he did ..he was the only one who ran commericals that were seen in Fl..so please ...

get your facts right..Obama got permission from SC to run commercials that hit fla..and he was the only candidate that broke his "pledge" to not campaign in Fla..his commericals were seen for almost 1 week before the fla election all over florida on the cable news stations..

i don't care if he got permission from god himself..he broke his pledge and none of the other candidates did..

and furthermore..before the ink was dry on the pledge he signed..he was the first and only candidate before our election in Fla to say he would most likely seat the fla delegates...

and he did a presser ..that no other candidate did..so..please get your facts right..

Obama did campaign with commericals in Fla before the election and he knew damn well he was sending commericals into fla because he went to the SC dem leaders and asked permission..that does not negate the fact that he broke his pledge ..and none of the other candidates did!

seems our little obama lies about more than a few things..and is a sneaky cheat as well!..and if you think the Florida voters don't know it..i have a bridge for you!!

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2007/sep/30/obama-vows-do-whats-right/?news-breaking
Barack Obama held an impromptu news conference after a Tampa fundraiser Sunday.


By WILLIAM MARCH and ELAINE SILVESTRINI The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 30, 2007



TAMPA - Barack Obama hinted during a Tampa fundraiser Sunday that if he's the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, he'll seat a Florida delegation at the party's national convention, despite national party sanctions prohibiting it.

Obama also appeared to violate a pledge he and the other leading candidates took by holding a brief news conference outside the fundraiser. That was less than a day after the pledge took effect Saturday, and Obama is the first Democratic presidential candidate to visit Florida since then.Obama and others have pledged not to campaign in Florida until the Jan. 29 primary except for fundraising, which is what he was doing in Tampa.

But after the fundraiser at the Hyde Park home of Tom and Linda Scarritt, Obama crossed the street to take half a dozen questions from reporters waiting there.
The pledge covers anything referred to in Democratic National Committee rules as "campaigning," and those include "holding news conferences."

Obama seemed unaware the pledge he signed prohibits news conferences. Asked whether he was violating it, he said, "I was just doing you guys a favor. … If that's the case, then we won't do it again."

[truebrit71]

62. Nice try but WRONG!!!

...National tv ad buys...Obama doesn't have the say as to where the airwaves go...

[WCGreen]

65. Your choice of words matter...

They reflect on you...

If you are happy spreading the word that a ten point spread is a narrow election...

Then I believe Faux News has a spot just for you...

[MojoMojoMojo]

35. slick lie about NAFTA

"She owes her victory in Ohio to a slick lie about NAFTA that entailed the cooperation of a right wing government to effect it ( Recanted day after the election)"
Obama lie was slick ,I'll grant you that.
Hillary had nothing to do with the story .She pointed it out like Obama has been pointing out her IWR vote.
Its no more negative than Obamas campaigning.

[Capn Sunshine]

47. You don't think there was collusion?

It's got Mark Penn's autograph all over it.

[flyarm]

59. ahhh yeah..just like Obama blame someone else..thats his MO..seems familiar to me

this kind of behavior...bbbbb bbbbb bbbbbbb ush...ahhh i am not willing to go for a replay.

fly

[redqueen]

53. Nah... it did help, but it's not the reason she won.

Obama's campaign predicted that loss months ago.

[Capn Sunshine]

63. To be honest, we closed much closer than we expected

IMO the NAFTA thing turned the tide

[LaPera]

49. The woman knows how to win the big states that count...watch her kick ass in PA to add another!

[Independent-Voter]

66. Maybe. PA has plenty of low-educated white women that don't pay attention to politics

That's exactly HRC's prime demographic. Just sayin'

[Scurrilous]

61. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Cha]

64. Dean and Obama..50 State Strategy!

Excellent Analysis, Capn! B-)

[awaysidetraveler]

70. Obama won Texas, CNN reports.

There aren't two Texas elections; there's one Texas election with two parts.

Obama gained 4 delegates over Hillary in the Texas election, and he won 56% of the caucus. That puts him over in the popular vote as well.

Texas Primary: Clinton 64/ Obama 60
Texas Caucus: Obama 38/ Clinton 30

Hillary gained 15 delegates over Obama in Ohio

Ohio Primary Clinton 77/ Obama 62/ Edwards 2

The Vermont and RI Primaries canceled one another out.

Vermont Primary: Obama 9/ Clinton 6

Rhode Island Primary: Clinton 12/Obama 9

HRC's base is rallying around the Pyrric victory of eleven delegates.