Map of my Mississippi county level projection based on demographic characteristics

[usregimechange]

Four factors were considered in my projections: Percentage of elderly individuals (65+), percentage of Blacks, percentage of whites, and percentage of individuals with a Bachelors degree or higher. The data was drawn from the 2000 US census.

Percentages were considered significant based on the following cut-offs:

50% or greater Black concentration
80% or greater white concentration
30% or greater with a Bachelors degree or higher
16% or greater persons 65 years and over

Obama does well in the western part of the state due to massive Black concentrations. He also picks up Jasper, Kemper, Noxubee, and Clay counties in eastern Mississippi due to 50% plus Black concentrations. He does well in Madison (North Jackson suburbs), Lafayette (home of Ole Miss), and Oktibbeha (home of Mississippi State University) counties due to meeting the 30% or greater higher educational cutoff. Look for Obama to run up his numbers particularly in populous Hinds county (urban Jackson) which does not meet the higher educational cutoff (but almost does) and meets the Black population cutoff with 65.9%.

Clinton does well in the northeast and southeastern portions of the state due to high white population percentages. In Harrison county (Gulfport and Biloxi), which has the highest persons per square mile concentration in the state (326 Persons/Sq Mile), Clinton could run up her numbers and I believe the county is favorable to her, although it did not meet any of the cutoffs. She can also run up her numbers in DeSoto County which contains the highly populated Memphis suburbs.

East Jackson suburb county of Rankin looks to be a crucial battleground as it is both more educated and younger and at the same time significantly Caucasian.



http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Seth77

[usregimechange]

1. If any candidate starts winning the others counties look for it to be a long night for the opponent

[K Gardner]

2. Bookmarking, thanks !

[usregimechange]

3. Kicking

[usregimechange]

4. This is sinking like a rock, I guess I should have been less objective...

That is GD-P for you.

[scheming daemons]

5. K/R for a very good thread

[Zynx]

6. I once posted a detailed analysis of Virginia and it went straight to the bottom.

[usregimechange]

7. Damn, PM it to me the next time!

[alteredstate]

8. kicked and recommended

and bookmarked.

Thanks!

[RBInMaine]

9. What do you think the final may look like? Does Obama take it?

If so, by how much? Go ahead, take a stab. What are things looking like on the ground. I know Obama comes there tomorrow. He has had surrogates there.

[usregimechange]

10. Dems come within 20% of winning MS when they carry Hinds and a few river counties, I can't imagine

Obama not winning by at least 10%. My guess is Obama by 18%.

[TacticalPeek]

12. I'll take the under on that for 20 quatloos.

:patriot:





:patriot:

[City Lights]

11. k, r, & b. Thanks, as always, usregimechange!

:-)

[usregimechange]

15. Your welcome!

:hi:

[Zachstar]

13. Thanks for the info!!

Here is to the hope of a BIG Obama victory on the 11th

GOBAMA!!

[Altair]

14. A big factor are 2 competitive Republican Congressional primaries ... seen on this map

The races are in the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts- the most conservative districts. White voting in the Democratic primary in those districts should be reduced by that fact. There's no competitive Republican race in the 4th district, though- Hillary should do well there.

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/congressional_map.pdf

[usregimechange]

19. Did know that, this should reduce cross over voting, which I think is a positive for Obama in MS

[Altair]

20. No doubt, I love my state, but politics here is black/white

myself being one exception. I was deeply disappointed in the polls showing the continued black/white split but I guess I should have expected it. I run around in an educated, progressive crowd and we all support Obama but you get out in the country and it's very different.

But the Congressional races are lucky for Obama- they each have drawn 5 or 6 candidates because the Republican primary basically is the election in those districts. So those races will suck in a lot of white voters who would otherwise be voting Hillary.

[TacticalPeek]

25. Welcome to DU.

I agree those races will suck.

:)

[usregimechange]

30. Welcome to DU!

[writes3000]

16. I appreciate the info and the effort. Thanks. n/t

[NJSecularist]

17. Thanks for the info

Did you create and color code that map all by yourself?

[usregimechange]

21. Well I started with a blank map but yes

[JimGinPA]

18. As Always, Great Job

K&R

[yellerpup]

22. Good work!

Very well thought out and nicely displayed. K&R!

[thoughtcrime1984]

23. Thanks for the effort! nt

[quakerboy]

24. kick cause maps are interesting.

[usregimechange]

26. Your welcome!

[ellisonz]

27. GOBAMA!

[usregimechange]

28. kicking for others

[hogwyld]

29. Thank you for your fine work!

K & R to be sure that others see this.

[usregimechange]

31. I am the most unsure about Desoto county, it is young...

[usregimechange]

32. Kicking for those watching county level returns

[usregimechange]

33. 15% in in Harrison co and Obama up there, Clinton can not lose this county

Most populous white repuke county.

[usregimechange]

34. She lost Battleground Harrison and looks to lose battleground Rankin

Its over folks

[usregimechange]

35. There is one more of my projected clinton counties out many more Obama counties to come

[usregimechange]

36. I count 12 more Obama counties to come in

[usregimechange]

37. I suspect his lead will be about 25%